Vosem
Atlas Icon
Posts: 15,641
Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09
|
 |
« on: June 02, 2023, 11:41:24 AM » |
|
On the one hand, this is a good poll for Beshear; it's a Republican-affiliated pollster and has had a Republican house effect in the past, so a tie in this poll might mean that he's leading at the moment.
On the other hand, it's a pretty bad one: when you go into the details it looks like a way more Democratic electorate than you'd expect from Kentucky (recalled vote is Trump+16, rather than the reality of Trump+26; you'd expect a little less than the real margin, because some people will always mistakenly believe that they voted for the winner, but 10 points is a lot); if there's a Trump+16 electorate then Beshear should be doing much better than a tie.
Pick your narrative.
|
