Who wins Duval County, Florida?

[Vosem]

The Democrat, unless the GOP nominee is winning in a landslide; it's probably not even part of DeSantis's minimal victory coalition. Jacksonville has trends similar to Atlanta, where much of the migration it's getting is African-American; it's trended Democratic at every 21st-century election and actually sort of rapidly. Yes, DeSantis did win it comfortably at the 2022 gubernatorial election, but relative to the state of Florida he actually didn't do all that well there (and in the context of a giant statewide landslide, he did kind of awfully):

Duval County/FL (POTUS or Gov)/Duval County lean:
2000: R+17/D+0/R+17
2002: R+23/R+13/R+10
2004: R+16/R+5/R+11
2006: R+20/R+7/R+13
2008: R+2/D+3/R+5
2010: R+6/R+1/R+5
2012: R+3/D+1/R+4
2014: R+13/R+1/R+12
2016: R+2/R+1/R+1
2018: D+5/R+1/D+6
2020: D+3/R+3/D+6
2022: R+11/R+19/D+8

The 2022 gubernatorial election was the furthest left Duval's been, relative to the state, in the 21st century. It outright swung left between 2014 and 2022, even though the state of Florida swung right by 18 points. It totally remains winnable for the GOP -- DeSantis obviously still won it by double-digits, and at the local level it's still GOP-controlled. But my guess is that if Democrats lose here they've already lost nationally.