Maybe Culberson, TX. Very small and only Biden +3 (compared to Clinton +23), so any further movement with Rio Grande Hispanics could flip the county, although I'm not sure whether that movement will occur.
Muskegon, MI was Clinton +2 and Biden +1; it went from voting left of the state to voting to the right of the state. Assuming that Biden can't expand his margin in MI by much in 2024 (if he's able to win it at all), Muskegon probably goes for Trump.
Other counties that Biden only won very narrowly, and by a smaller margin than Clinton:
- Stanislaus, CA
- Baldwin, GA
- Jasper, SC
- Pasquotank, NC
- Jackson, IL
I think Jackson IL had an unusual circumstance in 2020, with most students at SIU Carbondale not being present to vote; even though it's declining over time I think Jackson will trend left in 2024 and shouldn't vote Republican outside of a comfortable victory.
Jasper SC used to be a very black rural county, but recently it's had a flood of white retirees coming in; it's honestly kind of surprising it still voted D in 2020, it did so only by 107 votes, and it seems like "rural old Black Belt" and "retiree haven" are the two most certain categories to trend Republican. I think it might be the single likeliest Clinton-Biden county to vote R in 2024 in America. The other suggestions are good too, to be clear, but that one seems best: I think Jasper votes Republican in 2024 even in the event of an epochal Democratic landslide.
