Most likely Clinton-Biden-Trump county?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

There is bound to be at least one, what will it be?

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Maybe Culberson, TX. Very small and only Biden +3 (compared to Clinton +23), so any further movement with Rio Grande Hispanics could flip the county, although I'm not sure whether that movement will occur.

Muskegon, MI was Clinton +2 and Biden +1; it went from voting left of the state to voting to the right of the state. Assuming that Biden can't expand his margin in MI by much in 2024 (if he's able to win it at all), Muskegon probably goes for Trump.

Other counties that Biden only won very narrowly, and by a smaller margin than Clinton:

• Stanislaus, CA
• Baldwin, GA
• Jasper, SC
• Pasquotank, NC
• Jackson, IL

[I’m not Stu]

A rural RGV county in Texas?

[Xing]

I would bet on Muskegon, Michigan. It followed the trajectory of a lot of Midwestern counties, but just stayed narrowly Democratic in 2016, and came even closer to flipping in 2020. I'd feel more confident about predicting it than any of the narrow wins for Biden in Texas, since he could always rebound a bit with Latinos.

[GregTheGreat657]

Carlton, MN

[Leroy McPherson fan]

Here are a few

Duval county Texas
Starr county Texas
Maverick county Texas
Culberson county Texas

Stanislaus California

Rockland New York

St. Francis county Arkansas
Lee county Arkansas
Desha county Arkansas

Miami Dade county Florida (longshot but it’s at least possible)

Muskegon county Michigan

Anson county North Carolina
Pasquotank county North Carolina

Jasper county South Carolina

Jackson county Illinois

Marengo county Alabama

Marshall county Mississippi
Jasper county Mississippi
Copiah county mississippi

[Leroy McPherson fan]

A rural RGV county in Texas?

Ducal, Starr, and Maverick. Also, not quite RGV but Culberson.

[Jamison5]

I'll just list a bunch that I think are significantly more likely than not to flip, not in any particular order.

Marengo, AL
Desha, AR
Lee, AR
Stanislaus, CA
Baldwin, GA
Washington, GA
Jackson, IL
Winnebago, IL
Scott, IA
Iberville, LA
St. James, LA
Muskegon, MI
Carlton, MN
Lake, MN
Jasper, MS
Pike, MS
Marshall, MS
Rockland, NY
Anson, NC
Pasquotank, NC
Jasper, SC
Culberson, TX
Duval, TX
Portage, WI
Green, WI

[Hope For A New Era]

I've expressed doubt in Muskegon moving any further before, and I stand by my prediction of that, but I do think if there's any D->R county flip that isn't small rural RGV or depopulating southern black, it would be that.

Stanislaus, by the way, will not flip. It appears to be totally immune to both trends and the national environment.
Scott (Iowa) won't flip either, it's hit the "trend turning point" that has happened in some states like Missouri and Pennsylvania. They are "Trumpist burned-over districts" where there are literally no voters left for Republicans to gain while D trends in suburbs continue.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

I've expressed doubt in Muskegon moving any further before, and I stand by my prediction of that, but I do think if there's any D->R county flip that isn't small rural RGV or depopulating southern black, it would be that.

Stanislaus, by the way, will not flip. It appears to be totally immune to both trends and the national environment.
Scott (Iowa) won't flip either, it's hit the "trend turning point" that has happened in some states like Missouri and Pennsylvania. They are "Trumpist burned-over districts" where there are literally no voters left for Republicans to gain while D trends in suburbs continue.

I certainly don't think it's particularly likely, per se, but I also wouldn't be so confident about a Biden +0.8 county that has exhibited no leftward trajectory; it has only moved slightly rightward over the last few presidential cycles, actually.

[SnowLabrador]

Miami-Dade. Even now Biden seems to be collapsing with Hispanics.

[MATTROSE94]

Here are a few

Duval county Texas
Starr county Texas
Maverick county Texas
Culberson county Texas

Stanislaus California

Rockland New York

St. Francis county Arkansas
Lee county Arkansas
Desha county Arkansas

Miami Dade county Florida (longshot but it’s at least possible)

Muskegon county Michigan

Anson county North Carolina
Pasquotank county North Carolina

Jasper county South Carolina

Jackson county Illinois

Marengo county Alabama

Marshall county Mississippi
Jasper county Mississippi
Copiah county mississippi

Those counties seems about right, though I would definitely add Miami Dade County, Florida, and possibly Clark County, Nevada and Washoe County, Nevada to that list as well.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Jasper SC seems likely. Poor black voters are moving out of the black belt and going elsewhere.

[TodayJunior]

Miami-Dade. Even now Biden seems to be collapsing with Hispanics.

It’s definitely not flipping unless Rubio is the nominee, and even that’s a stretch. There’s a hard D floor here of 50-52%. The hypothetical D-collapse with hispanic voters alone wouldn’t flip this county R. It’s a combo of the GOP doing much better with AA, Haitians/DR/other Caribbean’s, white college-educated voters, Asians, etc.

[Tekken_Guy]

Atlantic and Cumberland counties in NJ are longshots, but still possible.

[Vosem]

Maybe Culberson, TX. Very small and only Biden +3 (compared to Clinton +23), so any further movement with Rio Grande Hispanics could flip the county, although I'm not sure whether that movement will occur.

Muskegon, MI was Clinton +2 and Biden +1; it went from voting left of the state to voting to the right of the state. Assuming that Biden can't expand his margin in MI by much in 2024 (if he's able to win it at all), Muskegon probably goes for Trump.

Other counties that Biden only won very narrowly, and by a smaller margin than Clinton:

• Stanislaus, CA
• Baldwin, GA
• Jasper, SC
• Pasquotank, NC
• Jackson, IL

I think Jackson IL had an unusual circumstance in 2020, with most students at SIU Carbondale not being present to vote; even though it's declining over time I think Jackson will trend left in 2024 and shouldn't vote Republican outside of a comfortable victory.

Jasper SC used to be a very black rural county, but recently it's had a flood of white retirees coming in; it's honestly kind of surprising it still voted D in 2020, it did so only by 107 votes, and it seems like "rural old Black Belt" and "retiree haven" are the two most certain categories to trend Republican. I think it might be the single likeliest Clinton-Biden county to vote R in 2024 in America. The other suggestions are good too, to be clear, but that one seems best: I think Jasper votes Republican in 2024 even in the event of an epochal Democratic landslide.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

A Republican winning the popular vote might have a shot at Hillsborough, FL, in addition to some of the ones mentioned above.  If a Republican can simultaneously keep Trump's 2020 gains with many Hispanics (along with Vietnamese-Americans) and turn back the clock a bit with suburban whites, Orange, CA might not be totally out of the question.  I'll also add Haywood, TN as a long-shot from my state, but I think 2028 or 2032 might be more likely, especially if Memphis exurbia eventually reaches the county.

Although, these would probably be more likely with a different Republican than with Trump himself.

[SN2903]

Muskegon County MI

[brucejoel99]

Miami-Dade. Even now Biden seems to be collapsing with Hispanics.

Spoken like (& recommended by) a poster who knows nothing about Dade beyond troll-ish fear-mongering.

[Biden his time]

A Republican winning the popular vote might have a shot at Hillsborough, FL, in addition to some of the ones mentioned above.

Disagreed

When Hillsborough breaks its inelasticity streak we can be pretty confident that it's gonna be turning left and turning left hard.

Only reason it didn't in 2020 was because of the Central Cuban neighborhood Democratic underperformance and do you all really think that'll happen again (at least to enough of an extent that it'll balance the suburbs?)

Hillsborough especially is dominated by D-trending suburbs.

Miami-Dade. Even now Biden seems to be collapsing with Hispanics.

What too many politico articles does to man