Norwegian General Election 13 September 2021

[Vosem]

To a first approximation, why is the blue bloc losing this election (and so decisively)? Is it something to do with COVID, something to do with scandals/dissent in the government, or just a "their time has come" sort of thing? It seems like a lot of European incumbents are fairly popular right now and the left is weak in many countries, so it's interesting to see this climate in Norway.

[Vosem]

Looks pretty consistent that Ap+Sp+SV are going to form a majority on their own, without needing backing from MDG or R (even if all three threshold-flirting parties end up making it).

If V makes it, it would be quite surprising considering polling and would be the first time the party makes the threshold three times consecutively since the 1960s (with 2013/2017 also being the first two consecutive times since 1965/1969).

What exactly caused the enormous Liberal crash in 1973? Prior to that they were one of the major parties, but since then they've normally struggled to hit the threshold (except in the New Tens) and were even locked out of the Storting entirely in most of the 1980s.

[Vosem]

This website (in Norwegian: https://www.vg.no/valgnatt/2021?utm_source=valg-widget-front) has a map which is being updated.

[Vosem]

Gains for smaller left-wing parties (from Ap) in Oslo are so strong that H is replacing Ap as the largest party in the capital (even though it's also losing support overall, and of course the red bloc is gaining on the blue bloc literally everywhere in the country).