In a depolarized, less partisan world that makes more sense, this would make the state a tossup on the Senate map... but this isn't even the year 2000 anymore.
Also, Maryland is, at the federal level, really Democratic, and remember Donald Trump is on that ballot with him.
Republicans held an open Senate seat in Maryland to single-digits in 2006, though admittedly the state has actually gotten much more Democratic since then.
Anyway, I think Hogan has absolutely zero chance against Trone, and probably only a sliver of a chance against Alsobrooks (like 1-2% odds) in the event of a giant Republican wave. I do think the campaign
type is an interesting one -- Republicans haven't actually tried the "run really popular state-level officeholder in a deep blue state" playbook since it burned them in 2012. Polarization is way up since then, but satisfaction with both major parties is way down, such that if Hogan can find a way to dissociate from Trump while still holding on to the base*, against the wrong opponent in the wrong year a chance exists.
(I agree with whoever said he wasn't guaranteed to win the primary.)
*This is much easier in the general than you'd think, but one of the lessons of 2022 was that it's very hard in a primary; if you even try a total nobody will come out of nowhere and beat you.
