UPDATE:
After saying 2024 or 2028 on November 10th, I'm now upping it to 2028 or 2032. I think the capitol insurrection and Trump's general conduct since the election (which continues to this day), as well as a likely recovered economy will tank the GOP (though only narrowly) in 2024.
This aged like milk. The insurrection/election denial was basically the 2nd biggest reason why Republicans lost in 2022.
Coming into the midterm elections of 2022, both houses of Congress were already established for control with the Democratic Party.
Beginning in January 2023, the U.S. House will be under control with the Republican Party.
That is not a loss by the 2022 Republican Party.
They're going to have a net loss in Senate and governorships, lost a ton of state legislatures, and have a razor-thin majority in the House.
This discussion is reminiscent of 2016, but with the parties reversed. In 2016, Republicans took a trifecta in a shock upset, but failed to note that the headline ballot was D+2; they acted like they had an enormous mandate and were immediately punished by the electorate.
In 2022, in a shock upset, Democrats “had a net gain in Senate and governorships, and gained a ton of state legislatures”, but failed to note that the headline ballot was R+3. If they act like they got an enormous mandate, they’ll be punished by the electorate in a similar way.
(Anyway, to answer the question that this thread is about, I’d say the odds of either 2024 or 2028 being a Republican presidential victory are something like 3 out of 4, considering history.)
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