2020 New York Redistricting

[Vosem]

So Dems gain 1 in AL, 1 in LA, 2 in NY (03 and 22). Rs gain 3 seats in NC. Georgia is redrawn but doesn't really make a difference. So it looks like redistricting this cycle is a wash.

Depends on what counts as a gain -- by notional 2022 result, Rs gained 4 seats in NC (the three obvious ones but also the new NC-1, which would've voted R in 2022 for the House but is a Clinton/Biden seat), and Democrats gained 1 seat each in AL/LA/NY (only the Syracuse seat is now notionally-D-in-2022; Santos '22 still wins the new NY-3). If 2022 was fought on 2024 lines, it would've been 223-212 Republican, so a singular extra seat.

Basically Democrats failed to cancel out the NC redistricting, although by successfully putting off a new OH map they mostly fought the 2023-2024 redistricting cycle to a draw (very tiny defeat).

[Vosem]

So Dems gain 1 in AL, 1 in LA, 2 in NY (03 and 22). Rs gain 3 seats in NC. Georgia is redrawn but doesn't really make a difference. So it looks like redistricting this cycle is a wash.

Depends on what counts as a gain -- by notional 2022 result, Rs gained 4 seats in NC (the three obvious ones but also the new NC-1, which would've voted R in 2022 for the House but is a Clinton/Biden seat), and Democrats gained 1 seat each in AL/LA/NY (only the Syracuse seat is now notionally-D-in-2022; Santos '22 still wins the new NY-3). If 2022 was fought on 2024 lines, it would've been 223-212 Republican, so a singular extra seat.

Basically Democrats failed to cancel out the NC redistricting, although by successfully putting off a new OH map they mostly fought the 2023-2024 redistricting cycle to a draw (very tiny defeat).

I expect Dems will ultimately flip back all the Biden seats in NY aside from maybe Molinaro’s. I feel people are really overrating Lawler for 2024 and even if he does well with the Orthodox he’s not going to replicate his 2022 success in Westchester with presidential turnout.

I’ve always called Anthony D’Esposito the Republican Max Rose, well Lawler is their Anthony Brindisi.

LaLota is in a Trump seat outright now, and after the Suozzi victory that leaves only 4 New York Republicans in Biden seats: Williams, Molinaro, Lawler, and D'Esposito. By likelihood of victory, I'd put Molinaro first (his seat was probably still Trump '16 and is very elastic), D'Esposito (very blue seat but he's a very good fit for it and this area is trending right), Lawler (I think doomed unless Generic R is within 10 points statewide), and then Williams (I think doomed unless Generic R is within 5 points statewide).

Honestly I think the GOP might be likelier to knock Ryan off than keep Williams.