Vosem
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Posts: 15,641
Political Matrix E: 8.13, S: -6.09
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« on: July 28, 2016, 07:52:59 PM » |
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He has never been under 4% in any national poll conducted since the Trump nomination that mentioned him, so I would say 4% seem pretty well determined to vote for him. (His high, reached in the CNN poll last week, was 13%). If you really think his support will melt away leaving only bare bones, 4% seems like a decent estimate for those bare bones. Pessimistically I voted for 4%, though I happen to think the distribution of possibilities for Johnson has a very long tail.
(Stein, by contrast, has managed to score 0% in some national polls that she was included in, though she has a not-bad high of 7%).
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