Has Trump essentially won the Republican nomination?

[Vosem]

He's improved his position a bit, but he's still basically losing.

[Vosem]

He's improved his position a bit, but he's still basically losing.

How so?

He's still under 50% of total first-ballot delegates, whether you count just pledged or include the unpledged that have also made an endorsement. He cannot exceed 50% on the first number tomorrow, and it's unlikely for him to exceed it on the second. Even if he does, he's on track to do poorly in most of the May primaries (except West Virginia), and have negative momentum going in to California, where he needs to do well.

If he can't get to 50%+1 on the first ballot -- and odds are he can't -- then the whole thing falls apart and he loses. It was always a longshot, tbh.

[Vosem]

He's better positioned now, but we still won't know until after Indiana and California.

Certainly Trump's path to 1237 seems to pbe a function of how many CDs he wins in IN and CA. I don't think it is a given he will pass 1237.  However, he has a very good chance of getting close enough to win, assuming the bulk of the PA unbound vote with the winner of PA.

The dicey bit, is that in places like PA, Cruz might do worse than Trump in the General. So to entice the PA delegates to give Trump the finger, many of them want to see the path to getting someone as the nominee who is neither of the two. Cruz is just toxic in the Northeast.

[Vosem]

It's really not a dead heat at all, that's the fascinating thing about it. He's won everywhere except the Great Plains.

He hasn't really won anywhere besides the New York City suburbs, portions of Appalachia, and the Mississippi River Valley. Everywhere else he goes, people vote against him.

[Vosem]

"Trump" and any form of the word "win" do not belong in the same sentence without a form of "not" in between. He is a loser. A high-energy loser, but still a loser with tiny hands.

What does that make the 16 other Republicans that ran this cycle?

_trump is a loser, but he's not the only loser in the world, or even in the Republican Party. That would be ridiculous.