Canadian by-elections, 2015

[Vosem]

Since SHSA was created in 1994, it has always been a single-digit Liberal victory over the PQ except in the large victories of 2003 and 2014. By Canadian standards, it seems to be a pretty inelastic place, and "single-digit Liberal victory over the PQ" is what you're supposed to expect here. A PQ victory (which I doubt, but is still possible) here would indicate that the PQ is definitely forming government in Quebec, and possibly a majority government.

[Vosem]

Those single digit QLP victories were I presume against a more or less unified sovereigntist vote under PQ. If QS+PQ wind up getting >50% as they are currently are, or even if they manage to combine for more than QLP, it would be significant.

The ADQ and CAQ took from both sovereigntists and federalists, so it can be difficult to say. (Like elsewhere in Quebec, both the PQ and QLP have been trending downhill here since the end of the 2-party era in Quebec). PQ+QS>QLP was the case in 2012, though never before and not in 2014 (when QLP>50% on its own). SHSA was 53-47 "Non" in 1995, so it's certainly winnable for a sovereigntist party, even if that has not been done.

[Vosem]

I'm no expert, but it seems pretty clear to me that the Campbell-era and post-Campbell BC Liberal Party is essentially a successor to the Socreds under a different name. Is the Socred legacy really still so unpopular in BC that "Socred" is used as a smear by the BC Libs' opponents?