Nevada: Long Gone?

[Vosem]

I'm not sure which direction it's trending; it moved fairly rapidly R in 2012, although demographics-wise (and it was doing this for most of the 2000s numbers-wise, too) it seems to be moving D. Right now, it's a leans-D state; Republicans don't need a blowout to win it, as a solid victory by a Western candidate would probably be sufficient. The state reelected a Republican Senator in 2012; it's obviously not gone.

As for Hispanics, while they are increasing as a percentage of the population it seems doubtful that Democrats will be able to duplicate their 2012 landslide among Hispanics. Republicans have generally done much better throughout the 2000s than they did in 2012 (Bush got 44% of them in 2004), and they are still pretty regularly getting into the high 30s in Western states at the statewide level as I understand it. Romney made zero effort to appeal to Hispanics whatsoever; that mistake won't be repeated. So while opebo is right in the long term (Republicans won't be winning Hispanics outright anytime soon, and they are increasing as a share of the population), in the short run he's not, since it seems clear that if the Republicans nominate a semi-competent candidate in 2016 they will 'bounce back' and give Republicans a greater percentage of the vote than they did in 2012. So, for 2016 if the candidate's not Santorum or something insane like that they should be fine.