Virginia 2005 Gubernatorial Election

[MHS2002]

Russ Potts, the state Senator for the Frederick and Clarke County areas, is my state Senator. I don't want to say I "hate" him, but I strongly, strongly dislike him. He doesn't represent the views of this area at all and has been nothing but a thorn in the side of the Republican party since he last got elected in 2003. I'm almost positive he was one of the Republicans that voted for the latest tax increase. Nothing would make me happier than to see Potts fall flat on his face, either in the gubernatorial race or the state Senate race.

A little back story...in the 2003 Republican Primary for our Senate seat (which essentially doubles as the general election in these neck of the woods), he was seriously challenged by a local businessman from the Right, but was able to squeak by based on incumbency. Methinks he would not get reelected for state Senate here now; hopefully he will get another primary challenge if he has to run.

[MHS2002]

Virginia GOP beginning to disown Potts

Potts Faces Wrath of Va. GOP
Leaders Move to Oust Senator Over Independent Bid

By Rosalind S. Helderman
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, March 9, 2005; Page B01

When Sen. H. Russell Potts Jr. announced last month that he would run for governor of Virginia as an "independent Republican," challenging the party's nominee for the job, he said he remained as much a part of the Republican family as his father before him.

This week, a Republican committee chaired decades ago by Potts's father formally disowned him.

In a unanimous vote Monday evening, the Winchester City Republican Committee declared that it no longer recognizes Potts as a member and called on him to resign his Senate seat.

Across the state, the Republican Party apparatus is working to formally rebuke the four-term senator for declaring he will bypass the party's June 14 primary and try to get his name on the Nov. 8 general election ballot as an independent. He would probably face Jerry W. Kilgore, the former state attorney general and leading Republican in the race, and Lt. Gov. Timothy M. Kaine, the probable Democratic nominee.

"You can't have it both ways. You can't be an 'independent Republican.' And he has to take responsibility for that," said Kate Obenshain Griffin, chairman of the state party and a member of the Winchester committee.

Potts dismissed the committee's actions and said he would not resign from the party or the Senate.

"They don't have the power to tell me whether I'm a Republican or not. Only God and myself have the power to do that," he said. "It's the party of my forefathers . . . . I will not yield to this radical, extreme, out-of-touch element in the Republican Party."

Resolutions by Republican committees statewide lay the groundwork for the General Assembly's one-day session next month, when legislators will gather to consider legislation vetoed or amended by Gov. Mark R. Warner (D).

Party leaders would like to see Senate Republicans use the occasion to remove Potts from his party's caucus and strip him of his committee assignments, including the chairmanship of the Senate's Education and Health Committee. From that perch, he has led a majority of the 15-member committee in blocking some conservative social legislation from reaching the Senate floor.

Meeting in City Hall, not far from Potts's downtown home, all 33 members of the Winchester committee who were present adopted a resolution on the "abandonment of the Republican Party by Senator Potts." Noting that committee bylaws require members to support the party's nominees for office, they expressed "disappointment" in Potts and said he has "shown continuous hostility toward the core principals" of the party.

"People worked very hard to elect him as a Republican," said Gary Chrisman, chairman of the committee. "To do this, everybody here is very saddened."

Potts believes the party has veered too far to the right and promised a populist appeal that draws votes from both Kaine and Kilgore. He has said he will lay out a plan to fix the state's transportation network and would consider tax increases to pay for it. He also favors allowing local governments to reinstate the full car tax.

Potts's senatorial district also includes Clarke and Frederick counties, as well as parts of Fauquier and Loudoun counties. Fauquier's Republican committee adopted a similar resolution at its meeting last weekend, and Loudoun members will consider action this month.

Potts's "Senate district is probably one of the most Republican districts in the state, " said Loudoun committee Chairman J. Randall Minchew. "People voted for Russ Potts not because he's Russ Potts, but because he had that 'R' after his name."

Under Senate rules, a lawmaker forfeits the right to a committee chairmanship should he "cease to be a member of the political party of which he was a member at the time of his election." The assembly's April 6 meeting could feature a parliamentary tussle over whether forfeiture should take place automatically or require a two-thirds majority vote. Senators may debate, too, whether Potts's action means he is no longer a party member.

Griffin said the resolutions from committees across the state should leave no doubt. "We're saying unequivocally that he is no longer a Republican," she said.

Meanwhile, Potts said he is working to gather the 10,000 signatures he needs to get on the ballot and appealing to longtime supporters, such as Winchester City Council President Charles T. Gaynor. Gaynor, a member of the Republican committee, said he could not attend Monday's meeting but would have voted against the resolution.

"I'm a moderate Republican, and there are a lot of us around here," Gaynor said. "Russ has abandoned the Republican Party, but I'm not so sure the Republican Party has not abandoned a lot of us."

Kilgore will face Warrenton Mayor George B. Fitch June 14.

[MHS2002]

It's good to see Potts is beginning to fall flat on his face. He deserves it for putting his own selfish desires over those of his party (that is, if he is still a Republican anymore).

[MHS2002]

Bumping this thread: latest fundraising numbers for VA gubernatorial candidates

Kaine Retains Fundraising Edge
2-Month Total of $2 Million Tops Kilgore's $1.5 Million

By Michael D. Shear
Washington Post Staff Writer
Saturday, June 4, 2005; Page B05

RICHMOND, June Democratic gubernatorial candidate Timothy M. Kaine has once again outraised his likely Republican opponent, Jerry W. Kilgore, in the competition to become the state's 70th governor, according to figures released Friday by the campaigns.

Kaine, the lieutenant governor, will report to the State Board of Elections on Monday that he collected about $2 million from April 1 to June 1, according to campaign spokeswoman Delacey Skinner. That puts the total Kaine has raised for his campaign at a little more than $10 million.

Kaine will report having about $5 million on hand.

Kilgore, who was trailing Kaine by about $800,000 at the end of the last reporting period, will report raising about $1.5 million during the latest period, according to campaign manager Ken Hutcheson. In total, Kilgore has raised about $8.7 million.

Kilgore will have about $3.2 million on hand.

The two men are well on their way to reaching a mark both campaigns said was likely when the race began: $15 million each. The election is more than five months away, on Nov. 8.

Four years ago, Mark R. Warner spent a little more than $20 million in his victory over former attorney general Mark L. Earley, according to the Virginia Public Access Project, which tracks campaign money. Earley spent about $11.5 million.

Kaine campaign officials said their fundraising is an indication of the broad support the Democrat enjoys. The most recent report includes a fundraiser last month in Tysons Corner that featured Warner and brought in $1 million in one night.

"We're pleased with it," Skinner said. "We hit our goals, and we're very pleased with the Warner event."

Kaine's top donor for the period was Sheila Johnson, a philanthropist and new owner of the Washington Mystics women's basketball team. Johnson, former wife of Black Entertainment Television founder Robert Johnson, gave Kaine $100,000 during the period. She has given a total of about $400,000, according to VPAP.

Kaine also received $50,000 from Janice Brandt, an AOL executive, and $25,000 from Warner. He received $25,000 each from several unions.

"It's not a single donor," Skinner said. "This is just individual contributions."

Kilgore officials said they are pleased with their efforts, despite falling short of Kaine's fundraising. They noted that half of Kaine's total for the period includes the money generated by the Warner event, which Kaine said at the time would be his campaign's biggest fundraiser.

"The Kaine camp rolled out their biggest gun in the month of May," Hutcheson said. "We still have the very high probability of a presidential event, which is going to even up the race financially and then some."

Hutcheson also said Kaine's overall total includes a $1.5 million contribution from the Democratic National Committee. "The only difference in the money chase is the $1.5 million that [DNC Chairman] Howard Dean gave him," Hutcheson said. Kaine officials point out that the $1.5 million was provided by a previous DNC chairman, Terrence R. McAuliffe, not Dean.

Kilgore's top donations included $25,000 from American International Group, an insurance company; $25,000 from Altria, parent company of Philip Morris, the cigarette maker; and $25,000 from Mark Kington, a former business partner of Warner's.

Both campaigns said they spent about $2 million in the last two months, mostly on television and radio ads, which began appearing in markets across the state.

Sen. H. Russell Potts Jr. (R-Winchester), who is running for governor as an independent, declined Friday to say how much he has raised. He indicated that he had spent most of his time during the past two months collecting signatures to be placed on the ballot in November. As of April 1, Potts had raised about $375,000.

Warrenton Mayor George B. Fitch, who is challenging Kilgore for the Republican nomination, had raised about $155,000 as of April 1. He could not be reached by phone Friday for later figures.
Primary day is June 14. Next update will be then.

[MHS2002]

A little update: Russ Potts has officially collected enough signatures and will be on the gubernatorial ballot in November.

[MHS2002]

Is Kilgore still refusing to debate?

There will be two Kilgore-Kaine debates IIRC. The big stink right now is that Kilgore does not want Potts involved in any debates. Of course, part of that may be because Potts called Kilgore "a horrible leader. He would be probably the worst governor in the history of Virginia."

Right now, no candidates are really looking good. I'd consider voting for Potts, if he didn't suck, and I didn't hate him, and he wasn't a turncoat, and...(you get the general idea).

[MHS2002]

One of the debates, sponsored by the Virginia Bar Association, will be Saturday, July 16, between Kilgore and Kaine. Another debate will take place at a Northern Virginia chamber of commerce group in September, and a third debate is in the works.

[MHS2002]

So far no candidate in the VA gubernatorial race is very inspiring, to be honest. Kilgore's campaign hasn't really taken off, and Kaine is just sort of, bleh. One thing I have begun to notice is that Potts, instead of burning his bridges with the Republican party, has just decided to outright napalm them. The way he's been acting, he could very well take more votes away from Kaine than Kilgore.

Oh, and the first gubernatorial debate is this week. I don't know if it will be on TV or radio yet, but if it is I'll try and catch a bit of it.

[MHS2002]

If Potts continues to campaign the way he is now (coming out with some harsh words against Kilgore, pro-gay adoptions, pro-choice, etc.), he will end up taking more votes away from Kaine. Also, I wouldn't expect Potts to get much support from people who normally vote Republican at this point, because I can't think of one good thing he's had to say about the VA Republican party since last year.

On a related note, It's really hard for me to tell exactly how much recognition Potts has in other parts of the state. Since I'm in his district, he makes all the headlines in the local papers, but I'm not sure how well known he is throughout the rest of Virginia. Can any of the other VA people chime in?

[MHS2002]

New Rassmussen Poll:

Kilgore 47, Kaine 41, Other 4

Link

[MHS2002]

Here's another fundraising update...with just over 400 grand in cash, I don't think Potts will get his message out anywhere at this rate.

Also, the Kilgore-Kaine debate tomorrow will not be televised and will be held in West Virginia. No, I don't get it either.

Link to Article
Kilgore Whittles Away at Kaine's Fundraising Lead

By Chris L. Jenkins
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, July 14, 2005; Page B05

RICHMOND, July 13 -- Republican gubernatorial candidate Jerry W. Kilgore raised $2.1 million last month, more than twice the amount raised by his opponent Timothy M. Kaine, and cut into the Democrat's financial lead.

Kilgore's campaign said the former attorney general's haul last month -- nudged in part by early returns from a Fairfax County fundraiser next week that will be attended by President Bush -- means that the candidate's effort is gaining energy. Kilgore has raised $10.8 million.
   

"We feel the campaign has been running strongly for a long time now," said Tim Murtaugh, Kilgore's press secretary. "The candidate . . . continues to build momentum."

Kaine, the lieutenant governor, raised a little more than $1 million, the campaign reported, bringing his total to nearly $11.1 million. At the beginning of the reporting period, Kaine led Kilgore by about $1.3 million.

Delacey Skinner, Kaine's press secretary, said the campaign is not worried about the fundraising totals from last month. "The way we measure our success is, 'Do you have enough money to do what you set out to do in your budget?' " she said. "We've kept pace with, and at times exceeded, our goals. That's what you need to do."

Skinner said Kilgore's contested primary last month with Warrenton Mayor George B. Fitch, which Kilgore won easily, might have given him a boost in attention that probably led to higher contributions. Kaine did not have a primary challenger. Skinner called the Bush event a one-time boost to the Republican's coffers.

"We expected them to bring in quite a bit of money from this Bush fundraiser," she said. Kaine raised more than $1 million in May at an event headlined by Gov. Mark R. Warner (D).

Although Kilgore bested Kaine last month, the Republican trails his opponent in cash on hand. Kaine will report about $5 million in cash, while Kilgore has $4.6 million on hand.

Mike McCall, the press secretary for state Sen. H. Russell Potts Jr. (R-Winchester), the race's independent candidate, said the campaign will release fundraising tallies Friday, when they are due. As of June 1, Potts reported raising about $425,000.

The race between the two major-party candidates has attracted national attention. Virginia and New Jersey are the only states with gubernatorial elections this year, and both parties have made the commonwealth a priority.

So far, the two candidates have made full use of their national bases. Kaine received a pledge of $5 million from national Democrats several months ago. Ken Mehlman, the National Republican Committee chairman, has campaigned twice for Kilgore in the past six weeks.

The two candidates are on their way to record-breaking fundraising. Kilgore has raised almost as much as the 2001 GOP gubernatorial candidate, Mark L. Earley, who finished with $11 million. Kaine, with $5 million on hand, has more money than Warner did at this point in 2001.

As the Virginia race slogs through the summer months -- a traditionally dry spell for fundraising -- Kilgore and Kaine hope to use national political luminaries to keep the money coming at energetic levels. Bush will raise money for Kilgore next week, and Kaine has scheduled an event for July 20 at the Clarendon Ballroom in Arlington that will feature U.S. Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), who is considered one of the national party's rising stars and often attracts large audiences.

[MHS2002]

Also, the Kilgore-Kaine debate tomorrow

Hopefully Kaine can pick up some steam from the debates.

Might not matter if no one can see the debate.

[MHS2002]

Might not matter if no one can see the debate.

Who was the genius who decided to hold the debates in WV?

Don't know...Also, I read in a newspaper article that the second debate between Kilgore and Kaine will not be televised either.

[MHS2002]

When's the debate?

First one is today. Not sure what time.

[MHS2002]

I just dont get it.  Warner has a 67% approval rating, but Kaine cant even beat a joke like Kilgore.

Kaine isn't exactly the best candidate ever either.

[MHS2002]

Kaine isn't exactly the best candidate ever either.

He must be horrible.  Warner paved the way for Kaine to ride straight into the Governors mansion, but it seems as if he has blown it.

As a whole, the connection to Mark Warner is a positive for Kaine, but if he can't become a more viable candidate on his own merits, people may see him as nothing more than a Warner clone incapable of any independent though. In short, Kaine should play up his ties to Warner, while also becoming his own man in the process.

Also, Kilgore has begun to play up his ties to Warner, saying recently that he and Gov. Warner worked together on a number of issues while both were in office. Kinda reminds me of the Daschle ads that showed him shoulder-to-shoulder with Bush, and we all know how that turned out for the former Minority Leader.

[MHS2002]

Looks like everybody wants to be like Mark. 

When you have the approval ratings Warner has, absolutely.

[MHS2002]

When you have the approval ratings Warner has, absolutely.

Two questions...

Who do you plan on voting for... Kaine or Kilgore (I know your not a Potts fan)?

Who would you vote for if Warner was permitted to run for re-election?

1. Probably Kilgore: I was optimistic about him in the beginning, but since then he hasn't done much to really solidify my vote for him. I'd say about an 75% chance I vote for Kilgore, 25% Kaine, which is to say that Kaine will need to do something spectacular (or Kilgore will need to bomb) for me to change my vote, but not out of the realm of possibility.

2. I would be very tempted to vote Warner. The only time I don't like him is when I see the VA taxes come out of my paycheck, but you have to give him credit for running the state fairly well. Probably 55-60% Warner, 40-45% Kilgore.

[MHS2002]

New Debate Info:

Kilgore has agreed to a three way debate including Kaine and Potts, which will take place sometime in Richmond in October and will be televised. For Potts, the caveat is that he must be polling at least 15% to be included in the debate.

Wash. Post Article
RICHMOND, Aug. 9 -- Republican gubernatorial nominee Jerry W. Kilgore said Tuesday that he has agreed to a debate that would include state Sen. H. Russell Potts Jr., but only if the independent candidate reaches 15 percent in two statewide polls between now and October.

Kilgore's campaign said the debate would be Oct. 9 in Richmond, though that date has not officially been agreed to by Lt. Gov. Timothy M. Kaine's campaign, which would like to hold the debate two weeks later.

The debate is the only one scheduled to be televised statewide. It was organized and would be moderated by Larry J. Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. Sabato said he did everything he could to ensure that a debate involving all three candidates on the ballot could be held under certain conditions.

"If I were the debate dictator, I'd have a three-way debate instantly," said Sabato, who based the 15 percent threshold for an independent candidate on the standard used by presidential debates for similar hopefuls. He added: "This was the best we could do."

The debate about debates -- how many to have and who should participate -- has been a contentious one in the gubernatorial campaign. Kaine, the Democratic candidate, has called for more debates. One debate has been held; another, sponsored by the Fairfax County Chamber of Commerce, is scheduled for Sept. 13.

Potts has relentlessly criticized Kilgore for refusing to debate him, and his campaign denounced the conditions for the new debate as unfair.

"It's a joke," said Tom D'Amore, Potts's campaign director. "It's a transparent run-and-hide strategy by Mr. Kilgore."

D'Amore said the fact that his candidate is on the ballot -- with more than 24,000 signatures from registered voters in Virginia -- should be enough to prove that he is a legitimate contender.

A recent survey of 625 likely voters by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research showed Potts receiving 9 percent of the vote; Kaine got 38 percent and Kilgore 37 percent. The poll also found that that 58 percent of respondents wanted to see Potts included in the debate.

Kilgore has maintained that he would not participate in a debate that includes Potts, a Republican state senator from Winchester, because he does not believe Potts has a chance of winning the election. Kaine has agreed to debate Potts, who is running as an independent, and the two have a confirmed appearance scheduled for Sept. 30.

Tim Murtaugh, press secretary for the Kilgore campaign, said that the decision to debate Potts under certain conditions was consistent with Kilgore's belief that such forums should be limited to those candidates who have made a significant showing among the state's likely voters.

"We have said all along that we would only debate candidates who have a chance of winning," Murtaugh said. "If the debate organizers set that bar at 15 percent, then we're willing to accept that."

Kaine's campaign said that Kilgore was responding to the will of the people in agreeing to the third debate. "It's clear that voters want to see a debate with all the candidates," said Mo Elleithee, Kaine's director of communications. "It's good to see Mr. Kilgore come around."

Potts could be a threat to both major-party candidates. The Mason Dixon poll found that much of his support comes from Republicans, though his positions on gay rights and abortion rights might attract some Democratic voters as he becomes better known.

"His campaign has hurt both of them, although Potts clearly has centered his criticisms on Kilgore," Sabato said. "But Kaine has to be worried about Potts's popularity in Northern Virginia and some of his stances that might be popular there."

[MHS2002]

http://www.roanoke.com//politics%5C30379.html

Sounds like Kaine will do back-to-back debates with Kilgore and then Potts on the same day.

Also, this page:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Congressional/VA_Gov_05.html

is a good place to look for the latest headlines on the race. The authors of the site have a Republican bias, but the page above is a good source nonetheless.

[MHS2002]

Kilgore lashed out at illegal immigrants yesterday, opposing a bid to create a gathering area for day laborers in Herndon, which has had a huge influx of immigrants and id suffering from gang violence.  He had earlier proposed to police that when illegals commit a crime, they should be deported.  I won't be voting for Kilgore, but I like what he did here.

Illegal immigrantion is becoming an increasingly important factor in the Viriginia election this year.

I posted an article on the Gubernatorial elections thread about an illegal immigrant attacking a 15 year old girl.

Made big news in Virginia.

Barring some major turnaround, it looks like Kilgore gets elected.

You are right about illegal immigration being a big factor this year Carl. By the end of the campaign, may very well be the single largest factor.

[MHS2002]

Latest poll, Kilgore leads 48-43-3.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=0d9694a4-37cd-4431-93e1-48ec1ae41681

Note this poll actually oversampled Democrats, but Kilgore leads among "moderates" (35-34) and is only down 2 amongst those that "never' attend church (!!). ouch. [though that is Potts' strength, if you can all 5% a strength] Kilgore also leads in all age groups except 50-64.

If those numbers are close to correct, Kilgore will easily win. Both candidates are holding their bases but there are more Republicans.

This election is a wash -it will depend ultimately on two factors, the balance of which in the mind of Virginia voters will affect who becomes the next governor of Virginia:

1. The tax increases advocated by Gov. Mark Warner and passed by the Republican-dominated legislature (especially with the help of the state Senate) on sales and income to increase funding for education, health care, and public safety (among other popular programs), which have proved surprisingly popular (or at least acceptable) to a majority of Virginians, and which have not adversely affected Warner's approval ratings.

-or-

2. The skyrocketing property tax assessment rates especially in Northern Virginia, combined with high gas prices (therefore making any chance of a gas tax increase to fund transportation projects next to impossible), both of which Kilgore could use to his advantage and reawaken the traditonally strong anti-tax sentiment that had long propelled his party to eventually capture the both houses of the General Assembly, and subsequently dominate Virginia beginning in the late 1990s.
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Either way, taxes and high gas prices will be the singularly most important factors that will determine who will become the next governor of Virginia.  Illegal immigration -and by extension, gang violence among younger Latinos- while an important issue in the outlying suburbs of Northern Virginia, will not be that big of an issue throughout the rest of the state compared to the issues I have already enumerated.

In addition to the issues you talk about Frodo, transportation may become a factor in the Northern Virginia area. I'm a little surprised there hasn't been more coverage on this issue actually.

[MHS2002]

Alright, I just saw the debate.

1. Who exactly is running for the Democrats? Tim Kaine or Mark Warner? I'm pretty sure Warner's name was mentioned around 20 times.

2. Neither candidate was spectacular. Kilgore had more trouble articulating his points but Tim Kaine didn't exactly blow the competition away. Probably a slight edge to Kaine as he is a better debater but not a convincing victory.

3. In the big scheme of things, the campaign ad pledge means almost nothing. If the reason you decide to vote for someone is because they've run a positive campaign, then you've got issues.

4. Kaine was hurt by his NRA "F" grade. Don't underestimate the single-issue voters in the Southwest.

5. Kilgore hammered away on numerous occasions regarding Kaine's opposition to the death penalty. I'm not sure what feelings are regarding the death penalty throughout the state, but Kilgore must know something I don't to have hammered away on it so hard.

Some less serious points:

1. Kaine has a weird thing going on with his eyebrows. One is much higher than the other.

2. Sabato is pretty overrated. I don't know why he is seen as some sort of god of Virginia politics.

[MHS2002]

The reasoning behind NARAL not endorsing Kaine was that at the time of the endorsement, Potts was on a big pro-abortion kick and made himself out to be the abortion candidate in the race. NARAL didn't endorse Potts because they felt his pro-abortion views would be best served in the state senate.

[MHS2002]

They are elected separately.