I predict the bright and charismatic incumbent Jack Kennedy would be popular what with his corporate tax cuts, a strong economy and a relatively peaceful international stage. The civil rights bill would prompt an exodus of southern Democrats to an indy candidate. Rockefeller wouldn't be able to unite the Goldwater Republicans and would be too much "northern elitist" for the disenfranchised southerners.
Kennedy 335
Rockefeller 168
Southern Populist/Racist/Secessionist Dude 35
I agree with this map. I suppose NY and CT can go either way. I know Rocky is from NY, but JFK won it by 5% in 1960 (a very narrow election) and I think as an incumbent he might be able to win NY even against a native son.