Pennsylvania, Texas, Nevada, ME-AL, New Hampshire, and Arizona. Retirees keep AZ and TX competitive for the GOP, the metros of PA and surrounding suburbs keep PA competitive for the Dems, NC and GA become blue (atlas red) states while WI and MI become red (atlas blue) states.
There are contradictory trends in both MI and WI that make it difficult for me to see them become straight up Republican. If the suburban trends continue, the Milwaukee metro area is a ticking time bomb against Republicans. Same thing applies in Grand Rapids/Western Michigan. What the Republicans need in both states is for the mid size cities to go hard Republican and while there have been some swings that direction, we haven't seen the massive swings that they'd need.
