NYTimes/Siena - Biden+9 in MN, +3 in NH, +4 in NV, +5 in WI

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1304767299149352960

Here’s the map:

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1304769793317376006?s=21

[Gass3268]

I was about to ask what exactly they mean by Milwaukee Suburbs. That seems very weak for a Republican and some serious erosion in support in the WOW counties, although I don't necessarily think the erosion is even (it seems like Washington County is the most stubbornly Republican of the three). It would certainly mean Waukesha is swinging against Trump, and I'm assuming Biden over 40%? If anything, it likes Biden is underpeforming in Dane County.


The NV numbers don't really concern me. The state is notoriously hard to poll and Democrats seem to always overperform their polling. I'm still waiting to hear from Jon Ralston, although I imagine he won't have much to say until early voting really ramps up.

Thats a 4 point swing in Dane County for a Biden from 2016.

[Gass3268]

Lots of folks are worried about that the Reid machine won't be able to work this year. Luckily the state implemented VMB and are allowing for ballot collection (aka the Culinary Union can go door to door and pick up ballots from their members). Not worried in the slightest.