PA-Monmouth: Biden+13%

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1283079642119839746?s=20

Based on the fact that they pose the question of whether "there is a hidden Trump vote" in PA, I am going to assume he is doing better than most polls suggest as of now. Biden +3 is my prediction.

I could also see them saying: Is there a secret Trump vote in the Keystone State? No.

[Gass3268]

REPS: Trump 84-12
INDIES: Biden 54-33
DEMS: Biden 93-1

MALES: Trump 47-45
FEMALES: Biden 60-34

18-49: Biden 60-29
50-64: Trump 56-43
65+: Biden 52-42

WHITES: Biden 48-46
NON-WHITES: Biden 76-16

WHITE NO DEGREE: 55-39 Trump
WHITE DEGREE: 61-34 Biden

[Gass3268]

Clinton +10 counties:
Biden 68
Trump 26

Swing counties (margin is less than 10 points):
Biden 54
Trump 35

Trump +10 counties:
Trump 55
Biden 40


The Trump +10 counties number is the most interesting for me. The most Clinton-leaning Trump county was Beaver county, and they voted for Trump by 19 points. If the average is only Trump +15, then we could be seeing some crazy swings.

Beaver voted for both Casey and Wolf as well. Cumberland, Lancaster, and Luzerne are other counties that could be interesting when results come in. Trump should win all four, but the swings could be very interesting.

[Gass3268]

A majority of respondents think there are a lot of shy Trump voters. I would tend to agree.

There has never been a "shy" Trump vote, not even in 2016. In 2016 a number number of folks said they were undecided and they broke for Trump because they hated him more than Clinton. It's not that difficult.