PA-Monmouth: Biden+13%
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  PA-Monmouth: Biden+13%
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Author Topic: PA-Monmouth: Biden+13%  (Read 3846 times)
pppolitics
Junior Chimp
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« on: July 15, 2020, 10:00:41 AM »



Biden: 53%
Trump: 40%
Other: 3%
Undecided: 4%
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: July 15, 2020, 10:02:21 AM »

Among LV, the lead is slightly smaller - but still pretty good for Biden:

With normal turnout, ca. 8-9% Biden.


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Gass3268
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« Reply #2 on: July 15, 2020, 10:02:41 AM »


Based on the fact that they pose the question of whether "there is a hidden Trump vote" in PA, I am going to assume he is doing better than most polls suggest as of now. Biden +3 is my prediction.

I could also see them saying: Is there a secret Trump vote in the Keystone State? No.
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Hindsight was 2020
Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #3 on: July 15, 2020, 10:03:14 AM »

Glorious 🤩
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SaneDemocrat
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« Reply #4 on: July 15, 2020, 10:04:38 AM »

Great probably Biden+9 if election were today
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #5 on: July 15, 2020, 10:05:12 AM »

Pick a freaking turnout model instead of giving 3 different results.
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Mr.Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: July 15, 2020, 10:05:51 AM »

Rs really thought that this was gonna stay red again, but it's not 13, its Biden +5
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7 on: July 15, 2020, 10:06:49 AM »

Pick a freaking turnout model instead of giving 3 different results.

The primary engagement has shown that "LV model, high turnout" is the more likely version.
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WD
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« Reply #8 on: July 15, 2020, 10:06:58 AM »

Stop, I can only get so erect.
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Person Man
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« Reply #9 on: July 15, 2020, 10:09:23 AM »

Biden’s from Scranton. If he can’t win there, PA is now a Republican state.
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #10 on: July 15, 2020, 10:09:36 AM »

Pick a freaking turnout model instead of giving 3 different results.

I mean this is kind of similar to how the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes like 7 unemployment rates, so I don't really mind
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #11 on: July 15, 2020, 10:09:54 AM »

Yeah, pretty sure we can erase the "lower turnuout model" from existence, but I'm glad they did this.

Wow, lines up with the NYT/Siena poll perfectly with the likely voter model (Biden +10)

AND this has a Trump +5 sample, too.

Though the only thing that is odd is the House vote. Even if the safe seats are more safer this time, D+4 still seems low.

A bunch of the internal house polls seemed to show Biden running very closely to Casey's 2018 result (+15 statewide)... at this rate it would not be surprising to see Biden run a similar map to Casey.
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #12 on: July 15, 2020, 10:10:51 AM »

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #13 on: July 15, 2020, 10:13:11 AM »

Pick a freaking turnout model instead of giving 3 different results.

Turnout is everything in the last five Presidential elections. Turnout is the least predictable of aspects of an election. It is also decisive. 
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Skye
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« Reply #14 on: July 15, 2020, 10:16:52 AM »

"Swing" Counties:

Biden 53
Trump 36

Quote
Swing (26% of vote) – counties where the winning margin for either candidate was less than 10 points, with a cumulative vote of 48.6% Clinton and 47.4% Trump (Berks, Bucks, Centre, Chester, Dauphin, Erie, Lackawanna, Lehigh, Monroe, Northampton).
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Gass3268
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« Reply #15 on: July 15, 2020, 10:22:04 AM »

REPS: Trump 84-12
INDIES: Biden 54-33
DEMS: Biden 93-1

MALES: Trump 47-45
FEMALES: Biden 60-34

18-49: Biden 60-29
50-64: Trump 56-43
65+: Biden 52-42

WHITES: Biden 48-46
NON-WHITES: Biden 76-16

WHITE NO DEGREE: 55-39 Trump
WHITE DEGREE: 61-34 Biden
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #16 on: July 15, 2020, 10:23:47 AM »

"Swing" Counties:

Biden 53
Trump 36

Quote
Swing (26% of vote) – counties where the winning margin for either candidate was less than 10 points, with a cumulative vote of 48.6% Clinton and 47.4% Trump (Berks, Bucks, Centre, Chester, Dauphin, Erie, Lackawanna, Lehigh, Monroe, Northampton).

This all lines up with everything we've seen since 2017. And if this continues to be the case, there's no way Trump can win PA with that big of a blowout in the suburbs / swing counties.
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Figueira
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« Reply #17 on: July 15, 2020, 10:26:39 AM »

Pretty hard to imagine him winning PA this much and not getting to 270.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #18 on: July 15, 2020, 10:28:17 AM »

July 9-13, 2020
MoE: 4.9%
401 registered/likely voters

RV model:
Biden 53%
Trump 40%
Other 3%
Undecided 4%

High turnout LV model:
Biden 52%
Trump 42%
Other 3%
Undecided 3%

Low turnout LV model:
Biden 51%
Trump 44%
Other 2%
Undecided 3%

I've no problem with different models, but I wish they'd put out figures for which they think is more likely rather than hedging their bets.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #19 on: July 15, 2020, 10:29:49 AM »
« Edited: July 15, 2020, 10:37:11 AM by Make PA Blue Again! »

According to RCP, Biden now leads Trump 49.3% - 41.5% (+7.8 )

At this time in 2016, Clinton lead Trump 39.3% - 38.3% (+1)
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Zaybay
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« Reply #20 on: July 15, 2020, 10:31:54 AM »

Clinton +10 counties:
Biden 68
Trump 26

Swing counties (margin is less than 10 points):
Biden 54
Trump 35

Trump +10 counties:
Trump 55
Biden 40


The Trump +10 counties number is the most interesting for me. The most Clinton-leaning Trump county was Beaver county, and they voted for Trump by 19 points. If the average is only Trump +15, then we could be seeing some crazy swings.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #21 on: July 15, 2020, 10:32:38 AM »

"Many anticipate a secret Trump vote" really means "People who didn't pay close attention in 2016 don't realize that that race swung extremely hard in the last 10 days due to the Comey letter"
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #22 on: July 15, 2020, 10:33:48 AM »

"Many anticipate a secret Trump vote" really means "People who didn't pay close attention in 2016 don't realize that that race swung extremely hard in the last 10 days due to the Comey letter"

This. I don't get what people don't understand about 2016. All you had to do was look at the poll averages and see there was 10%+ undecided in numerous states. And then we found out that those undecided voters went for Trump instead of Clinton. That's it. Not hard to comprehend.
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Mr.Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #23 on: July 15, 2020, 10:34:22 AM »

Sorry, Biden is not winning PA by 13 pts, even Obama didnt carry the state by that much. Even Wolf didnt beat Corbett by 13, it was 9. These polls exaggerate,  Biden wins PA+5
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Gass3268
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« Reply #24 on: July 15, 2020, 10:39:24 AM »

Clinton +10 counties:
Biden 68
Trump 26

Swing counties (margin is less than 10 points):
Biden 54
Trump 35

Trump +10 counties:
Trump 55
Biden 40


The Trump +10 counties number is the most interesting for me. The most Clinton-leaning Trump county was Beaver county, and they voted for Trump by 19 points. If the average is only Trump +15, then we could be seeing some crazy swings.

Beaver voted for both Casey and Wolf as well. Cumberland, Lancaster, and Luzerne are other counties that could be interesting when results come in. Trump should win all four, but the swings could be very interesting.
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