Illinois Redistricting Megathread

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/FrankCalabrese/status/1354523379836071936
Due to the Census Data Delay to July 31st
This would mean its basically 50/50 on who controls IL redistricting as it goes to a coint oss

Nothing says they have to use 2020 data.

[Gass3268]

"Nothing says they have to use 2020 data."

Except the US Constitution as interpreted.

Then what data can they use if they don't have the 2020 data ready? They have to meet the deadline. Their game plan should be to use 2010 data to get around this pesky state constitutional deadline. They know they'll get sued, but they can at least drag it out past the release of the 2020 data, when then they can agree to update the maps with the new data.

[Gass3268]

"Nothing says they have to use 2020 data."

Except the US Constitution as interpreted.

Then what data can they use if they don't have the 2020 data ready? They have to meet the deadline. Their game plan should be to use 2010 data to get around this pesky state constitutional deadline. They know they'll get sued, but they can at least drag it out past the release of the 2020 data, when then they can agree to update the maps with the new data.

Well that is a plan, unless the courts take over drawing the lines, and freeze them out.

Illinois state courts wouldn't do that and the Federal courts are now very deferential to the states when it comes to drawing maps.

[Gass3268]

Good news! The Illinois State Legislature has solved the Census problem by using alternative data.

The census delay is causing havoc for several states, with some shifting map deadlines or election dates, or even suing the Census Bureau in an effort to get data earlier. But the Illinois Constitution’s deadline could not be changed in time to affect the mapmaking process this year.

The state constitution does not really hamper legislators from moving forward despite the census delays, however, because it does not require the use of federal census data in drawing maps, stating only that redistricting occur “following each federal decennial census year.”

That leaves an opening for Democrats to use other sources of population data, including estimates from the federal census’ American Community Survey or private vendor data, to draw map lines.

“It’s pretty clear that you can use estimates and I think if you were to look at case law from other states, you can see that,” said state Rep. Jay Hoffman, a member of both Democratic House Speaker Emanuel “Chris” Welch’s leadership team and the House remap panel.

“You have to lay the groundwork that the estimates are accurate and I would venture to guess that the technology that exists today makes it much more sophisticated and accurate whether using the actual census tract or estimates in maps in the past that have been found constitutional,” said Hoffman, of downstate Swansea.

Hoffman said Democrats have yet to decide what data sources they’ll use for moving forward.

Source

[Gass3268]

No shocker here

https://twitter.com/GregHinz/status/1387124391461457922?s=20

[Gass3268]

Twitter thinks this is just Dave Wasserman’s map that he came up with a few weeks ago.

[Gass3268]

I like this one

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1394350840345997320?s=20

[Gass3268]

Why don't dems do what Republicans do with Austin in TX?  just have a ton of districts that stretch out from Chicago, which are 55-45 Dem?

VRA and incumbents

[Gass3268]

The GOP won the state-legislative coinflip after 1990 and, dutifully, drew a map favorable to the GOP. The Democrats appealed the the Supreme Court who ordered a number of districts redrawn. Some of those districts were struck down as "non-compact."  A significant number of the state's current legislative seats are less compact that the ones struck down in the 90's. If the GOP gains control of the IL Supreme Court they need only follow precedent to strike them down.

Thankfully the Democrats could redraw the State Supreme Court districts before the 2022 election.

[Gass3268]

Sounds like the legislative maps will be dropping within the hour.

[Gass3268]

STATE HOUSE MAP!!!

[Gass3268]

Senate Map!

[Gass3268]

Illinois will be redistricting their Supreme Court districts:

https://twitter.com/joelebert29/status/1397261473181835272?s=20

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1399859335329636356

Beautiful!

The people demand a 14-3!

This Illinois resident demands 14-3!

[Gass3268]

I can't find the tweet now, but Illinois has a 8/31 deadline for Congressional redistricting, so we should be getting a map here soon.

[Gass3268]

I can't find the tweet now, but Illinois has a 8/31 deadline for Congressional redistricting, so we should be getting a map here soon.

Is it this Tweet? I can't find any other info about an 8/31 deadline.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1427393200243855362

That's it

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/shiakapos/status/1428755834650169346?s=21

[Gass3268]

All I'll say right now is that Champaign and Urbana under the census numbers are now way too large for just a single state house district for the two of them. If the state legislature doesn't separate the two between 103 and 104 during the special session on Tuesday then they are throwing away a Safe Democratic district in favor of a swingy one.

They didn't do it.

Updates here:

https://twitter.com/MikeMiletichTV/status/1432403605726900228?s=20

[Gass3268]

Happy redistrict-mas!

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/bruneelections/status/1449046622659399688?s=21

[Gass3268]

Newman got a pretty crappy district. Wonder if they want Lipinski to come back?

[Gass3268]

Yeah, the more you look that this map the more dummymander potential it has.

[Gass3268]

Illinois updated their map. Looks like they might have created another Latino district.

https://twitter.com/MikeMiletichTV/status/1452021179565420544?s=20

[Gass3268]

Newman was double bunked with Casten.