538 Democratic primary model is up

[Gass3268]

It also has Biden winning every contest except New Hampshire and Vermont.

[Gass3268]

I have to imagine the model expected a stronger result for Sanders in NH.

[Gass3268]

Looks like Tennessee is currently a tie.

[Gass3268]

"No one" continues to gain at the expense of Sanders, while Biden continues to inch higher.

No majority 53
Sanders 28
Biden 17
Bloomberg 2

Their model, as in the past, weighs way too much on polling. Two good polls for Biden? A large change in the national picture. Their post-Iowa forecast was way to friendly to Sanders and Buttigieg so we can expect further large swings. If Sanders does "better than expected" on Super Tuesday, then we'll see a gigantic swing towards Sanders.

What other information are they supposed to use besides polls?

Demographics

[Gass3268]

So, they unfroze the model:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1235954698596872192?s=20