LA 2019 Gov Race: Gov John Bel Edwards wins a 2nd term

[Gass3268]

Lol, someone is desperate:

https://twitter.com/RepAbraham/status/1181646965773230080?s=20

[Gass3268]

I hear it’s raining in NoNOLA, JBE is canceled.

[Gass3268]

Runoff: Lean D ---> Likely R

Are you high?

[Gass3268]

JBE's internal has him up by 16, they claim they nailed their jungle percentage:

https://twitter.com/ZacMcCrary/status/1183761810022948867?s=20

ALG's poll shows 12% of Abraham's voters said they will vote for Edwards in the runoff with 15% of them undecided.

ALG's poll also shows Edwards' with a 60% positive job rating, but that would also be an indication some voters who approve of Edwards' job voted for one of the Republicans in the primary anyway.

Rispone, meanwhile, has a 32% favorable rating and a 38% unfavorable rating in the poll.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1184578806155284482?s=20

[Gass3268]

Hood's crossover with rural whites is encouraging to JBE. But if black turnout is as bad as in MS, he's gone.

Early vote suggests that that black turnout is better than it was in the primary.

[Gass3268]

I also saw John Couvillon say that typically there is a surge in black voters and to a lesser extent Democrats towards the end of the early vote period.

[Gass3268]

Miles has officially rated the race as Leans D for Sabato's Crystal Ball:

http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/in-close-runoff-democrats-try-to-finish-strong-in-louisiana/

For those who don't know, he used to be a member of this forum.

Giving him a clear edge in the rating seems a bit confident IMO, but he does acknowledge the race is going to be very close.

I believe that Crystal Ball has a policy of no Toss Ups for their last set of ratings, so their choice would be either Lean D or Lean R.