2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Gass3268]

PA-16 (Susquehanna):

Ron DiNicola (D) 51%
Mike Kelly (R) 47%

Source

The sample +4 Republican by registration (+5 Republican ID).

[Gass3268]

NBC/Marist Poll of Indiana Coming

[Gass3268]

Cartwright up 17 in PA-08:

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1057738146979504129

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/1057659147372716034

A bit of a shock poll.

Are there any outside groups spending money here?

[Gass3268]

Morning Consult/Politico, Oct. 25-30, 2543 RV

D: 46 (+1)
R: 38 (-1)

FINALLY a quality GCB poll.

I’m not sure I’d put MC on the “quality” level.

[Gass3268]

PA GCB: D+15 (53-38)

https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/499165642819184003-f-m-poll-release-october-2018-draft-1.pdf

If we were able to take PA-10 and PA-16, I think I would cry. Now if PA-11 was included too...

If this is accurate, I'd love to see the margin of PA-09.

[Gass3268]

NPR/Marist, Oct. 28-29, 822 RV including 509 LV (1-week change)

RV: D 50 (nc), R 44 (+4)

LV (no priors): D 52, R 43

I don't like the +4 R with RVs, but I'll take the LVs.

As a Democrat, it feels weird to see LV screens get more Democratic. I don't think I've ever seen that since I've started closing watching polling (2008).

[Gass3268]

GOP poll has IL-14 as a tie:

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Source

[Gass3268]

GOP poll has IL-14 as a tie:

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Source

This is on my list of potential upsets.

Roskam is beyond gone if IL-14 is this close.

[Gass3268]

OH-GCB:

Democrats 46%
Republicans 45%

Cygnal (R)

This is a R+4 sample too.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/AlyseGalvin/status/1058117114677014528

[Gass3268]

VA-10 (Washington Post-Schar School Poll):

Wexton 54 (-2%)
Comstock 43 (+/-)

Kaine 58%
Confederate Corey 39%

Source

[Gass3268]

Where the F are all my quality GCB polls? CNN? FOX? Pew? ABC/WaPo? Quinnipiac? Where are all of you people?

CNN has been releasing polls at noon. Maybe we get one today?

A lot of these might be waiting for the Sunday shows.

[Gass3268]

Emerson Iowa Polls

IA-01: Abby Finkenauer (D) 53%, Rod Blum (R-inc) 41%, 2% undecided
IA-02: Dave Loebsack (D-inc) 53%, Christopher Peters (R) 40%, 5% undecided
IA-03: Cindy Axne (D) 46%, David Young (R-inc) 45%, 6% undecided
IA-04: Steve King (R-inc) 51%, JD Scholten (D) 42%, 4% undecided

[Gass3268]

Where the F are all my quality GCB polls? CNN? FOX? Pew? ABC/WaPo? Quinnipiac? Where are all of you people?

Did someone say more Texas polls?

We should poll Texas again just to make sure.

[Gass3268]

There is gonna be a final Washington Post - ABC News Poll

My guess is you'll see it Sunday at midnight, before the morning show.

[Gass3268]

ABC / WaPo (10/29 - 11/1)
Democrats: 51%
Republicans: 44%

Mixed bag here. D+7 is pretty good, but it's a noticable decline from their previous D+11 poll. Also, you've gotta love the hedging in their headline:

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Brave.

Republicans only gained a point from their prior poll. Most of the movement came from Democrats losing three. The other two points went to "Other" and "Neither."

[Gass3268]

I'm not sure if it's 8 or 7. ABC is reporting 8, Washington Post is saying 7.

538 entered it at 8, but adjusted it down to 6.

[Gass3268]

Best number in this poll is D+5 in the battleground seats, given that's almost entirely on Republican turf.

Makes me think that a lot of the movement here is coming in the Solid R districts.

[Gass3268]

Wasn’t their last August poll during Cohenfort?

Wish they polled more often

They did one in October.

[Gass3268]

That WaPo poll was D+13 in October. That is worrying.

Reading into it, basically they've solidified rural voters. Democrats have a 5 point lead in the overwhelmingly Republican battleground seats.

[Gass3268]

NBC/WSJ Final poll is D+7

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/democrats-hold-7-point-edge-final-national-nbc-wsj-poll-n931001

Democrats have double digit leads with seniors, independents, and over 20 point leads with whites with a college degree.

[Gass3268]

[Gass3268]

Hmm, the quality pollsters come out, and just like 2006/2010, looking like the lead collapsed at the end. With gerrymandering being what it is, I'm betting the House isn't gonna go the Dems' way 

Of course you are.

Prove me wrong with data and numbers instead of insults. All I see are former double digit leads collapsing to mid-single digits.

https://twitter.com/Patrick_J_Egan/status/1059061296304398337

[Gass3268]

Hmm, the quality pollsters come out, and just like 2006/2010, looking like the lead collapsed at the end. With gerrymandering being what it is, I'm betting the House isn't gonna go the Dems' way 

Of course you are.

Prove me wrong with data and numbers instead of insults. All I see are former double digit leads collapsing to mid-single digits.

NYT/Siena has been considerably friendlier to Democrats lately compared to just a few weeks ago.

That said, it’s reasonable to think gains are more around 28-30 seats rather than 38-40

I could be wrong, but looking at the individual district polling data improving for Democrats and those battleground polls staying consistently between 3-5 points, is that Republicans might be extending their leads in their safe districts.