North Dakota was 16 more points Republican in 2016.
Why does atlas not realize that Trump won ND by 36?
That in and itself doesn't account for everything. If that were the only deciding factor, Joe Manchin should also be losing, but he isn't.
It's partly because Manchin voted to confirm Neil Gorsuch's nomination at the SCOTUS, because he's a moderate Democrat and he supports coal. Meanwhile, unlike Manchin, both Heitkamp and Tester are voting against Brett Kavanaugh's nomination at the Supreme Court and Tester supported Barack Obama's War on Coal (even though Montana is America's 7th coal producer and coal generates 55 % of Montana's electricity).
Heitkamp has yet to state her voting intentions and lol on War on Coal. The only bigger joke than the War on Coal is the War on Christmas.