Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[Gass3268]

Washoe County (I added the early vote and the absentee ballots):

October 27, 2018

Democratic - 2,385 (42.01%) (+4.75%)
Republican - 2,115 (37.26%)
Nonpartisan - 1,177 (20.73%)
Total - 5,677

Source

That's good, right?

That's very good. This is a county with a 2 point GOP registration lead.

Totals right now are:

Democratic - 26,928 (41.65%) (+1.38%)
Republican - 26,038 (40.27%)
Nonpartisan - 11,685 (18.07%)
Total - 64,651

[Gass3268]

First day of early voting here in Volusia County:

3,068   Republicans
2,774       Democrats
1,344       NPA/OTHER

Total: 7,186

Mail-in ballots:
25,192          Republicans
21,338          Democrats
11,772          NPA/OTHER

Total: 58,302

Dang, for a county trending R like Volusia, that's pretty good.

In 2000, Volusia was one of the Democratic counties that Gore wanted to have recounted. Why is Volusia trending Republican?

FL as you know is Gods waiting room. The dem base in the county was Urban Whites/Minorities in Deltona, WWC's in the in the scattered towns, and dem leaning retirees from the glory days of the New Deal Coalition. Trump flipped some of the WWC, and the retirees are...dead. So the county still has a registered dem base, but its shrinking towards the urban whites and Minorities in Deltona and and a few other communities.

Yet it appears that Soderberg has a chance in FL-06.

[Gass3268]

Here are the Democratic margins each day (some of these are close estimates due to not being able to get the precise number down to the single digit):

4,435   10/20/18
1,630   10/21/18
1,935   10/22/18
2,535   10/23/18
2,334   10/24/18
2,235   10/25/18
2,934   10/26/18
4,007   10/27/18
2,756   Average

If Democrats can match their average for the last 6 days, you get to a 38,579 lead in Clark County.

[Gass3268]

Republicans only have a 2.81% lead in FL. Very weak lead for them compared to 2014. Especially when NPA's are between 55-45 to 60-40 Democratic (most young people and Puerto Ricans register as NPA's).

[Gass3268]

Republicans only have a 2.81% lead in FL. Very weak lead for them compared to 2014. Especially when NPA's are between 55-45 to 60-40 Democratic (most young people and Puerto Ricans register as NPA's).

Republicans will have the biggest "GOTV Machine" on Wednesday when Trump will be in the State. You still underestimate Trumps GOTV credentials.

Senator Roy Moore and Congressman Rick Saccone agree.

[Gass3268]

Looking at Ralston's blog post, I did not realize that the Democrats have a strong chance of a super majority in both bodies. That would be excellent.

[Gass3268]

PA doesn't have early voting.

Basically it's just absentee voters, so old people.

[Gass3268]

Any one else watching the early vote numbers come in nearly real time on several Florida county websites? More addictive than watching a NYT poll  The excitement of my afternoon was watching Democrats take the lead in total returns in Duval County.

There's a lot of DINOs in Duval, unfortunately. It has a D+4 registration advantage but always votes Republican unless Dems are doing REALLY well (like Nelson 2012, for instance). Even Obama lost it in 2008.

I think its less DINOs and more demographics. More Conservative White NPA's here in contrast to the AAs which a deep blue by Party ID.

Yet the county does appear to be trending Dem and I think Gillium has a good chance of winning the county.

[Gass3268]

I voted yesterday at our local early voting site. Hogan will win in Maryland, but he won't win our area.

[Gass3268]

Another 5,100 people have early voted today here in Volusia County, much favorable to Democrats now

Early vote totals:
Democrats - 4,969
Republicans - 4,968
NPA/OTHER - 2,307

TOTAL: 12,244

VBM total:
26,340 Republicans
22,273 Democrats
12,381 NPA/OTHER

TOTAL: 60,994

Total votes cast so far: 73,238

As a local, how do you think look there?

[Gass3268]

One thing to note is Ralston said that Republicans best days in Clark County come on the Monday and Tuesday of week two. Will be interesting to watch.

[Gass3268]

Great weekend for Democrats in Florida. They have cut down the Republican advantage to 2.2%. It was 6.4% at this time in 2014.

Republicans: 1,151,593 (42.3)
Democrats: 1,092,547 (40.1)
NPA/Minor: 482,252 (17.7)
Republican edge is 59,046 (+2.2%)

[Gass3268]

Great weekend for Democrats in Florida. They have cut down the Republican advantage to 2.2%. It was 6.4% at this time in 2014.

Republicans: 1,151,593 (42.3)
Democrats: 1,092,547 (40.1)
NPA/Minor: 482,252 (17.7)
Republican edge is 59,046 (+2.2%)

But aren't Democrats supposed to do better on weekends anyway? If they couldn't eliminate the GOP lead over their best days, how likely is it that they'll ever catch up in the early vote?

Most polling that has given the Democrats a mid-single digit lead has the electorate at +3 Republican. Democrats are leading in polling because they are dominating with that NPA group, as they are heavily young and Puerto Rican. If Democrats can keep that number around 3 or below, I feel good. Also there are a lot more VBM ballots still unreturned by Democrats, than Republicans. Yes those still have to be sent in, and that's an if, but there is a lot more sitting out there.

[Gass3268]

Democrats keep gaining in Arizona.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1056975146559332352

[Gass3268]

Democrats keep gaining in Arizona.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1056975146559332352

What % of "Others" typically vote Dem?  And what % of (Moderate) Republicans do polls show are likely to support Sinema?

The NYT poll which had McSalley up 2 had Sinema winning 13% of registered Republican, McSally winning 13% of registered Democrats and Sinema winning other 51-42. That was two weeks ago, but Sinema needs to improve on those numbers a bit to have a chance.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1056973706856062976

I'm going to need a whole farm full of eggs for November 7th. I'm so excited! I feel like a kid waiting for Christmas again.

Can I also join you in putting eggs on Atlas poster faces about this race?

Not just Atlas posters...countless pollsters, pundits, "experts"...the list goes on!

Don't forget to include me in the effort.

Ralston seems to be saying that NV-04 is close to being gone for Republicans, and that NV-03 is starting to look bad for them as well. In other words, water is wet.

Also it looks like the Democrats have a lock on a supermajority in the Nevada Assembly and could get one in the Nevada Senate.

[Gass3268]

Total early voting results so far here in FL:

Republicans:  1,760,354 - 39.3%
Democrats: 1,821,290 - 40.7%
NPA/OTHER: 897,830 - 20%

Total so far: 4,479,474

Where did you get this from? This is higher than I've seen else were.

[Gass3268]

Republicans are cannibalizing their vote at a higher rate than Democrats and NPAs.

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Source

[Gass3268]

Dems up to a nearly 28k lead statewide in Iowa, big leads in IA-01 and IA-03. Source: Bleeding Heartland.

Do we know how this compares to 2014? I know the dates are different because there were 10 less days.

[Gass3268]

Dems up to a nearly 28k lead statewide in Iowa, big leads in IA-01 and IA-03. Source: Bleeding Heartland.

Do we know how this compares to 2014? I know the dates are different because there were 10 less days.

https://twitter.com/desmoinesdem/status/1057022400959823872

Very nice, thank you!

[Gass3268]

Not too worried about Michigan, given that the state has pretty strict rules when it comes to early voting with leads to more older voters.

[Gass3268]

Marc Caputo has been concern trolling that the African American numbers don't look good, but Steve Schale reminds everyone that the current 11% is higher than 2014 and 2016 at this point.

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1057096582250881024

[Gass3268]

Also, I don't think Beto wins, but this is nuts:

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1057097823953567744

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1057101948590022656

Continuing weak numbers from the GOP in Washoe. They should be running up the margin today and tomorrow.

Wow, that's weak.

[Gass3268]

There were barely any absentees counted in Washoe over the weekend so thinking that it is just a ballot backlog being counted today.

This is correct.