Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[Gass3268]

Florida:

Republicans:  748,091 (42.7%)
Democrats:  694,923 (39.7%)
NPA/Minor: 308,461 (17.6%)
Totals: 1,751,451

As of this morning, Republicans lead by 53,168 (+3.03%, was 8.8% in 2014).

Yesterday, we were at 1,448.251, with the GOP holding an edge of 52,850 votes (+3.65%).

The day was pretty much a push.  Republicans narrowly one the in-person early voting, while Democrats won the VBM return.

Steve Schale blog

Schale is probably the only guy I can really trust. He nailed FL in 2008 & 2012 for Obama so to speak. In his Post yesterday he said FL will be close with Candidates having a 48/47 Floor Vote.

He also guaranteed a 4 point Clinton win because of muh HISPANIC SURGE™, so take what he says through a certain lense

He then admitted he was wrong and missed the Trump surge in the outer Tampa area and that there was no way to forecast what was going to happen on election day.

Also I've noticed that the partisan breakdown (R+3) is pretty close to what a lot of the polling samples are. This makes sense as NDA's (Puerto Ricans and young people) lean fairly strong to Democrats in Florida.

[Gass3268]

Another better day for Democrats in Arizona:

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1055525820096118784

Total was +11.7% Republican.

[Gass3268]

Democrats are starting to push for folks with absentee ballots to get theirs in:

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1055529074355916800

[Gass3268]

Anyone want some North Carolina and Wisconsin numbers or should we wait until everyone cools off a bit?

[Gass3268]

I checked with the guy who made this graph, this does include both in-person and mail-in absentee/early vote:



https://twitter.com/jdjmke/status/1055551929756065794

That Milwaukee number is impressive considering they've been a little "eh" since 2012. Decent jump from yesterday too, based on the graph he posted yesterday where they were almost on the blue line.

[Gass3268]

I can't find the North Carolina chart I saw a couple hours ago. It was really good. I'll try to keep looking in a couple hours.

[Gass3268]

What's going on in Waukesha County?

My guess is Republicans who are fired up to vote for Walker that weren't fired up to vote for Trump. But that's nothing we didn't already know. Walker would be DOA if he was showing any weakness in WOW.

I’m pretty sure Walker is going to underperform his margins in the WOW counties too.

[Gass3268]

I can't find the North Carolina chart I saw a couple hours ago. It was really good. I'll try to keep looking in a couple hours.

Found it, will post it when I get home.

[Gass3268]

North Carolina:

[Gass3268]

North Carolina:

Not sure how best to interpret this data considering how many Demosaurs there are in the South

If Dems win anything in NC it'll just be icing on the cake anyway.

Pretty sure they are going to flip the Supreme Court seat due to Republican greed.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1055645858081923073

GOP finally eeked out a narrow win in Washoe today. Expected it much sooner than this.

Interested to see how Democrats did in Clark today.

I think I read this morning from Ralston that the Republicans up there were so concerned with the returns that they organized a GOTV rally for today.

[Gass3268]

This sh*t is just frustrating man. After all of Trump’s garbage how are rural areas turning out this hard

The most energized people to vote in 2018 are older college educated white democrats. Nevada doesn't exactly have many of those, so that's why dems are having trouble beating repubs in turnout here.

This isn’t just Nevada. It’s across the board in AZ, FL, IN, MT, and Texas

You're really getting on my goddamn nerves here. AZ, IN, MT, and TX are Republican states, which I think you've obviously forgotten, and Republicans usually do well in Florida early voting.

Two of those states have dem senators in them that looked in good shape for months now. Tester is probably fine cause Montana is purplish down ballot but what about Donnelly? Most pundits thought he was a safer dem with polling reflecting it yet now he is looking at a potentially massive EV hole. Or how about AZ? Sinema looked like our best recruit and McSally has run a bleh campaign yet she is looking at a possible 100k EV edge.

Like the AZ-06 special, Sinema is gonna need to flip a good chunk of registered Republicans in order to  even get it close. The goal there should be to just keep reducing the margin.

[Gass3268]

People need to quit freaking out about the Early Vote. Have faith in the fundamentals, national enviorment, and special election results not noise like this.

Special election results in comparison with early vote actual data in state like NV? Give me a break. Other is far more important at this point.

Also Florida update.

VBM now has Republicans by 60k. But in person early vote also has Republicans ahead now by around 1000 votes.

Either there is huuuuuge crossover vote and independents breaking heavily for Dems either polls are very wrong.

Democrats and NPAs are outpacing 2014, while Republicans are a bit under. Democrats cut the Republican lead down to 2.8% yesterday. Personally I feel pretty good about Florida.

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1055821434436702208

[Gass3268]

Republican advantaged dropped again In Arizona:

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1055896590110547968

[Gass3268]

Republican advantaged dropped again In Arizona:

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1055896590110547968

Does this include all counties or are there still some delayed?

Pretty sure this is everything.

[Gass3268]

Steve Schale is very excited:

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1055979708129648645

[Gass3268]

Clark looks to be over 25,000 today.

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1055983648397127681

[Gass3268]

Schale is a Democrat and is trying to hype that vote. He isn’t objective enough.

Ralston is pretty good at making predictions and breaking down the political realities of his state.

Schale has been cautious since the beginning of the voting.

[Gass3268]

Democrats win the Washoe early vote (again) by 45 votes.

However, mail-in/absentees cut into that and then some yet again. The GOP ultimately take the combined Washoe in-person/mail by a 3038-2949 margin, with 1460 NPA.

That means a roughly 40.7-39.6 GOP day. Not great, but I'm pretty sure it is better than yesterday and it's still close in Washoe.

Much better than yesterday, since they lost the combined vote in Washoe by 500-600.

Every day that Washoe is even close to a tie makes me feel good. I would have thought the Republicans would have taken control there by now.

[Gass3268]

So, when are we getting today's Clark numbers?

Ralston posted them at 1:53 AM ET yesterday.

[Gass3268]

Democrats had a good day in Clark. Won by 11% (45.4-34.4, 11.9K to 9K in terms of votes), added 2.9K to the freiwal, 26.1K total voted.

Firewall up to 18K. Tomorrow will be a big day for the Dems, Ralston is suggesting the culinary union has a GOTV push starting here.

[Gass3268]

Democrats had a good day in Clark. Won by 11% (45.4-34.4, 11.9K to 9K in terms of votes), added 2.9K to the freiwal, 26.1K total voted.

Firewall up to 18K. Tomorrow will be a big day for the Dems, Ralston is suggesting the culinary union has a GOTV push starting here.

God I hope so. It's still a long way to 35K.

Early voting lasts until 11/2, so 7 days. If Democrats can keep the current pace of at least winning the county by 2,000 votes they would have a lead of 32,000 by election day. Now if they can get a crooked number tomorrow and increase their margins for the last 6 days, which historically tend to happen, 35,000 is totally possible.

[Gass3268]

Ralston thinks the Republicans are canibalizing their vote. Pretty good recent blog post. Still not all peaches for the Democrats as only 12% of the early vote so far is under 40.

[Gass3268]

Looks like a few rurals are already reporting today. Unless those numbers are imcomplete (which is my guess), turnout is way down there. Surprised that we don't have any turnout reports from Clark yet.

I don't think the NV SOS spreadsheet publishes numbers until they're complete.

If that's the case, then unless Democrats had a bad day in Clark, they're likely headed for some gains.

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=5976

Democrats also didn't do that bad in Carson City.

[Gass3268]

Washoe County (I added the early vote and the absentee ballots):

October 27, 2018

Democratic - 2,385 (42.01%) (+4.75%)
Republican - 2,115 (37.26%)
Nonpartisan - 1,177 (20.73%)
Total - 5,677

Source