Virginia HoD Redraw Thread - SCOTUS will not stop map drawing

[Gass3268]

Looks like this is gonna happen as I seriously doubt the Supreme Court is gonna stop them.

Democrats are releasing their proposal today:

https://twitter.com/gmoomaw/status/1034848497558806528

[Gass3268]

Why are they releasing new maps?

I don't know the exact amount, but many of the seats in the House were ruled to be illegal racial gerrymanders.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1035273481087266816

[Gass3268]

Yea, I mean, it's far from a given right now, but I always get antsy when this sort of things starts to take shape, especially since Democrats already did it once before, not to mention other state examples, like New York.

I think it's probably unlikely that enough would support a veto override, especially if Northam comes out strongly against it, but we'll see. This may end up amounting to nothing in the end. Hopefully.

Interestingly this map uses the Democrat's map as the base. I think I read 7-8 of the effected 11 seats come directly from the Democratic proposed map. So many times politicians care more protecting their incumbency than even gerrymandering against the other party or especially a fair map. Still hopes Northam chooses to veto anything that comes out of the legislature and not read this as "bipartisan."

[Gass3268]

Northam will veto any map that comes out of the legislature, wants the courts to do the redraw:

https://twitter.com/RTDNEWS/status/1047241032151289856

[Gass3268]

My opinion for Virginia is fair maps for the state legislature, but a cleanish gerrymander for the Congressional map. Democrats have to match what's going to happen in KY, MO, and TN for the next cycle and say no to unilateral disarmament.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1053026724873678848

He's a professor at UC-Irvine and he did the 2015 redraw of the congressional map.

[Gass3268]

Grrrrrrrr

https://twitter.com/AHoweBlogger/status/1062354038757486593

[Gass3268]

Grrrrrrrr

https://twitter.com/AHoweBlogger/status/1062354038757486593

Oh no.

Reading through on Twitter, folks think there is probably 4 votes to overturn, but not 5. However, this probably means the 2019 elections will be done under the current lines.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1062371184044589061

I should note that I believe that Justice Thomas has ruled with the Liberals on I think all of these Virginia cases, but for completely different reasons. I think it's because he thinks there should be no VRA protections or something like that.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1082716973786648576

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/gmoomaw/status/1082722673753501696

[Gass3268]

I don't understand why they wouldn't stop the redraw now if they think they may make a different decision. It's really time-sensitive at this point, considering the 2019 primaries are coming up in June. If during the summer they decide to not allow the redrawn map for whatever reason, that will completely blow up Virginia's legislative elections, since they will have either already picked the nominees or would be very close to the primary election date.

They can't stop it because there are at least 4 Justices who want to hear the case, but them allowing the new maps to get implemented in the mean time tells me that the other 5 strongly disagree.

[Gass3268]

I don't understand why they wouldn't stop the redraw now if they think they may make a different decision. It's really time-sensitive at this point, considering the 2019 primaries are coming up in June. If during the summer they decide to not allow the redrawn map for whatever reason, that will completely blow up Virginia's legislative elections, since they will have either already picked the nominees or would be very close to the primary election date.

They can't stop it because there are at least 4 Justices who want to hear the case, but them allowing the new maps to get implemented in the mean time tells me that the other 5 strongly disagree.

This is fascinating because Roberts has historically been hardline "leave it to state legislatures" on all redistricting-related matters.  The 5th vote to uphold the redraw almost has to be Kavanaugh.

True, there are a couple different theories I have. One is that it's Thomas as I think he sided with the liberals in the similar case that occured for the congressional seats. The reasoning was awful, something like their should be no VRA and 0 consideration for race when drawing maps, or something like that. Two it could be Roberts, as while he has no problem overturning precedent, he has shown a great reultence to overturn precedent that was established during his tenure as Chief Justisce, even if he disagreed with the opinion. Third is your theory that it's Kavanaugh, but that would suprise me.

[Gass3268]

Not looking great for Virginia Republicans:

https://twitter.com/DrawFairLines/status/1088148509256241154

[Gass3268]

Dems are going to consolidate power very quickly to set them up for dominating the state for decades. We'll finally get early voting, same day registration, AVR, felon restoration which would bring out even more base voters to the polls. Plus gerrymandering the General Assembly and moving elections to Presidential years.

Along with voter ID repeal and hopefully removing the ban on governor's running for reelection.

Didn't McAuliffe individually restore the voting rights of all felons?

The idea would be to have a process that would do it automatically.