State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[Gass3268]

hey, it wasn't THAT bad. I'd rank this is a net positive in the 2019 gov race.

If you to extrapolate this out statewide, it would be a very narrow Republican win.

[Gass3268]

4th blue to red flip this year. Panic time?

Why should we panic a massive improvement from Clinton? Democrats are surging right now!

[Gass3268]

4th blue to red flip this year. Panic time?

An 80% Trump seat not holding for Democrats is not panic time.

What about a 60% Clinton seat going red?

So many excuses.

Dems lost a bunch of CT specials before 2018 and still ended up adding to their majorities in both houses.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/politico_chris/status/1103093254428463104

Republican gerrymandering strikes again.

I feel I must point this out, but the KY map isnt an R gerrymander, but a compromise/D favored map drawn during a split legislature with a D governor.

The House was, but the Senate was drawn to favor Republicans. That being said, this district was designed for a Democrat.

[Gass3268]

WULFRIC PROJECTION:

35/60 in:

KOSIEROWSKI, BRIDGET
(DEM)
61.88%
    Votes: 4,146
SCAVO, FRANK J III
(REP)
38.12%
    Votes: 2,554

Crisis averted. Whew.

Not only averted, but almost reverting to Obama levels.

[Gass3268]

After the result in PA-LD-114 it's clear that Democrats have regained their special election edge.

Don't draw too many conclusions from one district.  In some places like this they'll do as well or better than last year, in others they won't.

One general observation I've noticed:

Obama -> Trump rural areas have stayed pretty Republican. Minnesota's SD-11 is a good example of this.

Obama -> Trump urban/suburban areas seem to have jumped back, either to 100% Obama levels or a mix of Obama/Clinton areas. Last night's special in Pennsylvania would be a good example of this.

[Gass3268]

I'm excited for next week's PA-37 Senate race.

[Gass3268]

Polls are closed.

Plus the usual situation that ballots received by Friday that are postmarked today will still be counted.