Trump approval ratings thread 1.3

[Gass3268]

Quinnipiac Poll of Florida is coming out later today.

[Gass3268]

I find it funny that Trump's numbers are being buoyed by Zogby, Rasmussen and Morning Consult.

Gallup going weekly has really messed with countering Rasmussen.

[Gass3268]

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Two point improvement from June 2017.

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[Gass3268]

IBD/TIPP:

Approve 37% (+2)
Disapprove 58%

Source

[Gass3268]

Trump is only +2 in Nebraska

46% Approve
44% Disapprove

Source

[Gass3268]

Politico/Morning Consult gets pretty normal when you get a normal sample (Hillary +1):

43% Approve (-3)
53% Disapprove (+3)

Source

[Gass3268]

NBC News/Survey Monkey:

Approve 44% (-1)
Disapprove 55% (+2)

[Gass3268]

Trump is not very popular in New Jersey (Quinnipiac):

32% Approve
63% Disapprove

Source

[Gass3268]

Big Sky Poll - Montana:

Excellent + Good: 43% (Good 20%)
Fair + Poor: 53% (Poor 41%)

Source

[Gass3268]

I am really surprised why Trump is only at 48% approval in AL. Some kind of Doug Jones effect?

I think he's using the exit poll from the Doug Jones race, which I don't think is really appropriate given the difference between the electorate that turned out and the state in total.

[Gass3268]

PPP - National:

39% Approve (-5)
54% Diasppaprove (+5)

Source

[Gass3268]

Two more polls moving in opposite directions:

Morning Consult, March 26-27, 1997 RV


Approve 42 (-1)  (Strongly: 20)
Disapprove 53 (+2)  (Strongly: 38)

YouGov, March 25-27, 1500 adults

Approve 39 (+2)  (Strongly: 19)
Disapprove 49 (-3)  (Strongly: 40)

Interesting how there have been big swings towrds Trump in the live caller polls, but almost no swings (if anything swings away from Trump) in the robo and online polls.

[Gass3268]

BTW, the Morning Consult poll looks even worse when you delve into the crosstabs. This was with one of their funky Trump +5 samples:

2016 Vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton - 658 (33%)
2016 Vote: Republican Donald Trump - 767 (38%)
2016 Vote: Someone else - 89 (9%)

It's not uncommon for people to forget or otherwise misreport their past votes and say they went with who actually ended up winning. It's also possible that in addition to that issue, they over-polled Trump supporters, but I can't say for sure.

Most polls have shown the opposite, more people saying they voted for Clinton. MC is the only one I've seen regularly have a Trump lead.

[Gass3268]

New York City -  Quinnipiac:

19% Approve
76% Disapprove

Bronx: 16-82
Brooklyn: 24-70
Manhattan: 12-87
Queens: 18-75
Staten Island: 34-62!!!

Source

[Gass3268]

New York City -  Quinnipiac:

19% Approve
76% Disapprove

Bronx: 16-82
Brooklyn: 24-70
Manhattan: 12-87
Queens: 18-75
Staten Island: 34-62!!!

Source

Not good news for Dan Donovan

Especially if Michael Grimm gets the Conservative line.

[Gass3268]

New York City -  Quinnipiac:

19% Approve
76% Disapprove

Bronx: 16-82
Brooklyn: 24-70
Manhattan: 12-87
Queens: 18-75
Staten Island: 34-62!!!

Source

Holy moly

Didn't Trump win there?

By 15 points.

[Gass3268]

Latest Rasmussen Survey:
Approval: 45%
Disapproval: 53%
These are solid numbers for Trump, in that it shows virtually all the people that voted for him still support him.

This is like one of Trump’s worst Rassy polls in months.

[Gass3268]

Morning Consult 50-state approval tracker, March 1-31, 97,693 RV

https://morningconsult.com/2018/04/05/trumps-monthly-approval-rating-hits-record-low-in-march/

Overall: 41/54, which is a record low for this poll.

There is state-level data at https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/.  I know what pbrower2a will be doing today.

[Gass3268]

Washington Post-Kaiser Family Foundation:

Approve 40% (23% Strongly)
Disapprove 57% (47% Strongly)

Source

Also:

https://twitter.com/geoffgarin/status/982267170355798016

https://twitter.com/geoffgarin/status/982267346482937856

[Gass3268]

I think we should wait for a few more polls but I don't think he's getting a Syria bump.

Syria is already out of the headlines.

[Gass3268]

Morning Consult/Politico, April 13-16, 1995 RV

Approve 41 (-2)
Disapprove 55 (+3)

Strongly approve 20 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 41 (+2)

I have no idea what's going on with polling. The live caller polls are going towards Trump, but the online-robo pollers are going the other way.

[Gass3268]

Trump Indiana approval: 47%-48%


Source

[Gass3268]

CNN:

41 (-)
53 (-)

Unchanged since late March, though there have been slight bumps in issue polling. Also of interest: more Republicans believe Stormy Daniels now than in March.

Anyways, all the details in the link.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/07/politics/cnn-poll-trump-steady-right-direction-rises/index.html

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/993584096810098688

[Gass3268]

EPIC-MRA - Michigan:

37% Approve
61% Disapprove

Source

[Gass3268]

ARG, May 17-20, 1100 adults (change from last month)

Approve 37 (-1)
Disapprove 58 (+2)

Approval/disapproval by party ID:

R: 82/14
D: 6/91
I: 34/60

C+ rating from 538 tho, so I would be cautious about this one

ARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRG!