New PA Maps In Effect

[Gass3268]

wait the new PA-17 is the current what?

I know 14 is the current 18...

The new 17th is Beaver County + Northern Allegheny.

So wait, a swing district then?

Yeah, probably Lean R right now.

[Gass3268]

Who runs in the 4th if Boyle runs in the 2nd?

I wonder if Allyson Schwartz will jump back in here and Joe Sestak in the 5th.

[Gass3268]

Senate President Pro Tempore Joe Scarnati and House Speaker Mike Turzai says "implementation of this map would create a constitutional crisis"

[Gass3268]

Trump urging Republicans to challenge map. Clearly he doesn't understand what gerrymandering is.

Trump's tweet will be used in court against Republicans.

[Gass3268]

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I really don't see this going anywhere after the Supreme Court already refused to stay.

[Gass3268]

FiveThirtyEight's take

This article perfectly sums up what I said earlier -

The new PA map is NOT a Democratic gerrymander....it's just a plain, fair map.

People saying it's a dem gerrymander are going by the point of view that a 13R-5D delegation is "normal" and anything more beneficial must be a democratic gerrymander.   It isn't!   The 13R - 5D was the Republican gerrymander they were spoiled with this whole time.

Not to pile on my own party, but hell, I am passionately anti gerrymandering, in the Pennsylvania GOP deserves all the criticism it gets on this front. It's also worth adding that this 13 to 5 split came from repeated approximate 50 50 splits in the actual votes for the state's Congressional Delegation.

Anyone who wishes to try arguing that Republican gerrymandering is somehow "natural" do too concentrated Democratic strength in relatively compact urban areas need only look at map drawing abortions like the prior p a 7 and pa17 among others to see there is an EXTREMELY concerted and decidedly unnatural manipulation of District Lines to get that result.

Republicans brought this on themselves, undoubtably. That said, democrats are packed into Philly by virtue of geography. That's just a fact. Republicans could have easily drawn a 11-7 (or even 12-6) map with compact borders and few county splits (assuming that Fitzpatrick and Dent would win the roughly even PVI Bucks and Lehigh Valley based districts). Instead, they got greedy and drew monstrosities like PA-7, which is why it got thrown out.

I think Ohio (pro R) and Maryland (pro D) are the two most gerrymandered states left now. Any chances of those maps being thrown out?

There is currently a case against Maryland that could set the precedent that makes partisan gerrymandering unconstitutional. Hopefully it succeeds, even if I don't personally consider Maryland to be that bad. Democrats left very clean 8-0 maps on the table and a fair map would probably be 6-2. It just looks awful because you had incumbents with ridiculous demands for the areas they wanted to represented. John Sarbanes wanted his home in Towson, Annapolis, and some territory in the DMV so he could potentially run for statewide office sometime in the future. Hoyer lives Mechanicsville down in South Maryland, but he also wanted his alma mater in College Park. That's the main reason the map looks so bad.

[Gass3268]

Precedent as to why the Republican suit will go no where:

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All of this was during the last cycle of redistricting.

[Gass3268]

Ryan Costello just jumped the sharked:

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Statements like that will hurt him regardless of the district he has to run in.

[Gass3268]

Party registration by district:



Source

[Gass3268]

It looks like I’m right, my sources say the Republican-controled Pennsylvania legislature is going to seek the impeachment of all Democratic Pennsylvania Supreme Court Justices next week, thus preserving the current congressional map.

It's too late, the Governor and Secretary of State are already starting the process of implementation.

[Gass3268]

New Pa. congressional district map could be challenged by Common Cause, NAACP on civil rights grounds

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/pennsylvania-congressional-district-map-challenge-civil-rights-naacp-common-cause-philadelphia-gerrymandering-20180221.html

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You'd think they would be fine with the current map. It's not like it'll be in effect for more than 4 years. For gods sakes.

I actually was surprised that they didn't create a 2nd African American district in Philadelphia.

[Gass3268]

Somebody had the party registration numbers for the new districts.  Could we see those again please?

Party registration by district:



Source

[Gass3268]

Somebody had the party registration numbers for the new districts.  Could we see those again please?

Party registration by district:



Source

Imagine some of the Dem numbers here are inflated by old Demosaurs

Correct, but it's the main reason Lamb has a chance in the upcoming special election. Also, look how relatively weak Democrats are in Philadelphia suburban districts that Clinton won big.

[Gass3268]

Madeleine Dean is dropping out of the Democratic Lt. Governor Primary, running in the new PA-04 with endorsements from Ed Rendell and Michael Nutter.

[Gass3268]

The map is DOA.

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/967091731429670912

Justice Alito already shot this down, this is nothing.

[Gass3268]

I haven't seen it anywhere, so I went ahead and calculated the McCain v. Obama results for the new PA-17. To my surprise, McCain actually carried the seat by 1.6%. In fact, this seat may be one of the rare ones Pennsylvania to have actually trended Democratic for three elections in a row. It went for McCain by 1.6, Romney by about 4 points, and Trump by 2.5%. The seat wraps around most of Pittsburgh tightly, making it somewhat easier to map out than I thought it would be.



Also, relevant fact: Rothfus lost Beaver County to Mark Critz in 2012.

Also, anyone think Doyle’s new seat kind of looks like a ghost?

I saw this on twitter and thought it was more appropriate:

[Gass3268]

Here is the 2016-2012 swing map for the new districts:

[Gass3268]

Should note that the filling deadline for Pennsylvania is this coming Tuesday. Really hard to see any court overturning the new maps considering there are only like 5 days left and the massive amounts of confusion it would make to go back.

[Gass3268]

PAGOP fails at life:

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/975782584570572814

[Gass3268]

Here is the opinion if anyone is interested

[Gass3268]

SCOTUS stay has been denied.

Another PAGOP failure.

[Gass3268]

Should be noted that there was zero dissents.

[Gass3268]

For the 1 millionth time, Maryland's map isn't that bad. It only gives the Democrats 1 extra seat from what would be expected under a fair map. It just looks like avant garde art because of ridiculous demands from the incumbents on the area they represent.

Is this map fairer then the current Maryland map? It looks cleaner than the current one.

[Gass3268]

@badger
incumbents with statewide ambitions wanted their districts to touch as many of the big media markets as possible.
Easier to get on TV if a congressmen represents parts of a media market. Boosting your name-id by being seen on TV by as many people as possible helps out in a statewide primary.

I'm going to respectfully suggest that that is not even a tertiary consideration when drawing District Lines.

It's legit about Sarbanes. He wanted his home in Towson, Annapolis, and parts of the DMV. Never heard about it regarding Van Hollen however.

[Gass3268]

@badger
incumbents with statewide ambitions wanted their districts to touch as many of the big media markets as possible.
Easier to get on TV if a congressmen represents parts of a media market. Boosting your name-id by being seen on TV by as many people as possible helps out in a statewide primary.

I'm going to respectfully suggest that that is not even a tertiary consideration when drawing District Lines.

It's legit about Sarbanes. He wanted his home in Towson, Annapolis, and parts of the DMV. Never heard about it regarding Van Hollen however.

Yup. This is exactly right. Ruppersberger had some specific demands, too. And they live practically within shouting distance of one another to begin with.

He wanted the Aberdeen Proving Ground and Hoyer wanted College Park. Edwards originally wanted to keep her part of Montgomery County, but that was denied.