New PA Maps In Effect

[Gass3268]

Yeah, PA-17 is R+1 (R+0.84 to be exact)

PA-11 is R+8
PA-15 is R+1 (R+071 to be exact)

[Gass3268]

As Dave Wasserman puts it, this map is simply a less aggressive GOP gerrymander that sacrifices PA-07. Aka, this is an auto-veto. I also don't see any reason why the Dems would side with the Republicans to break Wolf's veto for this map, there is a 100% chance they get something better from the special master.

Especially with Brady no longer needing his special Philly based district.

[Gass3268]

I just read that this puts Lamb's home into Doyle's PA-14.

[Gass3268]

Lol, so they actually packed more Democrats into PA01 and PA02?

[Gass3268]

Wait, PA-15 got more Republican?!?

I think it was a mislabel: R+4.24->R+0.71

[Gass3268]

I just read that Wolf has a PhD in Political Science from MIT and his is dissertation on the United States House of Representatives was named the best of 1981 by the American Political Science Association.

Absolutely no way he doesn't veto.

[Gass3268]

So I think I have the full map - I can't be too sure without a zoom to Philly or Pittsburgh. However, after a complete draw, I don't see how this map has any chance of A. - Passing the Veto, and B. - passing the Court. The 7th isn't even chucked as originally thought, the Pubs kept it competitive in their greed. They also appear incredibly scared of Lamb, pushing the 18th several points to the right and putting his home outside the new seat. The only thing that Pubs didn't do way draw out Cartwright, but he still has a bunch of ancestral Republican Territory attached to what should be Lakawanna+Luzurne+Monroe.

PA-01: D+30.79 -> D+32.86
PA-02: D+40.09 -> D+41.19
PA-03: R+11.49 -> R+9.82
PA-04: R+11.11 -> R+16.8
PA-05: R+13.05 -> R+16.4
PA-06: R+1.98 -> R+3.59
PA-07: R+1.35 -> D+1.64
PA-08: R+1.56 -> R+1.64
PA-09: R+19.38 -> R+20.29
PA-10: R+16.32 -> R+16.61
PA-11: R+10.11 -> R+8.06
PA-12: R+11.55 -> R+7.33
PA-13: D+15.42 -> D+13.06
PA-14: D+17.02 -> D+16.66
PA-15: R+4.24 -> R+0.71
PA-16: R+4.94 -> R+7.49
PA-17: R+1.07 -> R+0.84
PA-18: R+10.76 -> R+12.93

That map still sucks. Sorry.

I give this map a 100% change of a wolf veto, and even if it somehow finds its way over (I doubt, anything would be better than this for dems, philly machine is dead) the court would reject this simply because of the number of cuts, not even needing to go into the partisan data. When Republicans said that they were going to do a redraw there was an actual chance of them drawing a fair map that tilted right, which would be acceptable to the court so Wolf would have to approve in order to avoid looking like a partisan. But this map? This map is just handing power over to the special master.

Oryxslayer, could you possibly post this map with the municipality lines? I want to try to get as much of the 16 information as possible.

[Gass3268]

Nate Cohen got the 2016 results:



Source

[Gass3268]

Nate Cohen got the 2016 results:



Source

If this became the map: (pickups in bold)

PA-1: Safe D
PA-2 Safe D
PA-3 Safe R
PA-4: Safe R
PA-5: Safe R
PA-6: Lean R (This is like Dave Brat's district)
PA-7: Likely D
PA-8: Lean R
PA-9: Safe R
PA-10: Safe R
PA-11: Likely R (Holden runs?)
PA-12: Lean R (Downballot Dem strength)
PA-13: Safe D
PA-14: Safe D
PA-15: Tossup
PA-16: Safe R (It's Lancaster County...)
PA-17: Likely R (Trump vs. Clinton #s are useless here)
PA-18: Safe R (in the general election)

So a Dem-Rep-Tossup split of 5-12-1

Also the 17th is not Likely-R, this is 4 points more Democratic than the current district and Cartwright doesn't even have anything close to a strong challenger right now. Likely/Safe D

[Gass3268]

The only reason this map stands a chance is because the PA Dems suck.

No wonder they tried to take down Sestak.

This map only stands a chance at getting past the veto because dems suck. From there, the court needs to approve it and spoiler, they won't approve these lines. So I say again for what -  the third time, this maps job appears to be just die. But we still don't know why the Pubs drew up a map that was going to fail, when they had two good options of standing their ground and denying legitimacy, or drawing a fair but right-leaning map that the court was forced to accept.

I actually don't think there will be time. The PASC gave the legislature until 2/15 to figure things out. Wolf could drag it out to 2/15, veto it, then the clock runs out and it gets sent to the PASC.

[Gass3268]

Exhibit B that this is a brutal Republican Gerrymander, the 2016 Senate race was 14-4:

[Gass3268]

So still no decision yet from Governor Wolf. My guess is he waits until the last possible second on Thursday to veto, which would give the legislature zero time to try a veto override before it kicks to the PASC.

[Gass3268]

Governor Wolf says No!

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Gass3268]

Reporter from the Philadelphia Inquirer tweeted to me that the PASC has told the executive branch to be ready for a new map by February 19.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Gass3268]

Oh, you think the PA Supreme Court will draw a fair map......

snip

Well I suppose we'll find out by next Monday. There has already been a lot of discussion about what the map could look like based on the rules the PASC dictated. It seems very unlikely they would push an unfair map, unless your definition of an unfair map was anything more friendly to Democrats than the current map. Do court-drawn maps even have a track record for being overly biased in favor of one party? I don't recall it being an issue.

I remember some Republicans complaining about Minnesota, yet as we've seen it's really been a great map with lots of potentially competitive races.

[Gass3268]

According to DKE, the PA supreme court is accepting submissions until tomorrow...anyone have any idea where that is?

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/2/8/1739648/-Pennsylvania-will-soon-redraw-its-House-map-to-end-GOP-gerrymandering-How-would-you-draw-the-lines

Tweet it to the special master

After searching around on the web I found no to here mention of public submissions, so I wouldn't be surprised if they outright lied. Politicswolf often comes up with schemes like this to justify him spamming his maps, its why I hold him and DK in very low regard.

To be safe though, I did prepare a report and send it to the master.

Michael Li from the Brennan Center at NYU says everyone can submit a map.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Gass3268]

This is the map PA House Democrats propose.

That 11th District is hilarious. I imagine Obama won in 2008 and it would totally be competitive moving forward.

[Gass3268]

I imagine the 2016 race was at least close in that 11th district, Clinton did well in Dauphin County.

Someone with DRA accessabilty (I'm at work) needs to draw up that 11th ASAP.

[Gass3268]

Numbers from the Democratic Map:

[Gass3268]

PlanScore says this map is better than the Republican redraw:

[Gass3268]

PlanScore says this map is better than the Republican redraw:

Something to note is geography. Some states have dem leaning geography, some states have rep leaning geography. PA leans heavily rightward in geography. This is how DKE is defending this map, by saying dems need to draw a gerrymandered map to correct for this geography. However, as I showed, you can get a 5-8-5 map which could easily elect a dem majority without aggressive lines.  

Agreed, I think you can make a very clean map that is competitively fair.

My guess it that PASC will draw a fair map, but it will look closer to the Democratic version.

[Gass3268]

Map presented by Republican Activists:

[Gass3268]

Map presented by Senate Democrats:

[Gass3268]

It was nice of the Senate Dems to put where the current incumbents live on the map. I'll have to see where folks would end up on Oryxslayer's map, which is my favorite so far.

[Gass3268]

Stephan Wolf's amicus brief that he submitted to the court