2017 Virginia HoD Thread

[Gass3268]

Drumroll please:

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Seeing this confirmed by other reporters now.

[Gass3268]

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[Gass3268]

It is still to close to call in my view 1 vote either way is insane!
I think a second recount is in order!

Nah, bye 👋🏻

I think we need a decision first on the 2 challenged ballots.

[Gass3268]

So much for Speaker Cox!

There are games he could still play to get elected speaker.

[Gass3268]

It is still to close to call in my view 1 vote either way is insane!
I think a second recount is in order!

Nah, bye 👋🏻

I think we need a decision first on the 2 challenged ballots.

If the challenged ballots are counted, would the lead increase to +3 or still +1?

Pretty sure it would go to +3.

[Gass3268]

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Always random, but I imagine this would have to lean Dem a bit if anything.

[Gass3268]

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[Gass3268]

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There will be lawyers!

[Gass3268]

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[Gass3268]

Considering the VA HoD map is a GOP gerrymander, come 2020 if the Dems have a trifecta, even a fair map will be devastating for the VA GOP.

This is why I was saying that when you consider the timing of this, once the Virginia Republicans lose power, it'll probably be for a long time - maybe until there is another realignment. Post-2019 elections in 2020, Democrats will push through extensive changes to election law, implementing same-day reg, auto reg, early voting, the works. This is on top of whatever they do with redistricting.

Move elections to Presidential years?

[Gass3268]

So hd 28 just goes even with the stupid ballot issues?

That's going to have to go through the courts. Maybe it gets throw out and we get another election, but I doubt it.

[Gass3268]

FYI, all three of the judges on the panel tomorrow are Republicans.

[Gass3268]

Virginia House Republicans have conceded:

[Gass3268]

I just got back from a One hour and Thirty minute episode without access to this race...damn Simmonds win by 1 vote! If VA law allows for second recounts, then that will 100% happen.

Also, can we officially refer to this as the Simmonds Landslide?

On HD 28, it is 100% in democrats interests to get the race thrown out. Doing so simplifies immediate House control, giving them a 50-49 Majority, and the subsequent special election would be a referendum on the parties and control of the state house - not local issues.

Virginia House Caucus conceded.

[Gass3268]

Such bs, they counted the ballot. The race is now a tie.

Aren't there still two or three disputed Simonds ballots?

I think they dropped the challenge on that when they were up. Might bring those up now.

[Gass3268]

Please remember that there are two Simmonds ballots that haven't been added to the count yet.

Sounds like both were counted.

[Gass3268]

Either way, even if Republicans do hold this seat in the end, it isn't the biggest loss. They will still control the state Senate regardless, and 50-50 gives more power to Democrats but not total power. I'm not entirely sure if there would be a big policy difference with a 50R-50D vs 51R-49D HoD.

Virginia Republicans are still favored to lose the legislature in 2019 (imo), so eventually the dam is going to break and Virginia's policy direction will veer towards the left.

Yeah, I'm wondering if Trump + Republican State Legislature would be a better sell in 2019 to drive out turnout.

[Gass3268]

A tie is still important as the two parties would have to split chairmanships of the committees.

[Gass3268]

Surprised this bit of news went unmentioned:

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1011730836645994496?s=21

There were 12 districts ruled unconstitutional by the federal court, and since there are about 22 districts adjoined with those, a new map would affect about 1/3 of the HoD.

Unfortunately I’m pretty sure those fascist goons Neil Gorsuch and Anthony Kennedy will stay this decision in no time.

Yeah, but I think I saw the Court has already routinely struck down maps where a set racial number (55% for the Virginia HoD) was used to draw districts.

[Gass3268]

There were 12 districts ruled unconstitutional by the federal court, and since there are about 22 districts adjoined with those, a new map would affect about 1/3 of the HoD.

Unfortunately I’m pretty sure those fascist goons Neil Gorsuch and Anthony Kennedy will stay this decision in no time.

I was so excited to see this this morning!

This case was on remand from SCOTUS which actually told the lower court to reconsider it's "not unconstitutional gerrymander" decision. I don't think SCOTUS will stay it.

This means the General Assembly will need to redraw the maps with Northam having veto power. Not an absolute guarantee but a court-appointed special master will probably need to do it, and that is good news for the Democrats.

This is what I was saying would really do the GOP in for sure if it came back favorable. Next legislative elections, the VAGOP is finished.

I’m guessing this will affect the Hampton Roads and Fredericksburg seats primarily, yes?

Also probably the Richmond/Southside seats as well. I assume NOVA probbaly goes untouched.

Also the article notes how this is similar to the 2016 case, so it might end up approved. If the case goes through it just icing on the cake for the expected D trifecta gain in 2019.

I remember there being a Supreme Court decision earlier in the decade where after they ruled that there needed to be another miniority seat in the DFW area. The judge assigned to redraw the map proceded to redraw the entire map, Texas challenged, and the Supreme Court ruled that the orginal intent of the map had to repected, other than the seat that was found to be illegal and the sorounding areas.

It is possible that this process could be different, because you will have a Democratic Governor that will in all likelihood veto whatever the legislature sends his way, so I don't know if they view the original intent from 2011.