VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[Gass3268]

Very surprised Gillespie decided to run a conservative base campaign on social issues.  What about all of the Obama 2012/Clinton 2016 voters he got in NOVA back in 2014?  They aren't going to like this at all.

My guess is his polling shows he's struggling to get Stewart voters to commit to voting for him.

[Gass3268]

Well, my threshhold for a blowout in Virginia is at 7 points or more. I'd think Northam has a decent shot at getting that margin. If he's winning by 7+ points statewide, I'm guessing he'd be winning Chesapeake, Virginia Beach, doing about as well as McAuliffe in southwest VA, getting just shy of HRC's NOVA margins, and Chesterfield County being a coin flip.

The CW now seems to be that Gillespie is getting what he needs in NOVA but lagging behind Cuccinelli and well behind Trump in rural VA, hence Gillespie's relentless focus on driving rural base turnout.

If the CW is that Gillespie is fine in NoVA, then, I am astounded. NOVA is very likely to have insanely high turnout relative to 2013, and that's largely a function of them hating Trump. Sure, Gillespie may be a better fit for there than Cuccinelli, but I highly doubt that he will manage to hit the 40% in Fairfax that he needs to win. And he'd need to come very close to winning Prince William and Loudoun, if not win them outright. Frankly, he'd be doing well to hit 45% in each of those counties in this environment. This is the hotbed of anti-Trump rage.

Maybe I'm wrong and he does as well in NOVA as he did in 2014. But given the intense Democratic enthusiasm nationwide that wasn't there in 2014, it'd probably be a miracle.

Or turnout could be reasonably strong still in NOVA to cause a bit of a cancel out effect, which puts importance back into places like VA CDs 5,6, and 9.

And in such a case, skipping the Buena Vista Labor Day Parade is the nail in the coffin for Northam.

Either way, I can't imagine a blowout for either side really happening.

Northam spending time in Harrisonburg is a better use of his time then Buena Vista.

[Gass3268]

Virginia Republicans and Democrats are trapped because of Virginia's cultural divide. NOVA Moderates VS Rural populists and/or conservatives trap the candidates. Gillespie is being smarter about it. Northam is facing a Hillary Clinton-esque concern: No message. You cannot please everyone and when you try, you lose voter enthusiasm, which is important in off year elections. This is Northam's race to lose, but Gillespie could still win. Another issue is that polls in Virginia tend to overestimate Democratic support (just like polls in Nevada overestimate Republican support). Northam needs a comfortable lead to be safe, which appears to be slightly declining after the shaky debate performance where he lacked a message. President Obama stumping for Northam will help. I wonder if Pence stumping for Gillespie in Coal Country would help drive up turnout?

Northam's lead has been expanding

[Gass3268]

Obama is coming to Richmond!

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[Gass3268]

So... that new Quinnipic poll is quite a doozy.

[Gass3268]

Should note that the method used for devising the sample is resulting in the big differences in the polls:

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[Gass3268]

NBC First Read: In Virginia, Democrats enjoy nearly every advantage:




Only advantage they give Gillespie is that Democratic turnout is typically low in non-Presidential years, but counter that by saying that Democrats were much more enthusiastic during the June primary.

Source

[Gass3268]

LOL at there being D-held seats in the Swampburbs that are "competitive."

Sabato is using competitive as a universal classification covering Likely, Lean, and Toss-Up. You'll notice that the three Dem seats Sabato has as competitive aren't marked Safe on DDHQs map either.

Minus HD-34

[Gass3268]

LOL at there being D-held seats in the Swampburbs that are "competitive."

Sabato is using competitive as a universal classification covering Likely, Lean, and Toss-Up. You'll notice that the three Dem seats Sabato has as competitive aren't marked Safe on DDHQs map either.

Minus HD-34

I see that now. Mixed up that and 32, LOL.

Easy mistake.

[Gass3268]

Here's DDHQs VA delegate map - done by James Miles Coleman.  Note they rate district 02, and 42 as safe dem pickups.

I also have to strongly recommend Miles's 6-part preview on the competitive seats in the Virginia House of Delegates. Hundreds of maps, information on fundraising and number of volunteers, historical background, etc.

[Gass3268]

A Trump rally wouldn't help Gllespie.

Agreed, would loose 3-5% in NoVa.

[Gass3268]

Flawless, Beautiful Marco Rubio and Susana Martinez will be campaigning for Gillespie!!!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/marco-rubio-susana-martinez-to-rally-for-ed-gillespie-in-northern-virginia/2017/10/24/1e86c4aa-b8d6-11e7-a908-a3470754bbb9_story.html

If Pence couldn't draw a crowd, neither will this.

[Gass3268]

Flawless, Beautiful Marco Rubio and Susana Martinez will be campaigning for Gillespie!!!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/marco-rubio-susana-martinez-to-rally-for-ed-gillespie-in-northern-virginia/2017/10/24/1e86c4aa-b8d6-11e7-a908-a3470754bbb9_story.html

If Pence couldn't draw a crowd, neither will this.

If Trump decided to do a couple rallies in SW Virginia would that help Gillespie?

I the SW sure, but it would probably have a possible equal negative effect in NoVa.

[Gass3268]

National Journal: Progressives fear that Northam could pave the way for a moderate revival within the party

Haha.

Even though there was an article the other day how Northam is to the left of many in the party on Education.

[Gass3268]

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[Gass3268]

RCP put a partisan poll in their average? I thought they didn't as a rule? Of course they pick the one without the libertarian candidate.

[Gass3268]

Washington Post endorses Northam, Fairfax & Herring

[Gass3268]

Washington Post endorses Northam, Fairfax & Herring

How shocking.

Said no one.

They endorsed Comstock last year

[Gass3268]

They didn't just endorse the Democratic ticket, they went after the Republicans:

[Gass3268]

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[Gass3268]

A new Quinnipiac poll coming out today. Sort of bummed they didn't go out into the field this weekend.

[Gass3268]

New ad from Latino Victory is really something

[Gass3268]

There are so few Latino voters in VA I am not sure why this group is even getting involved. Maybe a positive mailer would've been more effective than an ad that only generates negative press for Northam.

This ad is geared to "northeastern" NoVa suburbanites that don't like the "racist southern rednecks" that live in the "other" parts of the state and playing up to the fears of the white nationalists from Charlottesville. It's not pretty, but it's a good response to the dirt that Gillespie has run.

[Gass3268]

Relevant, one comment but if this is a trend... (and it's looking likely)

https://www.predictit.org/Market/2404/Which-party-will-win-the-2017-Virginia-gubernatorial-race
The Zenome Project • an hour ago
The Latino Victory ad has done quite a bit of damage, at least with my greater family in NoVA. My relatives there were saying that a bunch of their people were either going to stay away from the election or vote Gillespie after seeing that commercial. It's also going viral on mainstream conservative media, as Tucker Carlson covered it last night and Mark Dice (the right-wing TMZ account) posted the commercial a few hours ago.

Folks always say this about negative ads, but they generally have the desired effect regardless of the anecdotes.  

[Gass3268]

There are so few Latino voters in VA I am not sure why this group is even getting involved. Maybe a positive mailer would've been more effective than an ad that only generates negative press for Northam.

This ad is geared to "northeastern" NoVa suburbanites that don't like the "racist southern rednecks" that live in the "other" parts of the state and playing up to the fears of the white nationalists from Charlottesville. It's not pretty, but it's a good response to the dirt that Gillespie has run.

You know what, I am so sick of this IDENTITY POLITICS BS from the Democrats that it almost makes me want to vote for Ed. I won't but they need to get off their holier than thou high horse esp come next year and more so in 2020. I am originally from NJ but raised in central VA and moved to NoVA due to a job opportunity and I can tell you not everyone south of PW is some "dumb redneck, herp derp, uhuh!" It is actually quite moderate but some conservative areas but a beautiful part of the state but is suffering economically. But let's ignore that Dems and just keep calling them hicks! Sure, that's a great way to win more votes...

Wait, Gillespie has been running white identity ads on MS-13 and Confederate statues for months, but it's the Democrats that only do identity politics?

What am I missing here?