2014 US Congressional Election Results

[Miles]

^ And LA-06 for Graves.

[Miles]

First precinct in Ascension Parish. She's going to get Blanche'd, maybe to the point where we're going to call it getting Landreiu'd .

Ascension Parish is heavily Republican.

[Miles]

AP calls it

[Miles]

Sweet! Orleans is starting to come in and Landrieu is over 40% statewide!

[Miles]

Its mostly early vote, ATM, bur Caddo and EBR look pretty bad Landrieu losing both by about 8.

[Miles]

Nevermind, she just pulled ahead in Caddo.

[Miles]

Anyone have a link to her speech?

It should be here.

[Miles]

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[Miles]

Cassidy speech coming soon.

[Miles]

Caldwell is at 100% reporting and Cassidy wins 75-25. Landrieu is down 3 from November 4. So, if trends hold, 38% statewide.

Caldwell is on of the smallest (and most R) parishes in the state. Don't extrapolate that much from it.

[Miles]

Jefferson is pretty close; Cassidy is only winning it by 5-6 with almost everything in.

[Miles]

84/118 precincts left are from Orleans. She'll get close to 44%

Looks like my 43.5% prediction was good

[Miles]

Republicans should be alarmed at this result.

Oh yeah, they ONLY beat a sitting Senator by 10-14 points. /sarcasm

Many of the AoS workers I was updating the election data with (I was the only Democrat) were disappointed at Cassidy's margin.

[Miles]

I think New Orleans has a lot of moderate suburbanites.

Actually, no. Landrieu's (relatively) good showing in Jefferson Parish has much more to do with demographic change since the storm.

[Miles]

All of Orleans is in and Cassidy is up 56/44.

[Miles]

I think New Orleans has a lot of moderate suburbanites.

Actually, no. Landrieu's (relatively) good showing in Jefferson Parish has much more to do with demographic change since the storm.

That makes sense. Romney performed worse than Bush despite him doing better in the state. Could that explain St. Bernard, too?

All of Orleans is in and Cassidy is up 56/44.

Yeah, what a Blanching. The early votes were so deceptive, and of course pollsters did what they did all this cycle, they poll to get a response close to the overall consensus.

I'll get deeper into the weeds later with precinct maps, but yeah. Same thing in St. Benard Parish. It gave David Duke 55%+ both times but went for Landrieu this year and in 2008. How times change haha

[Miles]

^ Cameron Parish is dark red but Landrieu still only got 21% there!

[Miles]

AOSHQDD calls Senate for Cassidy.

Don't remind me

[Miles]

Landrieu = red, Melancon = blue:

[Miles]

Landrieu's runoff's in 2002 vs 2014. Terrell= red, Cassidy = blue.

[Miles]

^ If Vitter becomes Governor, I'd say odds are better than 50% he tries to get rid of it. Interestingly, most of my friends in the LADP also want to trash it.

[Miles]

Why would Republicans trash it? It probably helps them over all.

Because it gets people like Vance McAllister elected. The argument is that, as R-on-R races will become more frequent, they're letting Democrats pick their winner.

[Miles]

LA by CD:

[Miles]

The Cajuns in Acadiana were the worst traitors:

[Miles]

^ I was kinda shocked when I saw that LA-03 went more Republican than LA-01.

It really shows how Republican rural whites have gotten. LA-01 is actually the most white, but Landrieu's crossover appeal in the New Orleans metro cancelled that out.

10 years ago, it would have never seemed that CD3 would be more R than CD5.