NC: SUSA: Tie

[Miles]

Report.

Hagan (D)- 44%
Tillis (R)- 44%
Haugh (L)- 5%
Other - 3%
Not sure- 5%

10% already voted, and Hagan leads 56/37 with them.

[Miles]

Well, Tillis still isn't winning enough whites to win this one, but the race seems to have tightened.

He's been winning whites consistently by something like 55/35. Its actually pretty on par with 2008; Hagan lost whites 57/39 then.

[Miles]

^ Sadly, there were no exit polls in 2010, so its hard to compare apples to apples.

Bush's margin in 2004, though, was about the same as Burr's and he put together a similar coalition. Bush won the white vote 73/27.

Hagan won the two-party vote 54/46. If Dole ran slightly behind Bush's numbers, and got only 70% of whites, she would have flipped Hagan's margin.