NC 2016 Gubernatorial Discussion Thread

[Miles]

For the AG race, Stein is running circles around Newton. This is closer to Lean D than Tossup, IMO.

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[Miles]

^ Troxler would still be hard to beat.

When Obama carried the state, Berry still (barely) hung on, but Meeker is stronger than the opponents she's had the last few times.

[Miles]

^ Er, no I've never rated Berry as safe. She's favored but she'll probably win by a closer margin than last time.

[Miles]

The NBA is pulling the 2017 All Star game from Charlotte over HB2. Bad news for McCrory, as this is one of the most high profile instances of HB2 hurting the state's business.

[Miles]

As if McCrory needs any more bad press from this, the NCAA is pulling its championship games from NC, citing HB2.

The NC GOP's response is something else:

[Miles]

The ACC is following the NCAA in pulling championship games from NC.

State Sen. Tamara Barringer is the first Republican calling for HB2's repeal. She represents a slightly R-leaning (52% Romney) seat in suburban Wake County, so exactly the type of area where McCrory is set to crater in.

[Miles]

Oh look, McCrory is digging in deeper with his defense of HB2:

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This is your Eisenhower Republican, folks.

[Miles]

^ For me, whats worse is the overreach - its another example of the R legislature trying to control the D cities.

[Miles]

McCrory open to repealing HB2, if Charlotte drops its LGBT protection ordinance:

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What a mess.

[Miles]

^ Stein has massively outraised Newton. As Newton was one of HB2's biggest advocates, Stein has made that an issue. calling it "Buck's Bill."

Stein's narrow 6% primary victory over a some dude was a bit worrying to me, but he's since resigned from the legislature to campaign full time.

I think NC and MS are the only southern states that haven't elected Republican AG's since Reconstruction.

[Miles]

An Attorney General debate from earlier this week.

[Miles]

There was a debate tonight, and I doubt it moves the needle much.

I wish Cooper would be more aggressive, but that's just not his style.

Probably the biggest thing Democrats got out of this was this sound bite where McCrory says Trump is a role model (in some regards).

[Miles]

^ Yeah, I'm really hoping she wins this time, after it was so close in 2012.


For the first time since I've been alive, the Charlotte Observer is endorsing McCrory's opponent.

[Miles]

^ Yes.

Looks like Cooper picked up votes today - his lead is up to over 5700 last I checked.

[Miles]

What evidence is there of these fraudulent ballots?

The fact that they're all from minority-heavy counties.

[Miles]

^ Yeah, I would have probably voted for him in 2008, too (was slightly too young).

He definitely wasn't the ideological hack he is now.

[Miles]

^ When he went to run again in 2012, he we afraid of a primary challenge from the right, IIRC. He never got one, but must have kept that mindset. With the polarization increasing, I guess he thought his best bet was to keep tying his race to the national party.

Reminds me a lot of Bobby Jindal's trajectory as well.

[Miles]

This is still mostly the election day vote (whats available ATM), but here's McCrory (red) vs Trump (blue). Looks like McCrory got a fair hurricane boost out east:

[Miles]

^ Yeah, especially in places like Robeson County. Even when Dalton was losing by 12% last time, he still outperformed Obama there (60% vs 58%).

[Miles]

^ NC was already pretty bitterly divided before this election.

[Miles]

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Splendid news!

[Miles]

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[Miles]

^ It happened in 2004 with the Superintendent of Public Instruction's race.

Dr. Atkinson (who was actually narrowly upset herself this year) was leading by about 8,500 votes. Her opponent was contesting 11,000 provisional ballots. After more than six months, the Assembly (controlled by Dems at the time) voted to seat Atkinson.

This article explains it well. There was a voting machine in 2004 that actually malfunctioned and lost 4,000 votes - there were no lost votes this time, so that should make it less likely to be kicked to the Assembly.

[Miles]

[Miles]

I heard Cooper picked up about 500 provisional votes in Mecklenburg County today.