Welcome to the Runoff!: LA 2015 Liveblog

[Miles]

Interesting. And Roy is moderate-conservative Democrat, isn't he?

Yeah, in fact, he was actually considering running for the House again as an Independent.

[Miles]

I meant in terms of one of the statehouses approving it.  The GOP has a healthy majority in both chambers, plus conservadems, though I'm not sure what's needed for proposals like this to go through.

No; there was bipartisan pushback. Democrats obviously didn't like it. A lot of legislative Republicans thought Jindal tried to sideline them and also feared political backlash from such a drastic change.

[Miles]

Though its happened to a lesser degree in past years, look for Vitter to be especially involved in the legislative session now that he's running. If he can influence legislation now, it makes it easier for him down the road should he win.

The article outlines the painfully effective financial network he's cultivated over the years and his involvement in recruiting far-right candidates.

[Miles]

Well, the New Orleans mayoral race results should be worth watching. If Landrieu is forced into a runoff with Bagneris or wins outright by a underwhelming margin, he may think twice about running for Governor. I'd say the odds of a runoff are fairly low though, maybe 20-25%.


Last election, Landrieu carried all but one precinct; its hard to see how the electorate swings that much against him, as he's generally been a good mayor.

[Miles]

Early votes are 55-41 for Mitch.

[Miles]

55-41 is pretty low for him, no?

He got 66% with an noncompetitive field last time. Bagneris has made him sweat a bit this time.


Anywho, with 15% in, its up to 60-36.

[Miles]

Well, they're projecting it will be 65%. The SoS site mist be running slow.

Good; the chatter about running for Gov can carry on!

[Miles]

Even with the blowout tonight, I really don't think he wants to. It depends on how hard the party lobbies him.

[Miles]

The swing from '10-'14 with the Landrieu vs. non-Landrieu vote. Though the margin was similar, the precinct swings were much more volatile than I was expecting and very much along racial lines. Landrieu improved in the wealthier Uptown section (southwest) and Lakeview (my stompin' grounds) in the west. Landrieu slumped in the rest of the city, which is much blacker.

Turnout was down about 5% from 2010.

[Miles]

Well, they're projecting it will be 65%. The SoS site mist be running slow.

Good; the chatter about running for Gov can carry on!

Good, its not just me. I was going by the SoS site and Rogue had already said on anther thread that it was called. Apparently some outlets made an official projection 35 minutes before the SoS site even posted the early votes.

[Miles]

I've been sitting on these for a while; time to get them out!

These were the two competitive statewide races of 2011 by CD. Both were R-on-R and got very bitter.

LG



Ironically, I'll likely be supporting Dardenne for Gov and Nungesser for LG next year. Vitter endorsed Nungesser, but I think it was more of a strategic move than anything else. If Dardenne lost his seat in 2011, he would be much less viable for Governor in 2015.

SoS



I wanted to see the CD breakdown of this race because it was hard to see how Schedler managed to win with that map. Tucker got Vitter's endorsement has he ran on Schedler not being fiscally conservative enough.

[Miles]

The Hayride, despite discounting his achievements, makes the case for Mitch to run for Gov:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

He has $900K left over in his campaign (and is obviously term-limited).

[Miles]

Awesome. Dardenne would start out about even with Vitter in the fundraising game. He has $1.2 million CoH.

[Miles]

Frankly, I don't see him winning the governor mansion.

Why?

[Miles]

dingoje, nah I haven't seen that. I always liked Georges. Yeah, good point about the African Americans.

[Miles]

Landrieu won't run for the governorship, so the Louisiana Democrats will have to pick an unknown person.

Can you please stop making these definitive single-sentence predictions that lack analysis/evidence? It doesn't add anything to the discussion and makes you look like a hack.

[Miles]

Frankly, I don't see him winning the governor mansion.

Why?

Republicanization, and it will still be Obama. Dardenne is too moderate for losing against Landrieu, and Vitter, despite being extremely conservative and personnally a moron, but (except the prostitute), he has always avoided controversy (for instance he voted for the flood insurance). So Vitter is too skilled.

Honestly, Landrieu should seek the 2016 senate seat: if dardenn wins, this will be open.

Oh, I thought you were talking about Dardenne not winning.

If Dadrenne wins, Vitter would still be Senator and may go for another term.

[Miles]

I thought he supported two term limits...

He's sponsored legislation for it, but never actually come out and limited himself.

[Miles]

PPP will likely have a poll out for the Gov race this week.

For now they've leaked this bit:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

They've confirmed Jindal's slight rebound; he's almost as popular as Obama now!

[Miles]

John Bel Edwards is looking like a good candidate with $550K raised.

On the downside, for "Dadrenne Democrats" like me, that might not be so good:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Miles]

Jindal is also down to 35/53.

40% of Democrats are undecided and 39% of Independents; the bulk of them will go to Dardenne over Vitter.

[Miles]

Vitter's been busy making his pitch to voters in Acadiana.

Vitter's faction in the legislature, the 'fiscal hawks,' are not very happy about Jindal's budget. Jindal has used one-time funds and surpluses to plug some fiscal gaps; as usual, they don't like his use of such quick fixes.

Interview with John Bel Edwards. He touts bipartisanship. I'll probably start referring to him has JBE, as to avoid confusion with another Democratic Edwards in LA.

Apparently Dardenne supporters took issue with the PPP poll because it mislabeled Vitter:



Vitter was still winning Republicans 61-23 so I doubt it made much of a difference.

[Miles]

He's been rumored to be thinking about this race for a while but General Russell Honore may run. He's bets known for helping organize the relief efforts in New Orleans immediately after Katrina and is generally still popular. I'm not sure which party he'd run as, if he doesn't run as an independent.

When can we expect to see TV ads from Vitter, Dardene and JBE ?

Idk, probably late this year.

[Miles]

Wow, good to hear about Guillory.

Do you think Holden can actually win a runoff against either of them though? I'm not sure.

[Miles]

Why don't you like Nungesser? I like him, especially over Guillory.