I was going to post this soon anyway, but I'll post it now since tmthforu also gave us his ratings.
30%- Slight
40%- Lean
60%- Likely
90%- Safe
Lime- Pure Tossup
Open Seats:AZ- Given the state's lean, I'll give Flake a leg up and I'm expecting him to win. Still, assuming Giffords doesn't run, Goddard also posts some promising numbers.
CT- Shays could make this somewhat of a race, but he'll probably have a bloody primary with McMahon.
HI- Lingle couldn't even crack 40% in the last PPP poll there. Her favorables have gone down considerably and he'd be running in a super-blue state in a Presidential year. Good luck! I'm pulling for Hirono in the primary. Not quite Safe yet, but still very, very likely D.
NM- Interesting primaries on both sides. The Democrats still have an advantage. This wouldn't be a Senate-flipping seat for Republicans, it would be the icing on the cake for them if they have a good night.
ND- Kent Conrad is the Evan Bayh of 2012. This would be a better pickup for the GOP than NE.
TX- I expect the GOP's 16-year statewide streak to continue.
VA- This is like WA 2010; everyone knows the candidates and already has opinions of both. This will come down to how well the individual campaigns are run.
WI- Without Feingold, I'm giving the GOP an advantage by a hair. Kind would be the best Democrat in my mind, he'd just need to boost his name recognition; I've always said that Baldwin is too liberal/polarizing to win statewide.
Incumbents
Democrats:CA: Feinstein is a fixture in the Senate. She may post subpar approvals, but she stomps any actual Republican.
DE- Carper isn't going anywhere.
FL- Nelson's "vulnerability" is overrated. The only reason his approval is fairly poor (about 38/31 last I checked) is that Dems are pretty lukewarm on him. They'll end up voting for him anayway.
MD- See DE.
MI- Even if Hoekstra got the nomination, he's start our trailing by about 8.
MN- Incumbents with a 61/28 approval rating don't lose.
MO- While Clarie's numbers have remained fairly consistent, the GOP trend in MO is working against here. If the GOP nominates Steelman, this moves to Slight D; if its Aiken, it satys a tossup.
MT- This is the seat most likely to flip control of the Senate. Rehberg has always won his House seat with 60% or better, but he's never had a good opponent. Tester still has a very good approval 51/39. Still, a primary challenge from the DailyKos could seriously cripple him. The candidates will probably bw within a few points of each other up until election day.
NE- Eh, Nelson. It will be amazing if he pulls this out. Bruning is gaffe-prone though and Nelson still leads lesser-known opponents.
NJ- Menendez has never been particularly well, but Republicans would be better off using their resources elsewhere.
NY- Gillibrand is among the most popular Senators.
OH- Brown is doing well in the polls from now, but that may be derived from a combination of anti-Kasich sentiment and low-profile opponents. I expect this race to become tighter as we approach election day.
PA- Like Sherrod Brown, Bob Casey could only sit back helplessly as his state moved sharply towards the GOP last year. However, the 2012 environment will not be as hostile towards Democrats and the Casey name is still golden.
RI- Though Whitehouse had surprisingly weak approvals (49/38), but this is RI.
VT- See MN. Incumbents with a 67/28 approval don't lose elections. 25% of Republicans even approve of Sanders.
WA- Patty Murray got over 52% in a horrible year for Democrats. With a better atmosphere, a weaker opponent, and better approvals, Cantwell is a solid favorite.
WV- With district basically unchanged, Capito should be content with running for her House seat again. She'd be the only Republican who would come within 10 points of Manchin.
Republicans: IN: I'm expecting Lugar to pull through in the primary and he'll subsequently be a strong favorite. Even though Joe Donnelly is a top-tier recruit for Democrats, he'd still be the underdog even against Mourdock.
ME- Snowe is unstoppable. Even as an Independent, PPP has here getting over 50%.
MA- Brown is the favorite for now. I just chipped in a few $$ to the PCCC to draft Elizabeth Warren, so I
do have a dog in this race.
MS- Even Democrats narrowly approve of Wicker.
NV- Though Heller has won in all of PPP's polls, he has a few key things working against him. First, his approvals have eroded since his move to the Senate. Second, Reid's powerful machine is now at work for Berkley. Third, Democrats have traditionally tended to underpoll in NV.
TN- Bredesen is the only Democrat who'd beat Corker. I'm npt expecting him to run. Still, a Corker primary challenge isn't out of the question.
UT- The outcome of this race will be heavily dependent on whether Matheson takes the plunge or not. If he runs, it moves to Tossup, otherwise, Likely/Safe R.
WY- Barrasso is about as safe as they get.
