Can Blanche Lincoln win? Or is she roadkill?

[Miles]

You're probably about the only person who thinks she can win, and you only think that because you are a hack who completely ignores polling.

I think she can win!

[Miles]

Poor Blanche. Timing is everything. Had her seat been up 2 years ago she might have won in a walk

If Landrieu did, Lincoln certainly would have. In fact, many thought she'd be untouchable in early 2009.

I agree with both of you.

I thought she was untouchable as well.

If Landrieu was up for election this year, she'd be just as dead as Lincoln.  Landreiu lucked out and got a Class II seat that was up in 2008. If Lincoln were up in 2008, she would have cruised to victory.
I wish Lincoln and Pryor could switch seats. Lincoln would have won in 2008 and Pryor could have made it through 2010.

[Miles]

She'll be lucky to break 35%

Blanche just 'broke' 39% in the last Ipsos poll.

She must have been really lucky!!

[Miles]

Mark Pryor would have won this year.

David Pryor was very popular.

Lincoln probably would have gone unopposed in 2008!!!!!!

[Miles]

You're probably about the only person who thinks she can win, and you only think that because you are a hack who completely ignores polling.

I think she can win!

Yes, your prediction map giving Blanche >90% of the vote would make that pretty clear.


Tmth, I agree with you, it's quite unfortunate that these hacks from the prediction map part of Atlas managed to find the forum.

AR was at D>90% because it was Blanche's birthday!!!!

[Miles]

Psychic Octopus-

Those two data sets were contaminated with methodologically unsound polls.

Yep. TalkBusiness is about as reliable as Rasmussen.

[Miles]

Psychic Octopus-

Those two data sets were contaminated with methodologically unsound polls.

Rasmussen is not "methodologically unsound," but in any case, take a look at the numbers. Lincoln is down big, has never once led, and the only way she could recover is if Boozman had a major scandal. And even then, I'd find it unlikely that she would win. If you don't like Rasmussen or TalkBusiness, take a look at PPP and the others.

Oh, and I prefer NiK.

We've had other reliable pollsters soince PPP looked at the race, like Ispos and MD.

and they both have Lincoln trailing by double digits...

but the trend is clearly in her favor...

Well, I take most polls into account, unlike you, and even if they were incorrect, there is no trend in her favor, since one poll does not a trend make. The last Mason Dixon had the same numbers, and the last TalkBusiness actually increased. Even so, with the national environment being the way it is, Lincoln's chances of returning to the Senate are incredibly slim.

But more importantly, why would you even want Lincoln to return to the Senate?

Because she has done very good work in the Senate. From derivative reform, to child nutrition,  to any number of other things.

I'm a progressive and even I'm impressed by Lincoln accomplishments.