Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Inmate Trump]

Expectation setting from McCarthy?

https://twitter.com/Olivia_Beavers/status/1455542966035140617

He's right though.  A close loss is a win for Republicans and signals big gains next year.  A win tonight signals even larger gains for them next year.

[Inmate Trump]

sToP tHe StEaL!

[Inmate Trump]

If McAuliffe loses, will Democrats storm the Capitol of Virginia with guns and zip ties, erecting a gallows outside, and try to overturn the results?


If something, God forbid, like that were to happen what can Republicans say? They wouldn’t be able to denounce it…

[Inmate Trump]

I’m trying to be hopeful that if Youngkin wins, it will signal that Republicans need to distance themselves from Trump to win.

[Inmate Trump]

I’m going to read Beloved by Toni Morrison.

[Inmate Trump]

Question for Republicans:

If Youngkin wins, why didn’t Democrats steal this election?

[Inmate Trump]

I turned off coverage to watch the World Series. Braves better win this!

[Inmate Trump]

The message from this election is that Republicans win more easily without Trump involving himself in their campaigns.

[Inmate Trump]

If Democrats stole 2020, why didn’t they steal 2021?

[Inmate Trump]

I'll say this - the margin is shrinking in a hurry and there's plenty of overall vote left.  Maybe it's not over after all, and then of course if there's 50-100K absentee votes out, who knows?

It’s over unfortunately.

[Inmate Trump]

Democrats are being punished for failing to deliver on some major promises.  After tonight they better get in line.  I highly doubt they will.

[Inmate Trump]

So how well are Republicans gonna fix the 2024 election result in Virginia?

[Inmate Trump]

Lessons from last night:

Republicans have a much easier time when Donald Trump does not involve himself in the campaign. Trump is a failed candidate in the suburbs around the country. Had he been involved with Youngkin's campaign, it likely could have made this an even closer election or a Democratic win. Republicans! Drop Trump! He already lost you the presidency, the House, and the Senate. Without him, you won Virginia and are close to winning New Jersey. He does you no favors. Drop him.

Democrats need to stop making everything about Trump and focus on real issues that people care about. Personally, I think Trump is the single greatest threat this nation has ever faced (including civil war, and world wars). Never before have we had a president attempt a coup, but Trump did. However, average voters have forgotten that because Democrats failed to make that case when they had the chance and it's too late to do it now. So the focus must shift to other issues.

[Inmate Trump]

Some of my disparate observations, analysis and other Monday-morning QB'ing:

1.  McAuliffe's strategy of running against "Trumpkin" was a bad bet.  Turns out voters aren't really animated by attacks on an ex-President.  Youngkin gained everywhere because he was the only candidate talking about the issues, McAuliffe was talking past voters trying to bring-up Trump at every possible moment.

2.  Independent of  McAuliffe's strategy, he is probably just a weak candidate in general.  Ultimate Beltway insider and has-been governor is not a compelling biography compared to the younger, outsider Youngkin. 

3.  Alternatively, Glenn Youngkin is pretty much the type of Republican nominee you would create in a lab.  Not having to run in and win a GOP primary was definitely a net positive for Youngkin in this race.     

4.  The polls were pretty accurate.  My worry that polls were herding towards Youngkin in the closing stretch doesn't appear to have materialized.  Then again, Virginia is a pretty easy state to poll (i.e., relatively few non-college Whites.)   

5.  The biggest loser of last night may very well be Donald Trump.  Republicans are looking over the results today and seeing a way to run and win while keeping Trump at arms' length.  GOP primary voters motivated by an "electability" criterion look to have a valid prototype in Glenn Youngkin, and I expect this angle will be the dominant one in conservative media going into next year. 

I'll leave it to the Democrat hacks on this site to hash out what the results ultimately mean about the battles being fought in their own party.  Regardless, I only see these results hardening Manchinema and AOC types alike on their BBB positions. 

I mostly agree, especially with 5.

I wonder, though, if Republicans will take this signal and run with it…and how much Trump will pushback and try to insert himself anyway.