Trump approval ratings thread 1.3

[Inmate Trump]

My current prediction:

https://www.270towin.com/maps/NlJBL

Just curious, but how close do you think the race in Texas might be?  Or at least, as things stand right now.

[Inmate Trump]

Here's a question: If (big if maybe) Mueller concludes the Russia probe and doesn't implicate trump or any other associates besides what is already snagged, what would happen to his ratings?

Media would probably characterize it as "a monkey off his back", but I don't think the russia stuff is a significant driver of disapproval.

Maybe a temporary 2 point swing.

This is probably about right, with "temporary" being the key word.  The bounce would last until the next time Trump said something stupid.

Yea, I agree.  I could see him getting to 55% in a Rasmussen poll though.

[Inmate Trump]

It's all about our religion and our family values.

He stands for us.

We are all sinners, and it's important to forgive.

All of this is fake news anyway.

Hillary has a kill list. #LockHerUp

Obama is a Muslim who was born in Kenya.

The Clintons have a sex ring under a pizza restaurant.

Killary's health is poor.

Trump that b*tch!

"Next time we may have to kill him!"  (It's okay, because The Trump said it was okay and He'll pay for our legal fees.)

We can say Merry Christmas again, thanks to President Trump.  Before, we were legally barred from saying it.  Thanks Obama and Killary.

[Inmate Trump]

Morning Consult 50-state approval tracker, March 1-31, 97,693 RV

https://morningconsult.com/2018/04/05/trumps-monthly-approval-rating-hits-record-low-in-march/

Overall: 41/54, which is a record low for this poll.

There is state-level data at https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/.  I know what pbrower2a will be doing today.

Some notable state results (comparison to January 2017 numbers):

AZ 48/49 (55/35)
CO 41/56 (45/44)
FL 48/48 (56/34)
IA 43/53 (49/40)
ME 42/54 (48/40)
MI 41/55 (48/40)
NH 43/54 (45/44)
NV 45/51 (49/39)
OH 46/50 (51/37)
PA 44/52 (49/39)
TX 50/46 (54/34)
VA 43/52 (49/41)
WI 42/54 (47/41)

I also find these states polls interesting....

IN 48/47 (55/33)
KS 48/47 (56/32)
UT 45/51 (58/31)

I don't think any of these three will flip in 2020, especially not Kansas or Utah...but it's still fun seeing him dip so low there.

[Inmate Trump]

The attack on Syria will hurt him even more. People are sick of years and years of endless wars.

He may get a short-lived bump as Americans rally behind the President whenever there is some international crisis. But let it start going bad (body bags in a murky situation) or have at best superficial effect, then the bump will fade.

As with other deeds of this terribly-flawed President I expect bad results even in diplomacy. I expect Vladimir Putin to call him on the carpet for this and that he will  whine like a puppy who just got a spanking for defecating on the kitchen floor

I really hope you're right in that his bump will be short-lived.

I don't know.  It's obvious that this is an attempt to detract from the Russia investigation.  He's even coordinated with Putin on the attack, as confirmed by Reuters and the AP.  I'm worried though that seeing American weapons being launched at an enemy nation, despite the reason (a distraction), will have Americans wanting to seem patriotic by backing the prez.

[Inmate Trump]

Serious question here.

Is it possible, that Trump does so much better in rural/suburban areas, that some polls, not all but some, can oversample the urban vote?

In other words, if I did a poll of 100 people in Ohio, but 75 out of 100 were in Cuyahoga County, you would get a dramatically less-favorable result for Trump than if I evenly polled throughout all the counties in the state.

Is that possibly a factor? I get the impression his approval rating is always slightly higher than the polls show. He polls very, very strangely.

I'm quite sure most or all pollsters don't just target specific counties or voters to get them a skewed result.  This is their profession, after all, and I highly doubt they're going to willingly suck that bad at their jobs.

[Inmate Trump]

I would say the GOP is still more the party of George W Bush than Trump (which is a good thing).

I disagree. They’ve morphed into something unrecognizable from what they used to be. They’ve sunk to a low never before seen in American politics. Anyone who would rather allow *Russia* to interfere in our elections than actually do something to thwart it is unpatriotic; therefore the GOP of today is unpatriotic.

[Inmate Trump]

You guys would rather bad things to happen to America if it meant his numbers would drop

I wouldn't.

I hope he succeeds at every turn.  I hope he'll be a good leader.

He hasn't been at all so far, but I've never stopped hoping for that since his election.

[Inmate Trump]

Reuters Poll Crosstab:

18-34 year olds-

Approve: 33% (-9)
Disapprove: 65% (+11)

SAD!

Snowflakes!

[Inmate Trump]

...but most Americans have been doing better in the past 2 years than they were before 2016. It's easy to see why GOP partisans are mostly sticking with the President when their pockets are fatter and the economy is improving. Many don't like some specific Trump action.... but the USA is doing better than it was before 2016.

Name something significant that Trump has done to contribute to the economy.  What specific action of meaningfulness has he done that suddenly changed the (already steadily growing) economy?  Really.  I'm very eager to read your response.

[Inmate Trump]

I wonder how much of the drop is just Gallup reverting back from an outlier.

The North Korea Trump scam probably gave him a temporary bump but Trump will never have a high approval rating. He's too disgusting for most of this country to fathom and he only caters to his rapidly dwindling base.

December 2017 36% approval
June 2018 44% approval

Where is the dwindle?

During the 1964 election....it is estimated that Goldwater won 80% of Nixon's 1960 Republican vote share. Same with Hoover in 1932. Trump is popular only among what's left of the GOP and that isn't enough for him to ever be generally popular or win re-election. Sooner or later demographics are destiny and Trump isnt doing anything to grow his decrepit base of pissed off white Boomers and dying Silents.

Obviously his approval rating has gone up as more Americans have gotten accustomed to having a buffoon in orange clown face as president but if the best you can do is 41% with one of the lowest unemployment rates in decades then may lawd jesus have mercy upon your soul.

Bad attitude to have when it comes to elections. Just some advice.

How is it a bad attitude?  Because it's logical and it means you'll be losing more and more in the future?

[Inmate Trump]

Twenty42 - I think there may be some validity to your theory, though I’d dispute/debate the size of such an effect. I’ve long felt that 2016 was a poisoned chalice and whoever won it would be a one-term POTUS.

I must admit...there were a couple fleeting moments where I considered voting for Hillary in 2016 in hopes of a Republican landslide in 2020. I came home in the end, of course.

Everything is an exercise in conjecture two years before the election, but I don't see Trump getting defeated in 2020 if the economy is good and we are at peace on the world stage. There is no reason to fire an incumbent when the two qualifications of a successful presidency are being fulfilled.

If I had known about Donald Trump otherwise being the Republican nominee in 2016, I would have voted for Romney in 2016.  We rarely think that far ahead, do we? Eight years of Mitt Romney is far better than the two decades (or so it now seems) of sociopathic leadership  that thinks a bare majority a pretext for turning America into a dictatorship.

The biggest qualification of a leader in any activity except a crime syndicate is to act with integrity, a commodity about as commonplace in this President as is as Element 119. You may not realize how dangerous this President is -- but aside from gangsters, the only analogues are tyrants.

This President undermines everything that our Founding Fathers stood for. God help us should we need a new bunch.

Agreed on all points.