Trump approval ratings thread 1.2

[Inmate Trump]

So far I see Donald Trump doing little that gets a President re-elected.   

Does he have to though?  His supporters are die-hard and they'll be showing up to vote no matter what; he could declare himself Jesus and emperor of the world, and they'd cheer him on; he could advocate the opening of extermination camps for all Muslims and they'd praise him for it.  If the other side fails again to get out the vote, I can see him squeaking to another victory simply on the backs of his deranged supporters who will be there rooting for him regardless of what he's done so far or what he will do.

[Inmate Trump]

Maybe both parties should have nominated non-pieces of sh*t?

One party did, but she had the impossible task of running against 20+ years of unfounded, illogical, and many times sexist propaganda.  Was Hillary perfect?  No.  Was she the best candidate?  Absolutely not, and she made many mistakes that led to her defeat.  But she wasn't, as you say, a piece of sh*t.  There is no politician in the US who does not have a checkered reputation or  questionable values and morals.  But she was vastly superior in every way to her opponent; from moral compass, to leadership ability, to intelligence, to composure, to grace, etc etc etc.  She was the only presidential candidate in the history of presidential candidates (non-incumbents) who was literally molded and ready for the job on day 1.

But instead we went with a near literal "piece of sh*t" who is not the master negotiator he claimed to be, nor was he ready or even really willing to take on the role of commander-in-chief.  Someone who quite possibly colluded with a foreign government to meddle in our election on his behalf.  The world's biggest hypocrite; the world's biggest narcissist; the world's greatest liar; and the world's best conman.

Say what you will about Hillary Clinton.  Hate her.  Hate the things that 20+ years of conservative lies tell you.  Even if you consider all of it as truth, she was still better than the utter garbage we elected.

[Inmate Trump]

Approval +7? That's pretty generous to Trump considering past occurrences.

In 2004 and 2012, the incumbent President got roughly 51% of the popular vote. Translating that to just the two-party vote, Obama got 52% in 2012 while Bush got around 51.5% in 2004.

In late october 2004, Bush's approval was 48%. In late october 2012, Obama's was 50-52%. Compare that with election day results, and Bush got around +3 from his approvals while Obama got jack squat. Thus we should take these approvals at face value for 2020 instead of giving Trump a bonus that previous Presidents running for re-election did not enjoy.

I agree that adding +7% is waaaay too generous, but I'm not so sure about going with face value on his approvals either.  I'd say it'd be fair (and cautious) to add 2-3%.

[Inmate Trump]

I approve of Trump more than ever in light of today's charges. We must work with Putin and his glorious Christian Tsardom to defend Christendom. Dig in. Fight back. God is on our side.

Is this a joke post?  I honestly can’t tell.  You can’t be both Christian and pro-Putin.

[Inmate Trump]

NBC/WSJ poll of 438 "Trump counties" that either flipped from D to R in 2016 or saw a significant surge to Trump.  Overall, he won these counties 57%-37%.

32% say the country is better off since Trump became President.  41% say it's worse off.

Trump's approval in these counties is 48/50.  In a similar poll in July, it was 50/46. 

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Other favorability ratings in these counties:

Barack Obama 48/37
Bernie Sanders 42/31
Hillary Clinton 23/60
Nancy Pelosi 16/44
Mitch McConnell 11/35

I'm surprised he hasn't dropped more in these counties.  Am I worrying over nothing?

[Inmate Trump]

Gallup, 12/1

Approve 33 (-1)
Disapprove 62 (+2)

This equals Trump's worst-ever numbers in Gallup on both ends. 

After being mostly stable for a few weeks, movement over the last few days has been very bad for Trump:

11/28: 38/55 (-17)
11/29: 36/57 (-21)
11/30: 34/60 (-26)
12/1: 33/62 (-29)

It's still a little too early to say whether this is a real trend.  Gallup uses a 3-day rolling average, so one or two very good or bad samples can have effects that last a few days.  If it still looks like this next week, then I'd be willing to call it a trend.

Oh well, I just like him because he speaks his mind.  And because, e-mails.  And those pesky Muslims, like Barack HUSSEIN Obama, who was born in Kenya.

[Inmate Trump]

Among Millennials

Approve: 19%
Disapprove: 74%
DK/NA: 7%

Wow! For Republicans this is almost as bad as a 'minority' vote. If it is well motivated to vote it is going to bring about Democratic wins in places in which such wins look unlikely. 

The GOP is finished

Conference committee announces excise tax on avocado toast

Wow! For Republicans this is almost as bad as a 'minority' vote. If it is well motivated to vote it is going to bring about Democratic wins in places in which such wins look unlikely. 

Yep, all of this.  But the GOP will just get Putin to help them out again...

[Inmate Trump]

15 points behind on the congressional ballot with Dems over 50%. RUH ROH.

Who could have foreseen getting in bed with someone like Trump would taint the party so badly?

With the fall of Alabama’s senate seat, and bad prospects overall in 2018 (along with Trump’s horrible numbers—almost in the 20s!!!), I wonder when the GOP will stop embracing Trump and start distancing themselves from him? I wonder if they’ll even do that. Doesn’t matter to me either way, I’m never going back to them (2016 is the first year I voted Democratic and vowed never to vote Republican again).

[Inmate Trump]

C-Pac Poll just released. Trump has a 93% approval among conservatives at C-Pac.

Good luck Kasich 2020.

Meaningless.