Manitoba Election 2023 - October 3rd

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Even if Kinew presently looks like a shoe-in, I'm bracing for the likelihood of a "shy Tory effect".  (Just "likelihood",  Not "inevitability".)

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We saw the PPC do fairly well in the Mennonite belt in the last federal election, winning several polls. I wonder if there will a far-right party put some resources there this time.

Even if Kinew presently looks like a shoe-in, I'm bracing for the likelihood of a "shy Tory effect".  (Just "likelihood",  Not "inevitability".)

Bradley effect maybe?

Anything is possible, but we had an election with Kinew as leader in 2019 and I don't recall any "Bradley effect" that time.

True, but there was a bit of a shy Tory effect. One wonders though it the kind of voters that Kinew needs to win are generally progressive, but might be uncomfortable with an Indigenous premier, or at least uncomfortable with someone that has Kinew's background.

Is 'Kinew's background' a euphemism for 'once faced domestic abuse allegations', or is everyone in Manitoba still too polite to bring that up?

It's more him being a Native.

Oh I'm sure that is very much a problem, but Hatman said 'or'.

In that light, I wouldn't be surprised if there's more danger of voter hesitancy now that he actually looks poised to be Premier--whereas in 2019, such expectations were scarce; with the party still licking the wounds of their 2016 defeat, voters were simply voting for a presumed Official Opposition...

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Would he be the first native premier of any province? I saw that Stephen Kakfwi was Premier of the Northwest Territories about 20 years back.

John Norquay (a Metis) was Manitoba Premier in 1878-87--and that's about it AFAIK.

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Also don't forget Brandon when it comes to competitive spots outside of Winnipeg & the North.

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Also don't forget Brandon when it comes to competitive spots outside of Winnipeg & the North.

Brandon East could go NDP, but Brandon West is a real stretch.

Depends on the scale of NDP success, of course.

Generally speaking, Brandon is the Lethbridge of Manitoba.

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Winnipeg is 55% if you take city itself.  61% is CMA, but surrounding areas are more like donut around Edmonton which went UCP despite poor showing in city as a lot more rural than say 905 belt or Lower Mainland suburbs.  Surrounding areas more exurban than suburban and parties in right are struggling in suburbs but holding up in exurbs.

I'm not so sure about that. Winnipeg is more like Calgary in that virtually all of the CMA is within the city limits. There really isn't much of the Winnipeg CMA that is in that so-called donut - only three ridings are arguably exurban Winnipeg - Springfield-Richot, Red River North and Selkirk and that's
about it - compared to 32 ridings that are in Winnipeg proper.

Yeah, we're talking more about the equivalent of Strathmore or Okotoks here.  Though the NDP has some enduring claim of ancestrality around Selkirk--but otherwise, this is territory that's at most "nice to have", but hasn't been cornerstone to the NDP coalition since the Schreyer/Pawley era, and Doer proved one could win without it (Selkirk somewhat excepted).

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Liberals manage 49 candidates, 8 short of a full slate

Some notable competitive ridings here; Selkirk and Dauphin, but also Brandon West and Red River North.

I made a mistake earlier. When somebody corrects me on a mistake I give that post a recommendation, however, unfortunately nobody corrected me here.

I had said that 1981 was the last time the Liberals did not run a full slate. The Liberals somehow did not run a full slate in 2016 despite polling that sometimes had them ahead of the NDP. Their leader in 2016 was an absolute disaster.

Anyway, this is an article on the potential consequences of the Liberals failure to run a full slate: https://winnipeg.ctvnews.ca/what-fewer-liberal-candidates-could-mean-for-the-upcoming-provincial-election-1.6560691

They also didn't run a full slate in 1999, the first under Jon Gerrard's leadership.  (For some reason, I thought there were others besides '99 and '16)

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When Wab introduced himself like "How do you do, I'm Wab kinew" I laughed! if that's not a quintessentially Canadian Folksy Dad intro I don't know what is. I could feel his boys cringe at that

Nice to see he's still using that disarming catchphrase (it was his trademark in 2019 as well)

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And the PCs are bringing up cost as part of the reason it's a pretty good argument too regarding the NDPs lack of fiscal responsibility if they're willing to waste money like this.

So sort of like a "principled left/woke" version of "Build The Wall".

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Keep in mind that the Greens are only running candidates in 7 out of 57 ridings - so their vote was always going to evaporate.

The Manitoba Liberals just don't have any raison d'etre. They don't have a full slate of candidates. Their leader is very uninspiring and as a "centrist" party they don't really own any issue. Why would anyone vote for them when they can vote NDP?

The "why" is all in the seats they presently hold: (1) leadership, (2) ex-leadership + baked-in last-red-spot-on-the-map "tradition"/inertia, (3) the name "Lamoureux".

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As an aside, I find that election-atlas.ca is giving me "these basemap tiles will no longer be available as of October 31, 2023".  Hope that's addressed once the mod logs in the Manitoba election numbers...

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It's early, but the Libs are behind in all their seats.

Actually, no, as there is no result yet in one of them.

And Cindy L. is ahead in her seat--she might wind up sole survivor.

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Marginal stat I find noteworthy: that the Keystone Party outpolled the Greens.  (Yeah, I know the Greens only had a handful of candidates, but...)