2021 Canadian general election - Election Day and Results

[adma]

There is no future for the NDP if it can't threaten the Libs, so that prompts serious questions beyond that of leadership.

One might argue that the Libs' ability to suppress the NDP vote is a response to a perceived threat.  And sure, three consecutive lost supermarginals in Davenport; but, a supermarginal is a supermarginal.  One might say that the NDP "keeps the Libs limber" so to speak--they're purposeful through the veil of their apparent uselessness.  

In fact, *all* of the parties keep one another limber--and that includes the Greens and PPC.  Even their losing tallies, and the way they shake up, riding by riding, polling station by polling station,  offer insight and lessons to the rest, even if there's only 2 parties that are realistically contending for governent.

Whereas a strict US-style binary 51-49 race might be *superficially* interesting because of how tight it is; but it can be boring in how dumb and "un-limber" it is.  Rifling through precinct results where there are only 2 parties to speak of is flabby and dull as dishwater...

[adma]

You talk about a network of routes between Point A and Point B; what is Point B for the NDP? How exactly are their current leader and electoral strategy advancing them toward it? It doesn't appear to be by winning votes. If the election was a success because all the NDP candidates got valuable experience running an election campaign, well, the NDP runs a full slate at every election. By that standard, every election is a success for the NDP because it participates so fully in the democratic process. Maybe that's the purpose of the NDP, but I'd like to think there's something more. There certainly seemed to be something more when Jack Layton was leader.

However, would you say that about Jack Layton had 2011 not happened?  After all, it caught even *them* unaware--behind Jack's bold talk, they were preparing for the same old incremental gains.

And re the "what is Point B" question: besides the "network of routes" argument, let's also look at a "network of purposes" argument, and also beyond the notion that everything *between* that Point A and Point B is a void, a no-man's land, something that's only there to be traversed.  Or even the macro-vs-micro subtleties behind what Point B is.

So, in the case of a mythological "Mother Road" like Route 66, one might argue that if Chicago is Point A, Santa Monica is Point B.  And even if one doesn't make that full traverse, one who's aware of that mythology knows *of* the Point B in question, which lends a "meaningful" quality to traversing segments of the route, including those that have been bypassed by the Interstate and presently serve as little more than local roads.

Or because we're talking about Canada...well, the Trans-Canada.  Again, one is not bound to the full Newfoundland-to-BC traverse--and heck, one isn't even bound to the strict present-day routing, even if one is *aware* of its nearby presence.  Like, driving through the centres of various bypassed towns, or opting for the "old route" of 1A over the present-day T-C btw/Calgary & Banff--or simply the awareness that one *could* do so--can make things more enriching.  (Or conversely, actually *opting* for the Trans-Canada btw/Kamloops and Hope, as opposed to the faster-and-more-boring Coquihalla.)  And all along, one knows that the Trans-Canada is *there*, as a symbolic bond.

So rather than asking "what is Point B?", don't look at it in strict dumb "GPS coordinate and Siri guiding you along a designated route" terms.

Though I will say this about the US electoral system: psephologically speaking, it often works out more "interestingly" in a Canadian fashion at a party-primary level.  (By comparison, Canada doesn't have primaries--candidates are chosen by local committees or by party central.)

[adma]

Those first two in 2015 were the first Liberal seats in Calgary since 1968. Obviously, it's clear that Alberta was seething in 2019 and took their rage out accordingly. I'm assuming the Liberals won Calgary Skyview because of it's large minority/Asian population. I couldn't find any data, but I'm guessing that's what also swung Calgary Forest Lawn so much as well. What's the reason the Liberals couldn't get a foothold back in Calgary Centre?

Lack of supertargeting infrastructure this time; plus, lack of the same demographic mix.  *And*, lack of a PPC candidate to split the vote.

Edmonton-Mill Woods, of course, benefited from those same Lib-favouring demographics.

[adma]

Ultimately O'Toole's problem is that, much like Singh in 2019, he only grounds on which he can really credibly stay on for another election is by pointing to the CPC's terrible pre-campaign polling and saying 'look, I dug us out of the hole' - which does raise the question of why the party was in such a hole when he was running it in the first place. And, unlike in the NDP, we can be certain someone will ask that question.

This is regrettable because everyone waiting in the wings to succeed O'Toole appears to be a lunatic of some sort, and because his friend-to-all-humans snake-oil salesman act was hilarious and I'd have liked to see more of it.

One must say that there's been a particularly strong and vicious pattern over the years of the Conservatives "asking that question", or something similar re its leadership, which perhaps comes w/the taste of power--think of the psychodrama attached to Dief in the 60s, or Joe Clark in the 80s, or Stockwell Day this century.  While the only *real* time that's happened w/the NDP is w/Mulcair--the only leader with which they *entered* an election tasting power, and lost a significant quotient of seats in the bargain...

[adma]

I really don't think that these Edmonton results are good news for the Liberals at all. Centre and Mill Woods were the two ridings in the city that the Liberals targeted (naturally, since those were the two they won in 2015) and they made a serious effort in both of them. In neither riding did they meaningfully improve their own share of the vote; for all the work that the Liberal campaign put in, both ridings experienced a straight CPC to NDP swing. In Centre the drop in the Conservative vote was enough to deliver the seat to the Liberals, but voters clearly did not believe that the Liberals were the only non-Conservative option, and come next election Randy Boissonnault will have to defend his seat from both ends. In Mill Woods the NDP candidate did not do nearly as well, but as a result the Conservative vote failed to drop far enough for the Liberal candidate to pick up the seat. Again, this is not a result that is suggestive of any real Liberal strength.

The provincial NDP was much more active in this campaign than in past federal election campaigns, and it seems that at least in Edmonton it hurt federal Liberals that the Alberta Liberal Party is now truly dead. Alberta has never really had a New Democratic tradition, but maybe now one is being invented.

And Boissonnault's performance, coupled with the strong NDP third place and their results in the rest of Edmonton, does not really suggest a seat that would have gone Liberal in the absence of a candidate who was already a relatively recognisable face in the area.

Actually, one might argue that in the 1980s, Alberta had the federal rudiments of a "New Democratic tradition", in that echoing much of the West in those years the NDP served as the primary ballot-box opposition (even if it was only good for a single-term seat in 1988).

Plus re Edmonton Centre, given said strong NDP 3rd place, there's a reasonable likelihood that the Boissonnault vote would have shifted in *that* direction in his absence.  So it's not like it would have stayed within the Conservative fold w/o Boissonnault...

[adma]

If you voted or had a vote in Tom Mulcair's leadership review, did you vote in favor of Mulcair or against?

The whole "trying to dodge this discussion" I get it, but the party forcibly threw out their leader for a poor election result 5 years ago and you're now attempting to make the case "election results don't matter" for a guy that could easily be given a pass for a poor result in 2019, but not making any headway at all the 2nd time around. Uh yeah, the party voted at convention election results did matter ousting Mulcair. That's recent history by Canadian political standards. Even if it was just an excuse because some party members didn't like the rightward turn of the party, that was still the excuse.

If the NDP wants to keep him because they like him, fine, it's their party, but $20 says they don't win more than 40 seats next federal election.

And...big effing deal if they don't win more than 40 seats and don't match Mulcair in '15.  Under the circumstance, it's better to have good morale than to make it all about pumping steroids into the seat count.  Of course, they *could* get more than 40 seats; but much as in 2011, that might involve a broader tableau, stumbles by the opposition, etc to seal the deal.  Election outcomes and seat counts aren't just a one-party show.

You want to know about Point A to Point B?  Victory isn't Point B; it's only the "ideal" outcome thereof.  *Election Day* is Point B.  Much as when it comes to the Boston Marathon, the race to the finish line isn't simply about the race to be the *first person across* the finish line.  Or, a song that only reaches #18 on the Hot 100 isn't a "failure" simply because it didn't reach #1.  There's always a nuance to the narrative, which is why it pays to know the "many routes" to Point B, or the side routes, or the interplay among the parties involved.  Under that circumstance, to be puzzled by why Mulcair was deemed an expendable failure and Jagmeet's not is like being puzzled by why one would waste 2 hours on back roads getting to Point B rather than taking half that time by Interstate.  So stop being that bored kid in the back seat saying "are we there yet" because you just want to go to Mount Splashmore and that's it.

[adma]

If the Conservative grassroots turf O'Toole and elect Poilievre as leader, and assuming that Freeland replaces Trudeau as Liberal leader, then the next election will become a repeat of the US election from 2016. 😱

I don't think a ton of Canadians and even a bunch of Liberals have hated Chrystia Freeland for more than 20 years.

Still, she oozes "Laurentian Elite", and the Cons would have a field day with that.

Though the *real* 2016 analogy would be if they elected *Maxime Bernier* as leader.

[adma]

If the Conservative grassroots turf O'Toole and elect Poilievre as leader, and assuming that Freeland replaces Trudeau as Liberal leader, then the next election will become a repeat of the US election from 2016. 😱

I don't think a ton of Canadians and even a bunch of Liberals have hated Chrystia Freeland for more than 20 years.

Still, she oozes "Laurentian Elite", and the Cons would have a field day with that.

As opposed to the son of Pierre Trudeau, who does no such thing?

Actually, Justin's electoral saving grace is that he comes across as just the right bit of touchy-feely and light-in-the-loafers--that is, flaky-relatable enough to counteract the Laurentian-Elite stigma.  Or as some people say, his mother's son even more than his father's son.  (Of course, it's those same qualities that fuel Conservative social media's high-minded knocks against him.)  Chrystia, by comparison, is *ultra*-Laurentian: the affluent learned elite class--a haughtier proposition, and a harder sell in the heartland.  Like Iggy without the fatal "just visiting" stigma.

In a way, Chrystia would be to Justin what Hillary is to Bill.

[adma]

Although, Freeland is a native of Peace River Country in Alberta. If she pulls an Elizabeth Warren and emphasizes her hardscrabble heartland upbringing, it could help to counter her Laurentian elite image.

Being Arkansas' First Lady didn't help Hillary.

[adma]

Sorry, but this is a load of crap. Maybe it’s unrealistic, but I want to feel like it’s possible to have an NDP government. Actually, I want an NDP government. It felt possible under Layton. It felt possible under Mulcair. It’s a laughable joke under Singh because we’ve now had two elections in a row with the NDP only netting ~25 seats.

Actually, upon reflection, I wonder if the utter stasis and lack of seat churn this election might be a net leadership saving grace for all parties involved--that is, the consensus being that this election's been so utterly unnecessary, any underperformance-relative-to-expectations is rendered redundant (except maybe for Annamie Paul; but the fix was already there).

As for the NDP; while I'm supportive of the idea of such a government, I'm not so hyper-invested in the notion as to set myself up for sore disappointment; because even within the disappointment, one can sense the rudiments of a potential "fix", and it's not *all* simply a matter of "bad leadership".  (Look; it was even possible to discern such rudiments under Alexa McDonough, even though she herself hadn't a hope in blazes of ascending to Layton/Mulcair contention.) And which is also where looking at and examining the *full* results, without prejudice, is useful--including those of the other parties, PPC not excluded.  It might act as guidelines to future points of attack--or simply to comprehending the depths of the political landscape.  (Like, Avi Lewis might have finished a "disappointing" 3rd in West Van et al, yet he still performed respectably and beyond expectations in what many eye-rolled as a "no-hope" riding--to the point where I'd really like to see the poll-by-polls, and discern how well he did in places like West Van proper, particularly the central part.  Because I think he was "on to something", and there are lessons for the future there.)

This is a tool that mitigates many a disappointing/heartbreaking/anticlimactic result, particularly if one has a good sense of geography and "lay of the land".

http://www.election-atlas.ca/fed/

[adma]

An example of "Americanization" of voting patterns:  York Centre (Russian/Orthodox Jewish) and Etobicoke Centre (white Catholic ethnic) were the top ridings for Conservative and combined CPC+PPC vote share in Toronto.

Meanwhile, the "uniquely Canadian" Chinese CPC vote evaporated.

Etobicoke Centre & Etobicoke-Lakeshore are weird ones--a greater-than-usual 416 Lib share slide and CPC share rise in both.  And it couldn't just be a "Ford Nation" thing...or could it?  (Yet there wasn't such a dramatic swing in Doug Ford's Etobicoke North.)

Also, Maurice Cormier in Etobicoke Centre getting by far the best PPC result in the 416--what's up with that?  (Though I notice that *both* 416 ridings where PPC got over 5%--this, and Don Valley East--are ridings where the Greens weren't running.)

[adma]

If you voted or had a vote in Tom Mulcair's leadership review, did you vote in favor of Mulcair or against?

The whole "trying to dodge this discussion" I get it, but the party forcibly threw out their leader for a poor election result 5 years ago and you're now attempting to make the case "election results don't matter" for a guy that could easily be given a pass for a poor result in 2019, but not making any headway at all the 2nd time around. Uh yeah, the party voted at convention election results did matter ousting Mulcair. That's recent history by Canadian political standards. Even if it was just an excuse because some party members didn't like the rightward turn of the party, that was still the excuse.

If the NDP wants to keep him because they like him, fine, it's their party, but $20 says they don't win more than 40 seats next federal election.

And...big effing deal if they don't win more than 40 seats and don't match Mulcair in '15.  Under the circumstance, it's better to have good morale than to make it all about pumping steroids into the seat count.  Of course, they *could* get more than 40 seats; but much as in 2011, that might involve a broader tableau, stumbles by the opposition, etc to seal the deal.  Election outcomes and seat counts aren't just a one-party show.

You want to know about Point A to Point B?  Victory isn't Point B; it's only the "ideal" outcome thereof.  *Election Day* is Point B.  Much as when it comes to the Boston Marathon, the race to the finish line isn't simply about the race to be the *first person across* the finish line.  Or, a song that only reaches #18 on the Hot 100 isn't a "failure" simply because it didn't reach #1.  There's always a nuance to the narrative, which is why it pays to know the "many routes" to Point B, or the side routes, or the interplay among the parties involved.  Under that circumstance, to be puzzled by why Mulcair was deemed an expendable failure and Jagmeet's not is like being puzzled by why one would waste 2 hours on back roads getting to Point B rather than taking half that time by Interstate.  So stop being that bored kid in the back seat saying "are we there yet" because you just want to go to Mount Splashmore and that's it.

I have no idea what any of this means but I'm just hoping the NDP isn't listening to you.

Actually, one problem with 2011 is that it played out *too* much like Uncle Jack taking the kids on a quick surprise first-time trip to Mount Splashmore, where *he* might have known the highways and byways and sights and sounds going there, but the *kids* didn't because they were too busy with their phones and games and horseplay in the back seat.  And then Uncle Jack died, and the kids have no clue *how* to go there again (much less that there'd be anything else on the way), all they know is that Mount Splashmore was giddy and fun and they wanna go there again.

2011 was a rush.  However, the potential quicksand that was all built upon should have been evident from the start.  Jack might have been able to contain that quicksand, or at least a good deal of it, much like Rachel Notley in 2019 (which she lost, but not to the degree that she became terminally out of the picture a la Socred post-1971).  Mulcair wasn't.  Once the NDP's knocked off a giddy perch back to a "natural condition" distant third after a single term in government (or, in this case, after "owning" Official Opposition), it becomes *very* hard to claw back to contention, and they might--like Ontario after Bob Rae, or Nova Scotia after Darrell Dexter--have to settle for muddling around that distant-third status for a spell until "opportunity knocks".  So at that point, they have to accept the fact that they're a third party w/all the roadblocks in place courtesy of the "top two", and they have to manage that, diligently, incrementally, in a way that both accepts that condition yet "sees beyond".  Sort of like, Uncle Jack isn't around anymore to take you to Mount Splashmore; so it's up to you to "trace his path" and do so by studying maps and discerning routings, figuring out *where* Mount Splashmore is, its context and the "contexts" along the way.  *Not* by dumbly programming a destination into a GPS.  And don't just expect Uncle Jagmeet to be like Uncle Jack; remember, once you know your roads, you're guiding *him* just as much as he's taking *you*.  Might be some initial disappointment due to lack of means or those nasty Liberals and Conservatives ahead of you in line at Mount Splashmore--but at least it was a fulfilling trip *to* there...

[adma]

Although, Freeland is a native of Peace River Country in Alberta. If she pulls an Elizabeth Warren and emphasizes her hardscrabble heartland upbringing, it could help to counter her Laurentian elite image.

Well I'm not sure she really wants to go the Warren route. Warren never really pulled off her "I'm just a gal from the heartland" act in the sense that her base was cripplingly confined to wonky urban liberals.

Freeland isn't going to be some prairie populist darling who suddenly starts winning seats in Alberta. Despite her being from the province, she's spent much of her adult life in Europe, and when she came back to Canada, Toronto. Albertans might not hate her as much as Trudeau, but she's inextricably tied to his brand. I also don't think she can counter her Laurentian Elite image by emphasizing her prairie upbringing because what we've seen of her, at least publicly, is only slightly less Laurentian than Justin Trudeau, a man who couldn't be more of a Laurentian Elite if he put on a top hat and started going by "J.P. Trudeau".

That said, I do think Freeland has more personal appeal broadly than Trudeau because she's seen as being more competent. I don't think people who hate the "Liberal elite" are really in play for the LPC, so it's probably not worth worrying about, but people who find Trudeau vapid might find more appeal in her. Her struggle compared to Trudeau might be Quebec because of her relatively weak French and lack of connection to the province.

Frankly, I get negligible "Alberta girl" vibe from her--at least, as something that the Libs would massively exploit.  Or it could just as well be in conjunction with her NDP family background (and maybe the "more competent" could be used to portray her as Rachel Notley-esque--and providentially enough, Halyna Freeland was the federal NDP candidate in Rachel's Strathcona in '88).

And when it comes to "Laurentian Elite-ness" vs Justin; well, I'd say Chrystia comes across as even *more* so, because while Justin is definitely Laurentian, he *doesn't* project as terribly "Elite" except as a silver-spoon beneficiary of the same.  True Laurentian Elite-ness is heavyweight; Justin's a lightweight...

[adma]

Etobicoke Centre & Etobicoke-Lakeshore are weird ones--a greater-than-usual 416 Lib share slide and CPC share rise in both.  And it couldn't just be a "Ford Nation" thing...or could it?  (Yet there wasn't such a dramatic swing in Doug Ford's Etobicoke North.)

Also, Maurice Cormier in Etobicoke Centre getting by far the best PPC result in the 416--what's up with that?  (Though I notice that *both* 416 ridings where PPC got over 5%--this, and Don Valley East--are ridings where the Greens weren't running.)

Establishmentarian Kingsway is in Lakeshore no?  Etobicoke Centre has some wealth too but it's newer and more "Catholic ethnic."  Doug Ford's home Census Tract is 23% Italian ancestry.

I think a lot of the more pertinent "Catholic ethnic" in the case of those Etobicoke ridings might be Eastern European than Italian.  (But when it comes to Italo-Catholic, the fact that King-Vaughan flipped the other way from AORRH and Vaughan-Woodbridge turned out to be a tighter race than Richmond Hill or even Markham-Unionville is indicative.)

[adma]

Hamilton Mountain - The NDP nominated quite frankly a terrible candidate for the seat, a former MP who is NOT from Hamilton. I really don't know what their thinking was here, it wasn't even a contested nomination. The LPC has been nipping at the NDP here since 2015 at least, polling over 30% so the riding association failed here. BUT Hamilton, for the lack of a better word, has been "Torontoising" for the last decade at least. Cheaper housing, and proximity to TO has attracted many young urban swing progressives from Toronto, particularly those starting families. Housing is like half the cost here (or was). So you can see Hamilton Mountain and Hamilton East-Stoney Creek (to a lesser extent since it is already more LPC friendly due to Stoney Creek) are more susceptible to ABC-but-really-vote-Liberal strategic voting.

Well, it's difficult to say there, because the heart of "young urban swing progressivism", Hamilton Centre, is digging into the NDP under Matthew Green rather than swinging away.  In fact, when all is said and done, the Mountain really has more in common with HESC than it does with HC--that is, it's primarily postwar suburban, like a non-ethnoburban Scarborough, perhaps.  And that might offer clues to its Lib-amenability.

And HESC is interesting in a *different* way, and perhaps more ominously: the NDP, which many claimed was poised to reclaim the seat, finished 3rd (and with the same candidate as in 2019, so no Malcolm Allen parachute alibi here), and in fact CPC was the only party of the big 3 to gain share over '19.  So, a dynamic that's less GTA-Liberalizing than SW Ontario-Conservatizing (though Cons + PPC still fell just short of overtaking the Libs); or else maybe the rewards of O'Toole's "blue collar strategy" being reaped in Hamilton East environs.

Toronto: ugh, my city... The NDP is up in Davenport by 2% and 8% in Parkdale-High Park, and so close in my Spadina-Fort York (we know that's situational) The Indi MP is getting massive amounts of negative press, even Adam Vaughan has come out against him so... there may be a by-election fairly soon (and I hope!). But also up in Toronto Centre by 4%, and Danforth is back to pre-Layton 33-34% (sad, only a "star" candidate can really win this back, maybe). But it's the strategic voting, its the meh-LPC are doing ok, it's the Ya-ill-vote-NDP-but-then-I-change-my-mind-voter. It's hard to say what will help, policy maybe but the LPC eventually gets around to stealing it and, surprise most voters don't care and praise the LPC for it. Better ground game, sure always helps, but the wall of LPC-strategic voting is very strong and very high.

Of course, it's not necessarily just star candidates that can win the T-D's back, but a more "macro" form of Liberal stumbling.  Because there's no guarantee that LPC will *always* be deemed "doing OK".

And as for Spadina-Fort York's heartbreak, what nobody's really hit upon is that even if Vuong still got too many votes and too high a share in the end, it is, sadly, not exactly a Davenport-style "binary progressive" riding (notwithstanding '18's provincial result).  That is, the downtown condos work in a False Creek or Coal Harbour way and aren't necessarily guaranteed to default NDP in the face of a disgraced Liberal candidate (in fact in '19, less than 2.5 points separated NDP from CPC--had Jagmeet not caught fire, the *latter* might have been 2nd).  And of course, who knows how many of those condo-dwellers are slick-yuppie Bay Street Liberals who stuck to party label and figured that sexual assault charges are no big deal, it'll all blow over soon enough...

[adma]

9.  In Ontario, where splits most problematic (after all CPC + PPC got more votes than LPC in the province and combined right cracked 40% mark, which is actually pretty good for the right there), PPC was strongest in Southwestern Ontario and Northern Ontario.  Former is a Tory stronghold, but latter is not.  More importantly PPC did not do well in GTA which cost Tories election, but didn't either in Eastern Ontario outside Ottawa and Central Ontario where Tories did well.  It seems PPC support was strongest in areas that have struggled most with deindustrialization (shades of Brexit or Trump) and biggest correlation in Ontario was PPC strongest in areas that have seen biggest economic decline irrespective of whether they were right or left leaning areas.  Otherwise appealed to disillusioned angry voters.

Northern Ontario's actually an interesting case, and rudiments of this "swing to the right" were already evident in '19--this time, all but 3 Northern ridings saw CPC + PPC on top.  (And of the remaining 3, said "united right" was less than a point short in Sudbury, 4 points short in Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing, and only in TBSN were they safely double-digits behind.)

[adma]

What seems more likely is what others have noted in this thread: East Asian groups are among those who have most complied with and support expanding when necessary pandemic restrictions. Perhaps it is something learned from SARS. Perhaps it is simply cultural and how before all this I often saw Japanese in Japantown go about their business with some form of face mask if they had a cold or flu. East Asians are however among the most vaccinated in the US. Pandemic politics puts these groups at odds with any party proposing or with the image of weakness on COVID. The points towards the Liberals in Canada and the Democrats in the US, which explains precinct data and increased relative demographic turnout from all three contests.

Just a guess. But it is becoming a observable trend with multiple datapoints.

Yeah, I agree.  They were "masking before masking was cool", so to speak, so it all comes second nature to them--and of course, the SARS crisis had a particular immediacy when it came to Toronto's Chinese.  So to them, CPC soft-pedalling would seem tin-eared, and PPC militancy outright unseemly.  (And within a society and culture marked by resolute discipline, Bernierite freedom-mongering is totally off-orbit--though one can understand how they might have found Stephen Harper's stolidity admirable.)

[adma]

Re: condos, the NDP's Breen Ouellette just achieved the party's best result in Vancouver Centre since Hedy Fry was first elected.

And that's still 4 points below Norm Di Pasquale (though yes, Hedy's not a disgraced independent).

Speaking of disgraced, that NDP suspended-campaigner Sidney Coles still managed to improve on '19 by a point in Toronto-St Paul's is noteworthy.  (And when it comes to *those* kinds of ridings, Vancouver-Quadra saw *its* best NDP result since, well, Hedy Fry was first elected.  And it had more "favourable" boundaries when the NDP pushed into the 20s in the 1980s.)

[adma]

Even if you factor in a PPC candidate in Calgary Centre, it seems to be a pretty resilient riding for the Conservatives. The average PPC vote in Calgary ridings was in the 4-6% range. If you straight-up take 5% from the Conservatives, they're still getting 46% and winning the riding by 17%. I still have a CBC tab open and I like that they have photos of the candidates. I don't want to bring race up like this, but it is notable that Skyview was the only one of the four Calgary ridings where they ran a minority candidate (although they did run women in two of them). If you factor in the 2011 redistributed results, this is the third election in a row with a massive swing (back and forth) in Calgary Skyview. But going back to Centre, I just don't get why the Liberals couldn't even at least make it close. However, to be honest, I've never really understood Calgary as a whole anyway. I know the whole oil business and whatnot and everything else, but it's a huge city and really unlike anything either in Canada or the US.

I have a better feel for Edmonton. It's long been a good city for the NDP. Apart from getting wiped out in 1993, they've held a seat there in the provincial legislature since 1982. In terms of provincial politics, it's always seemed like the Liberals used to do well in Calgary and the NDP had Edmonton. (Even more interestingly, the NDP held a rural Alberta provincial riding from 1971-1984. It was held by Grant Notley until his death in a plane crash. For those reading that don't know, yes, his daughter is none other than Rachel Notley.) It seems like any efforts in this election by the Alberta NDP are also attempts to build the grassroots movement for the next provincial election. This past month or so can kill two birds with one stone. I've always felt the Alberta NDP's biggest puzzle is Calgary. They dominated the city in 2015 on a split vote, but only hold three seats now. Interestingly, the strong NDP Calgary-McCall provincial riding seems to overlap with federal Skyview one. However, the other two provincial NDP Calgary seats seem to overlap with resilient CPC seats (it looks Centre and Confederation). Unless there's something to pull votes on the right, it feels like the Alberta NDP could win the popular vote by several points and still lose because they're getting 2015 numbers in Edmonton and not enough in Calgary. If I remember correctly, Edmonton, Calgary, and everything else are all about one third each.

An offbeat, paradoxical spin I might put on Calgary Centre is that O'Toole's establishment moderation plays well there, more so than in the other Calgary ridings.

Another thing this time is the unresolved conundrum of the *federal* NDP in Calgary, where they managed 15-20% in all but one riding (falling just a bit short in Signal Hill)--suggesting that maybe *they* should give it a better go in future runs.  (Though interestingly, it was only in the southern 3-riding tier--the most "Conservative", the least "Nenshi"--that the NDP finished 2nd.  They were also Calgary's only 5%+ PPC ridings *except for* Forest Lawn, which was by far their best and *also* had the best NDP share--and perhaps for racialized reasons, as the CPC incumbent was the only POC of the lot)

[adma]

Rural Western Canada is as strongly right-wing as it's ever been. Battle River-Crowfoot looks to be the strongest seat for the CPC, but in terms of actual vote margin, it looks like it was Foothills on account of higher turnout. The former still looks to be the most right-wing riding in the country, with the CPC, PPC, and Maverick Party combining to nearly 85%. That's actually down from the over 88% the combined parties got in 2019.

It seems like there, too, there was dead-cat-bouncing off Notleyesque NDP good will; for that riding, 9.79% is astronomical (and higher than in the differently-drawn Crowfoot in '11, one of only 2 single-digit NDP shares that year.  The other being none other than Portage-Lisgar--which *itself* is now over 10% NDP,)

[adma]

SNIP

The exact same pattern was detected in California's recent recall election where Asian, especially Vietnamese, areas swung significantly against the Recall compared to the 2020 Presidential election due to the centrality of pandemic restrictions during the campaign. Asian voters may be conservative in many ways but they have largely been immune to anti vaccine conspiracy theories. 

That's other data points I reference. OC obviously gets all the attention, but I checked out a few other counties that have easily downloadable precinct data. The only places in SF, despite being Newsom's home turf, that swung towards the Democrats when compared to Biden's margins have high East Asian populations: Sunset, China/Japantown, and the Excelsior. The were noticeable Democratic Primary turnout increases in East Asian parts on NYC like Queens during the summer. I suspect we might se something similar in the gubernatorial elections in a few weeks.

Important to remember Asian in US =/= East Asian, whereas Canada separates the East and Southern categories. Plenty of Asian voters in both upcoming states and in other parts of California fall under the latter subcategory.

I hate to say it, but I wonder if a certain right-leaning contingent doesn't care, because in their eyes the "China Virus" is all a setup.  Which leaves the Conservatives caught between a rock and a hard place, and which is why they're impelled to softpedal their stance on masks and vaxx because they *need* that racist-conspirazoid vote in order to "unite the right"...

[adma]

An NDP vote in southern Calgary is almost as meaningless as one in rural Alberta. That's Stephen Harper/Jason Kenney territory. It's about as meaningful as a Conservative vote in the heart of Montreal. 

I know it's *electorally* meaningless; nevertheless, it's interesting statistical noise, and perhaps reflects the NDP's present status as a more broadly appetizing big-tent vote-park than the Libs in places where "Alberta is Alberta".  Or, the Libs as the "Justin party" vs the NDP as the "Rachel party"--and *maybe*, in that electoral-symbiosis way, laying the ground for the next provincial election around these parts.

Perhaps that's the interesting thing about 2021 vs 2019 and 2015:  it's the first federal election conducted while *both* the provincial *and* the federal parties were walking on water, so to speak.  (In 2015, Albertans were already having morning-after remorse over electing the Notley gov't, and Mulcair was sideswiped by Justinmania.  In 2019, Notley was freshly defeated and Jagmeet hadn't yet found his sea legs.)

[adma]

Skeena - Bulkley Valley (NDP)

And *that* might be another interesting case--that is, in a post-Nathan Cullen era, it's more vulnerable than it looks (and in a manner akin to much of Northern Ontario).

Meanwhile, Niki Ashton slid 8 points, but vs a split opposition--she could only be plausibly defeated by the Libs; and despite the FN counter-endorsement, this wasn't the election to do it. And the Cons have a fatally low ceiling, unless they rack up astronomic margins in Thompson/Flin Flon/The Pas--still, they went up 4 points, PPC went up another 4 points, and that would have brought them within 14 points of Niki.  (And it's telling how from what I can tell, this and Desnethe et al were the only Prairie seats where CPC gained over '19--though the latter no longer had incumbency to overturn.  So, "speaking of in the manner of Northern Ontario"...)

[adma]

Churchill-Keewatinook is more indigenous than Skeena-Bulkley, so that probably limited the right-wing vote there.

Thus my "she could only be plausibly defeated by the Liberals" point.  But if the Cons manages Desnethe-riding-scale margins in its non-indigenous areas, and the NDP-Lib vote splits just right, who knows anymore...

[adma]

Re (as I figured) weaker-than-it-looked NDP ground games, too much Jagmeetian pixie-dust smokescreen and such, this is worth reading
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ndp-post-2021-federal-election-review-1.6187158