When will the next BC election be

[Lotuslander]

I'm guessing/hoping that the NDP and Greens will work together at least until the next BC municipal elections in November, 2018, which is when they're supposedly going to be having a referendum on electoral reform.

Even though holding a PR referendum is what the GreeNDP espoused during the spring, 2017 election campaign, I suspect it will be highly unlikely that the referendum will be held concurrently with the November, 2018 municipal election. A previous precedent on that matter has already been set.

1. A previous Campbell-led BC Lib gov't had planned to hold the 2nd STV referendum during the November, 2008 municipal elections.

2. Elections BC informed the then BC gov't that local municipal elections and a provincial STV referendum would need to be conducted under separate pieces of legislation- different rules, registration oversight, etc. for both.

3. IOW, individual municipalities would be holding their own municipal elections at polling stations with their own hired staff. OTOH, Elections BC would be required to hold the STV referendum at separate polling stations with their own hired staff.

4. Elections BC would incur the same cost of holding a referendum as that of holding an entire provincial election.

5. BC gov't also faced major political backlash from municipal politicians all over BC. Municipal politicians wanted their campaigns to focus on local issues - they did not want a provincial issue skewing their municipal campaigns.

6. Many months later, the Campbell Libs relented and held the 2nd STV referendum during May, 2009 provincial election.

Again, based upon the foregoing, it's highly doubtful that a PR referendum would be held during the November, 2018 muni elections - more likely during the next BC election.

That said, one other other option/precedent does exist however - the 2011 provincial HST referendum conducted by postal ballot.

Have not heard anything yet about the proposed PR referendum to date. Firstly a process needs to be established on what type of PR system will be adopted - likely requires a commission/panel to be appointed and then requires a lengthy, detailed public consultation period and a subsequent draft & then final report to be concluded. That process likely will take roughly ~1 year or more.

If the postal ballot referendum option is chosen, spring, 2019 would be likely the earliest date for a referendum. I highly doubt that it will pass. Nevertheless, let's suppose it does pass in ~May, 2019. And let's suppose that the form of PR chosen is MMP.

Subsequently a new BC Boundaries Commission panel will be required to be appointed to redraw the entire BC electoral map basically from scratch. One must also consider that the previous BC Boundaries Commission panel took roughly 1 1/2 years from date of appointment to final report and considerable more time elapsed before same was adopted by the BC legislature. A new BC Boundaries Commission panel would likely require even more time - perhaps 2 years all inclusive due to the complex task set before them.

Thereafter, Elections BC has already indicated that a new electoral process would take them at least 1 - 1 1/2 years to implement - new riding maps, etc., etc., etc. Both are lengthy processes. We are now into the year 2022/perhaps even into 2023. IOW, FPTP would still be in place  during the next BC election in any event.

[Lotuslander]

Frankly, there are too many "What Ifs" in attempting to determine the query posed in this thread. To wit:

1. In another thread herein I have previously postulated the ramifications of the BC Constitution Act, which only permits a majority vote of members of the House on any matter to receive royal assent. Speaker's vote not relevant on 3rd reading thereto. The BC Clerk of the legislature has already alluded to same in his diatribe at the opening of the current legislative session back in June. BTW, BC is the only province having its own so-called "Constitution Act".

2. The GreeNDP accord specifically states therein that "budget bills" are not "confidence votes". What if the Libs/Greens defeat a BC NDP budget? Normally, a defeat of a budget bill equates to non-confidence in gov't in the Westminster system. Even constitutional expert Philippe Lagassé has written that his major concern is that the BC NDP will state such a defeat will be a "non-confidence" matter leading to turmoil.

3. Previously in opposition, Saanich South BC NDP MLA Lana Popham stated that she would quit the BC NDP caucus if the BC NDP supported BC Hydro's Site C dam according to G & M's Justine Hunter. BTW, Justine Hunter has impeccable credentials and stands by her BC NDP caucus source.

In that vein, the GreeNDP gov't has now, on very narrow terms of reference, put BC Hydro's Site C matter to the BCUC for determination. By all accounts, that ToR will likely result in the BCUC approving continuation of the Site C dam, which has majority BC public opinion approval. Final determination will be made by BC NDP cabinet and Lana Popham is now the BC Agriculture minister. If the BC NDP cabinet agrees to permit Site C to proceed will Popham quit cabinet/caucus on principle as she previously stated?

4. Both Horgan and the Green's Weaver are egotistical "alpha males". Weaver is lambasting the NDP in the media re: recent Grizzly Bear trophy hunt ban, changes to labour relations code, etc., etc. Does anyone think this social partnership has longevity?

5. About 6 weeks after the May, 2017 election, both Ipsos and Mainstreet held that the BC Libs had 6% and 11% leads over the BC NDP respectively (compared to virtual tie just before e-day). Since then, the BC NDP gov't has been involved in quite a few  controversial issues. Will the BC NDP downward slide continue toward year-end?

6. In the BC Lib leadership thread, I had a detailed post about Dianne Watts as potential CC replacement. If that's the case, will be a BC poli game-changer IMHO. Since then, Province political columnist Mike Smyth thinks "she's in".

7. With CC resigning her Kelowna seat, one would think the BC NDP couldn't care less about a by-election, right now, that may potentially be 6-months out. So why, today, is BC NDP telling the media that they want their 2017 candidate to be their by-election candidate, if it's so far off? (BTW, in terms of by-elections, local constituencies typically take direction from HQ).

http://www.kelownadailycourier.ca/news/article_a694532a-8308-11e7-a322-7f8654c28395.html

8. Hypothetically speaking, if a Watts-led BC Lib party, next spring, enjoys a, let's say, 20% lead in opinion polls consistently, will the BC Greens continue to support the BC NDP? One would think that the BC Greens would "not want to wear" any major drop in BC NDP support.

I can go on and on re: soooo many potential "What Ifs?"

Nevertheless I am fairly certain that the current GreeNDP gov't should carry this stamp: