Pennsylvania Voter Registration

[TeePee4Prez]

I almost wonder if the democrats would be better off letting the GOP get more powerful in Philly (ala NYC), so that there isn't one party to blame when the city, predictably, turns into $hit.

Interesting points moose.  I kinda thought electing a moderate Republican like Katz in 2003 would help the Democrats in 2004.  I do think Michael Nutter's election won't put the Dems, especially Obama in such as bad light in places like NE or South Philly where Hillary dominated for obvious reasons.  I should say Smash has a good point in that a lot of the GOP voters are really following their true beliefs and voters in the suburban areas tend to be younger than say the Reagan Dems in places like NE Philly or upstate PA who won't bother to switch their registration.  I will give the GOP a ray of hope in that I do find 20-somethings from NE or South Philly more inclined to vote GOP and are more conservative than their suburban counterparts.  Some rich suburban 20-somethings I find extremely liberal for some odd reason going as far as Free Mumia which pissed even me off. 

[TeePee4Prez]

I do think Michael Nutter's election won't put the Dems, especially Obama in such as bad light in places like NE or South Philly where Hillary dominated for obvious reasons.

Nutter doesn't do that but other situations in the area don't help the already explosive racial tensions.

Well, the Skerski shooting didn't help Raj as much as I thought it would.  I know.. I know, I'm implying race in that but still.

[TeePee4Prez]

The National Republican Party needs to majorly reorient itself if it wishes to take back the Philly Burbs...

McCain's candidacy may or may not lay the groundwork for that reorientation, but I dont think he's going to cause a major sea change in suburban philly's view of national politics right away.  Sure he may be competitive because of Reagan Democrats, but any sort of lasting effect probably won't be seen in this cycle.

There are very few Reagan Democrats in this area and if there are, they're generally very old.

[TeePee4Prez]

Closed primary and a lot of folks wanted to vote for Clinton, but about a 150,000 voter gain for the Democrats.

Still doesn't bode well for the GOP.  One thing I noticed in the Northeast- not as many lawn signs for either side, but a lot of Obama signs once I head towards Montco.  I have a feeling turnout will simply be lower in NE Philly.  As of now I'm calling for the GOP to only win the 64th Ward and even that's narrow.

[TeePee4Prez]

Closed primary and a lot of folks wanted to vote for Clinton, but about a 150,000 voter gain for the Democrats.

Still doesn't bode well for the GOP.  One thing I noticed in the Northeast- not as many lawn signs for either side, but a lot of Obama signs once I head towards Montco.  I have a feeling turnout will simply be lower in NE Philly.  As of now I'm calling for the GOP to only win the 64th Ward and even that's narrow.

McCain has a clear advantage with signs in the NE (at least in the Far NE). I've seen a grand total of two Obama - Biden signs. Two.

I noticed a slight pickup in signs.  Then again I've seen more Obama signs in Mayfair of all places, but not outdoing McCain.  Then again in 2004, the Dems looked doomed if you would drive on Ryan Ave between Frankford and Rowland.  Not so much now.  I even noticed Raj beating Schwartz in 2006 on that logic.  Do lawn signs mean much? 

[TeePee4Prez]

Even more good news...

I found out that a bunch of local Democratic committeepeople will be pushing McCain and want to volunteer for door to door as soon as possible, directly undermining the wishes of their ward leader (who is at least nominally for Obama).

I drive through a very Republican part of Mayfair frequently and don't see too many McCain signs up.  There might be another part I'm missing here.  How do you explain the polls though?  Can Obama win without Northeast Philly this time?  I always knew it would be a matter of time before the Philly suburbs became more liberal and Democratic than the NE.  This maybe the beginning and is coming sooner than I thought for obvious reasons (see my bottom quote for a hint).  I have to concede the fact I've seen more Obama signs in the suburbs than in the NE.

[TeePee4Prez]

Even more good news...

I found out that a bunch of local Democratic committeepeople will be pushing McCain and want to volunteer for door to door as soon as possible, directly undermining the wishes of their ward leader (who is at least nominally for Obama).

I drive through a very Republican part of Mayfair frequently and don't see too many McCain signs up.  There might be another part I'm missing here.  How do you explain the polls though?  Can Obama win without Northeast Philly this time?  I always knew it would be a matter of time before the Philly suburbs became more liberal and Democratic than the NE.  This maybe the beginning and is coming sooner than I thought for obvious reasons (see my bottom quote for a hint).  I have to concede the fact I've seen more Obama signs in the suburbs than in the NE.

Obama must be totally demolishing McCain in the suburbs because he's not strong in the NE.

According to some polls, he is doing very well in the burbs.  I haven't seen any on the NE, but I have to concede Obama is losing votes from Kerry in the Northeast.  I also haven't seen any change in registration numbers here.  And I will never accuse you of racism because I know where you stand and we do think alike on some things, but don't you think it's sad McCain is getting some votes based on race?  I know for a fact he is and some Dem Committeepeople are voting McCain based on race I'm sure.       

[TeePee4Prez]

but don't you think it's sad McCain is getting some votes based on race?

Yes and I've said so several times (for the record).

 

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Absolutely

That said, do you know of the registration numbers out of the Northeast?  I get the sense that  there will be more of a Bradley-Wilder effect east of the Boulevard and in white blue collar neighborhoods "in transition" if you know what I mean.  Overall, I think Obama will lose a substantial portion of voters in the Northeast, BUT it won't be anywhere near as bad as Street-Katz.  I think he'll still pull off some of the more liberal areas, apartment complexes, and  will have decent union support giving him a narrow win in the Wards north of the Frankford Creek cumulatively.  Fox Chase (I'm seeing early signs here) and Mayfair could be ugly for us though. 

[TeePee4Prez]

but don't you think it's sad McCain is getting some votes based on race?

Yes and I've said so several times (for the record).

 

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Absolutely

That said, do you know of the registration numbers out of the Northeast?  I get the sense that  there will be more of a Bradley-Wilder effect east of the Boulevard and in white blue collar neighborhoods "in transition" if you know what I mean.  Overall, I think Obama will lose a substantial portion of voters in the Northeast, BUT it won't be anywhere near as bad as Street-Katz.  I think he'll still pull off some of the more liberal areas, apartment complexes, and  will have decent union support giving him a narrow win in the Wards north of the Frankford Creek cumulatively.  Fox Chase (I'm seeing early signs here) and Mayfair could be ugly for us though. 

Registration breakdown? Not sure.

It's going to be bad for Obama in a lot of areas east of the Boulevard (not just Mayfair).

Even tried looking at Comm. of 70's website.

East of Frankford Ave in some of the heavily Dem areas, I haven't seen too much support for either side.  I'm sure there are other areas as well.  I heard Obama is going to make a few campaign stops here if that says anything.  Again, if Obama gets more support in other parts of the city and the suburbs and ultimately wins the state, it's all that counts.  I know it used to be if NE Philly was going GOP, the state was.  Remember, Dem registration citywide is now 6-1.  There will still be a lot of union support for Obama and you have a lot of younger voters living in apartments in the NE who might have voted for Katz, but will definitely vote Obama.  I also have a feeling there will be lower turnout in the NE from 2004- don't want a black man, don't want Bush III. 

[TeePee4Prez]

East of Frankford Ave in some of the heavily Dem areas, I haven't seen too much support for either side.  I'm sure there are other areas as well.  I heard Obama is going to make a few campaign stops here if that says anything.  Again, if Obama gets more support in other parts of the city and the suburbs and ultimately wins the state, it's all that counts.  I know it used to be if NE Philly was going GOP, the state was.  Remember, Dem registration citywide is now 6-1.  There will still be a lot of union support for Obama and you have a lot of younger voters living in apartments in the NE who might have voted for Katz, but will definitely vote Obama.  I also have a feeling there will be lower turnout in the NE from 2004- don't want a black man, don't want Bush III. 

East of Frankford is tricky. We have some housing projects and more blacks moving into the lower parts of the NE. That being said, some of the white areas are pretty racist.

Obama stopped at the Mayfair Diner today. I don't know how great of a move that was. I think it actually helped motivate McCain voters (see my comments in my seperate thread on the 2008 board).

There may be some very low turnout in the NE but if there isn't, Obama is going to suffer.

At the end of the day, which will win- The Economy or Race?  That's what Northeast Philly boils down to.

[TeePee4Prez]

East of Frankford Ave in some of the heavily Dem areas, I haven't seen too much support for either side.  I'm sure there are other areas as well.  I heard Obama is going to make a few campaign stops here if that says anything.  Again, if Obama gets more support in other parts of the city and the suburbs and ultimately wins the state, it's all that counts.  I know it used to be if NE Philly was going GOP, the state was.  Remember, Dem registration citywide is now 6-1.  There will still be a lot of union support for Obama and you have a lot of younger voters living in apartments in the NE who might have voted for Katz, but will definitely vote Obama.  I also have a feeling there will be lower turnout in the NE from 2004- don't want a black man, don't want Bush III. 

East of Frankford is tricky. We have some housing projects and more blacks moving into the lower parts of the NE. That being said, some of the white areas are pretty racist.

Obama stopped at the Mayfair Diner today. I don't know how great of a move that was. I think it actually helped motivate McCain voters (see my comments in my seperate thread on the 2008 board).

There may be some very low turnout in the NE but if there isn't, Obama is going to suffer.

At the end of the day, which will win- The Economy or Race?  That's what Northeast Philly boils down to.

If McCain catches a break with this economic news for a week or so before the election, I think he'll be in amazing shape up here. Even with the bad economic news, the energy for McCain is awesome. I just think that there's too much of a disconnect between most white voters up here and Obama. It's not the same as the relationship between voters here and Nutter.

Going back to 2004, you also thought that with Melissa Brown vs. the Birkenstock, liberal Jewish woman who operated an abortion clinc.  We both know what happened there.

[TeePee4Prez]

East of Frankford Ave in some of the heavily Dem areas, I haven't seen too much support for either side.  I'm sure there are other areas as well.  I heard Obama is going to make a few campaign stops here if that says anything.  Again, if Obama gets more support in other parts of the city and the suburbs and ultimately wins the state, it's all that counts.  I know it used to be if NE Philly was going GOP, the state was.  Remember, Dem registration citywide is now 6-1.  There will still be a lot of union support for Obama and you have a lot of younger voters living in apartments in the NE who might have voted for Katz, but will definitely vote Obama.  I also have a feeling there will be lower turnout in the NE from 2004- don't want a black man, don't want Bush III. 

East of Frankford is tricky. We have some housing projects and more blacks moving into the lower parts of the NE. That being said, some of the white areas are pretty racist.

Obama stopped at the Mayfair Diner today. I don't know how great of a move that was. I think it actually helped motivate McCain voters (see my comments in my seperate thread on the 2008 board).

There may be some very low turnout in the NE but if there isn't, Obama is going to suffer.

At the end of the day, which will win- The Economy or Race?  That's what Northeast Philly boils down to.

If McCain catches a break with this economic news for a week or so before the election, I think he'll be in amazing shape up here. Even with the bad economic news, the energy for McCain is awesome. I just think that there's too much of a disconnect between most white voters up here and Obama. It's not the same as the relationship between voters here and Nutter.

Going back to 2004, you also thought that with Melissa Brown vs. the Birkenstock, liberal Jewish woman who operated an abortion clinc.  We both know what happened there.

Uh...I think this is a little different and you know it.

I know, I know... race.

BUT Melissa Brown also had about 20 lawn signs to 2 for Schwartz.  All looks relatively quiet here this time.  You were practically certain Melissa Brown was going to win the Northeast.  I'll even concede Obama won't get 60% of the vote in the Philly portion of the 13th, but he'll win it comfortably.

[TeePee4Prez]

I know, I know... race.

BUT Melissa Brown also had about 20 lawn signs to 2 for Schwartz.  All looks relatively quiet here this time.  You were practically certain Melissa Brown was going to win the Northeast.  I'll even concede Obama won't get 60% of the vote in the Philly portion of the 13th, but he'll win it comfortably.

No, it's more than just race. You're totally sheltered if you think that it's "quiet" this time. I've seen far more McCain signs than I saw Brown signs. It doesn't even compare. It's a totally different race with totally different factors.

If it isn't race then what is it?  War's unpopular.  Economy's in the crapper.  I guarantee you if Clinton or Biden were on top of the ticket, McCain's campaign would be nonexistant here and would have pulled out of PA months ago.

[TeePee4Prez]

I know, I know... race.

BUT Melissa Brown also had about 20 lawn signs to 2 for Schwartz.  All looks relatively quiet here this time.  You were practically certain Melissa Brown was going to win the Northeast.  I'll even concede Obama won't get 60% of the vote in the Philly portion of the 13th, but he'll win it comfortably.

No, it's more than just race. You're totally sheltered if you think that it's "quiet" this time. I've seen far more McCain signs than I saw Brown signs. It doesn't even compare. It's a totally different race with totally different factors.

If it isn't race then what is it?  War's unpopular.  Economy's in the crapper.  I guarantee you if Clinton or Biden were on top of the ticket, McCain's campaign would be nonexistant here and would have pulled out of PA months ago.

It's more than just the guy being black. It's the Muslim rumors, the Rev. Wright connections, the inexperience. People also like McCain here. People like the veteran story, the Scotch - Irish last name and how much do you want to bet that these people also think he's Catholic?

If it was Biden or Hillary at the top, yeah, it wouldn't be much of a contest. I don't think anyone concedes PA months before a General election (especially with Hillary since she's so polarizing) but I'd have no problem saying that either Hillary or Biden would win up here. The problem for you: Obama's at the top.

SCOTCH-IRISH?  Yeah, that's as bad, if not worse than saying English to an Irish Catholic.  I would love for you guys to play that up.  I think Joe Biden has the better of him on that in the Northeast.  As for the Muslim rumors and teh Rev. Wright crap, are people really gonna fall for that in spite of the economy.  Again, I'll say yes and give you a few of the more conservative areas of the NE tilting the GOP's way, but it won;t be overwhelming compared to Kerry. 

 

[TeePee4Prez]

First, I'm sticking with my prediction that Obama carries PA, but not by much.

Some of it is race, the Muslim/Wright stuff, but most of it is the "God and guns" comment.  That won't do it in Phila, but it will in the rest of the state.

Look at the polls.  They've been consistently double digits.