The only reason NJ was as close as it was in 04 was due to the Bush 9/11 bounce that he received in much of suburban NYC. A bounce which is gone for the GOP.
How Bush did in 04 is basically the best a Republican can do in NJ. Rudy might make it interesting, but he wouldn't win, no other Republican would have a shot in hell.
No, wrong, sorry. We disproved that in another thread already. This "9/11 bounce" liberals use to justify New Jersey's swing is negligable. Stop trying to use it. I'll go over it again if I have to, but I'd rather not.
Then link to your rebuttal.
I've seen other such attempted rebuttals before, but all of them ignore that Bush only made massive gains in the NYC metro. He made no gains in suburban Philly or Baltimore, just for two examples.
Hate to rain on you a little, but Bush did in fact gain in Bucks County, PA and all of Philly's New Jersey suburbs, albeit not as much as Ocean County, NJ or Rockland, NY. I think 9/11 had an effect on them considering they are closer to NYC, but Montgomery, Chester, and Delaware shifted Dem with Chester, PA coming on quite strong. I could very well see Chester going for a Democratic Pres for the first time since LBJ.
