Liberal or Democratic?

[TeePee4Prez]

Maine-  Liberal
Vermont- Liberal
Connecticut- Both
Rhode Island- Democratic
Massachusets- Both
New York- Both
New Jersey- Liberal
Pennsylvania-  Democratic in the West, Northeast and Philadelphia, Liberal in Montgomery, Bucks, and Delaware Counties
Washington D.C.- Democratic
Maryland- Democratic
Delaware- Liberal
Michigan- Democratic
Minnesota- Both
Wisconsin- Both
Illinois- Democratic
California- Liberal
Oregon- Liberal
Washington- Liberal
Hawaii- Democratic

[TeePee4Prez]

Pennsylvania - Democratic (if it weren't for ancestral Dems in the west this state would be more Republican than Ohio)

From what I'm hearing, we're holding our own out west.  Granted, I think Fayette, Greene, and Beaver will eventually drop, but will be made up for by Chester and Monroe in the east.

[TeePee4Prez]

Pennsylvania - Democratic (if it weren't for ancestral Dems in the west this state would be more Republican than Ohio)

From what I'm hearing, we're holding our own out west.  Granted, I think Fayette, Greene, and Beaver will eventually drop, but will be made up for by Chester and Monroe in the east.

You guys are losing support in almost every county in the West, including Alleghany

Trend:


Not so buddy!  Take a look east.  Your gains out there are futile and the Trends are based on the national level.  We would not be "more Republican than Ohio".

[TeePee4Prez]

For the Dems...
Some Gains in the East, particularly in the Southeast...but only in presidential elections...no real translation to the state level (state house, senate, many of the counties) which may indicate that while in presidential elections, southeastern PAers may be voting Democrat, but its because they're voting against Bush and voting against this particular strand of social conservativism rather than voting for Gore/Kerry. You may see this type of voting in the Senate race this fall.

The dems do have some positive points...they're getting stronger in the parts of the state that are the fastest growing...the main question is the type of growth, are they the typical suburban republicans? Philly democrats who are sick of the city? if in the case of the former, then flyers' optimism is not well founded, if the latter, the dems are in decent shape, but must walk the fine line of city/suburban divide.

Rethink what you just said.  Montgomery we flipped 2 state House seats (one of them with a sitting incumbent and the other was previously held by the very popular Ellen Bard) and almost got 2 more.  We also came very close to flipping one in Delco.  Plus you have to admit that a few in Bucks and a few more in Montco and Delco will flip upon retirement of the current incumbent.  As for the Philly Dems sick of the city, well I'm one of them and as for national/state poltics, my opinions as are many others, are going nowhere. 

[TeePee4Prez]

For the Dems...
Some Gains in the East, particularly in the Southeast...but only in presidential elections...no real translation to the state level (state house, senate, many of the counties) which may indicate that while in presidential elections, southeastern PAers may be voting Democrat, but its because they're voting against Bush and voting against this particular strand of social conservativism rather than voting for Gore/Kerry. You may see this type of voting in the Senate race this fall.

The dems do have some positive points...they're getting stronger in the parts of the state that are the fastest growing...the main question is the type of growth, are they the typical suburban republicans? Philly democrats who are sick of the city? if in the case of the former, then flyers' optimism is not well founded, if the latter, the dems are in decent shape, but must walk the fine line of city/suburban divide.

Rethink what you just said.  Montgomery we flipped 2 state House seats (one of them with a sitting incumbent and the other was previously held by the very popular Ellen Bard) and almost got 2 more.  We also came very close to flipping one in Delco.  Plus you have to admit that a few in Bucks and a few more in Montco and Delco will flip upon retirement of the current incumbent.  As for the Philly Dems sick of the city, well I'm one of them and as for national/state poltics, my opinions as are many others, are going nowhere. 

3 house seats? thats it? thats not that many...and I don't know if I could hang my hat upon that (and as for the possible open seat races, we'll see when we get there).

What I am talking about Flyers is that its all well and good to be a suburban democrat...and vote democratic...but they're still suburbanites...and the democrats have been able this far...to not stir up city-suburban tension...I don't know how long that will last...and if it doesn't that could be very very very porblematic.

hmm, you're right about the city-suburban tension, but whether that will help the GOP is yet to be seen.  In the 1980s there was much more of it plus Reagan which the Dems got all out trounced in SEPA.  Even NE Philly saw 6 Republicans sent to the State House with many Dems being knocked off between 1978-1984.  Difference is national politics are crushing any chance of a GOP comeback in this area save NE Philly because of the city administration.

[TeePee4Prez]

See the suburban-urban divide was a good GOP issue in the 1980s, one of the reasons why the GOP won Bucks, Montco, Delaware...

The area was also MUCH more conservative then.

[TeePee4Prez]

Yeah, but the same issues remain and influence voting in the same way...suburbanites fear whats happening in the cities happening to them (more or less)...and to some degree, people associate that (especially before, but still now) with the democratic machines. You can argue whether thats fair or not, but thats how they see it...

For instance..."John Street is ruining Philadelphia. We left Philly because it sucks. Oh John Street's a Democrat...better watch out for those city democrats, don't let them do to X County what they did to Philadelphia"

Back in the 80s that was easy enough...the burbs were republican anyway...but now with the Democrats getting stronger, they're gonna have to walk a fine line..."We're democrats, but we're not like those guys downtown." It seems like a hard line to walk, without ruffling feathers internally that is.

Well, your theory holds SOME weight because Kerry's numbers declined a little bit from Gore's in Northeast Philadelphia because of Street, but at the end of the day Democrats prevailed.  Allyson Schwartz and a few others do a pretty good job of disassociation from the Democratic party downtown.  What really ticked off a lot of people with regards to Section 8 is in the 1980s a lot of the high rise projects were being imploded and the residents of those were getting vouchers into working class residential areas.  This created a lot of animosity, but apparently if you look at election results since 1992, that's mostly water under a bridge and the Dems really don't need to worry too much about it so long your party keeps nominating hard line right wingers. 

[TeePee4Prez]

Pennsylvania - Democratic (if it weren't for ancestral Dems in the west this state would be more Republican than Ohio)

From what I'm hearing, we're holding our own out west.  Granted, I think Fayette, Greene, and Beaver will eventually drop, but will be made up for by Chester and Monroe in the east.

You guys are losing support in almost every county in the West, including Alleghany

Trend:


Not so buddy!  Take a look east.  Your gains out there are futile and the Trends are based on the national level.  We would not be "more Republican than Ohio".

I already explained that map, but I guess I'm just gonna have to break it down:

Erie County:  Gannon University, Penn State Behrend, Mercyhurst College, Edinboro University

Crawford County:  Allegheny College

Indiana County:  IUP

Clarion County:  University of Clarion

Allegheny County:  DUP, Pitt, Carlo College, Carnegie-Mellon

Butler County:  Slippery Rock

Centre County:  Penn State University

As for all the small counties, Bush probably just maxed out his support there.  The only county I can't explain in this way in Elk County.

No offense, but you seem to fabricate excuses as to why Pennsylvania is trending GOP.  Compared to the national average, we actually trended Dem albeit very slighly.  You also keep harping on this "New Deal Die-off" in western PA, but now your excuse is college kids.  I'm just pointing out the inconsistencies in your arguments.

[TeePee4Prez]

This stuff about Pennsylvania is getting annoying.  Let me sum up every thread about Pennsylvania since the last election:

SE trending Dem, SW trending Rep, Santorum is probably going to lose, the end

Shut up.  You are probably really from New Jersey.

Let's not be vulgar here.

LOL... okay... saying the someone is from New Jersey is steping over the line, I will admit.

Yeah man...its not like you have to live near that godawful state.

Overall, I'll take New Jersey over most parts of PA.

[TeePee4Prez]

This stuff about Pennsylvania is getting annoying.  Let me sum up every thread about Pennsylvania since the last election:

SE trending Dem, SW trending Rep, Santorum is probably going to lose, the end

Shut up.  You are probably really from New Jersey.

Let's not be vulgar here.

LOL... okay... saying the someone is from New Jersey is steping over the line, I will admit.

Yeah man...its not like you have to live near that godawful state.

Overall, I'll take New Jersey over most parts of PA.

Over all, I would take West Virginia over Philadelphia.

That's sad.