Santorum and Obama - Who's Next 2005

[TeePee4Prez]

If Hoeffel can do as well as Kerry, he can win. Seeing as his politics are similar, he could win. Klink lost because he couldn't rally up support. Hoeffel has the potential to do very well in the Philly suburbs. The Dems need the Philly suburbs more than the Pittsburgh area.

The Dems can have the Philly suburbs. If Santorum can pick up his numbers just a bit in the Pittsburgh area, Santorum wins. Hoeffel win NOT have the turnout that Kerry had. Hoeffel's liberal record will be known. Joe Hoeffel vs. Rick Santorum means six more years of Santorum.

The only candidate that can beat Santorum is Casey. It looks like he's considering a run. If he does run, that's when I'll admit that the Dems will pick up the seat. Under any other circumstance, Santorum wins.

Philadelphia's metro area is growing fairly quick.  A good number of these people are transplants from New York and north Jersey.  Most of these are Democratic.  Granted the city itself is declining.  Santorum is not a liked figure in Southeastern PA, which has a bulk of the population of PA.  I'll admit Santorum will pick up some of Klink's support out west though very slightly, but I think the Dems have bottomed out in that region to begin with.  He will lose drastically in the Southeast.  People will still have a grudge against Bush losing and Santorum will be the #1 target for the DSCC.  His being lock-step bosom buddy with Bush will be widely known and we will be just as energized to defeat Santorum as we were Bush.  Better hope the televangelists/RW Catholic nutjobs turn out for you guys. 

[TeePee4Prez]

If Hoeffel can do as well as Kerry, he can win. Seeing as his politics are similar, he could win. Klink lost because he couldn't rally up support. Hoeffel has the potential to do very well in the Philly suburbs. The Dems need the Philly suburbs more than the Pittsburgh area.

The Dems can have the Philly suburbs. If Santorum can pick up his numbers just a bit in the Pittsburgh area, Santorum wins. Hoeffel win NOT have the turnout that Kerry had. Hoeffel's liberal record will be known. Joe Hoeffel vs. Rick Santorum means six more years of Santorum.

The only candidate that can beat Santorum is Casey. It looks like he's considering a run. If he does run, that's when I'll admit that the Dems will pick up the seat. Under any other circumstance, Santorum wins.

Philadelphia's metro area is growing fairly quick.  A good number of these people are transplants from New York and north Jersey.  Most of these are Democratic.  Granted the city itself is declining.  Santorum is not a liked figure in Southeastern PA, which has a bulk of the population of PA.  I'll admit Santorum will pick up some of Klink's support out west though very slightly, but I think the Dems have bottomed out in that region to begin with.  He will lose drastically in the Southeast.  People will still have a grudge against Bush losing and Santorum will be the #1 target for the DSCC.  His being lock-step bosom buddy with Bush will be widely known and we will be just as energized to defeat Santorum as we were Bush.  Better hope the televangelists/RW Catholic nutjobs turn out for you guys. 

Your Howard Dean liberals of Montco and Chestnut Hill won't be enough to beat Santorum. They can be energized all they want. It won't be enough without Casey.

Newsflash.. I STILL LIVE IN NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA!!!  Besides NE Philly, came out for Allyson Schwartz, a supposed "to liberal for the Northeast and the district" and spanked your girl Melissa Brown by 23 points.  And don't give me this weak campaign manager crap.  She had John Perzel as chairman.  People knew of her Section 8 "crusade".  NO EXCUSES!

Ok, remember 2000.  Klink still came within 7 and got virtually no supprt of the DSCC.  He had no money and was an unknown in SE Penn, which virtually locked the suburbs for Santorum due to Specter's support.     

[TeePee4Prez]

I just love how you said Allyson didn't connect, but hey she had the money and she won!  The Dem came very close last time with practically no money and almost won.  If a Dem equals on $$$ or even comes close, they usually win!

[TeePee4Prez]

The conservative Dem swing is quite simple- the Catholic church.  I see it to a small extent here, but it's much larger in western PA.  I know the mentality.  You would think getting these people back home to the Dems would be easy, but in the case of my father, it has been quite difficult.  He has virtually bought every stupid sound byte dished out by Karl Rove and the various bishops except for maybe the anti-union ones.  Like him, most of these people are also pissed at the DNC not letting Bob Casey speak in 1992 at the Convention.  I think that was a part of the Dems demise in PA are the older "I was once a Democrat" folk remember that to this day and now could be easily sold on the fact the Dems are the "immoral party".  The good news about PA in the long run is the 18-34 vote went for Kerry by 34 points!  This was one of the highest in the nation.  What this will equate to in 2006, time will tell.