Future PA-13 races

[TeePee4Prez]

2006: Schwartz vs. Taylor

Schwartz 54-Taylor 46.  Due to the popularity of John Taylor, he decides to run for Congress and wins Northeast Philadelphia narrowly.  He has trouble in the more liberal 56th and 58th Wards where he is not as well known.  Schwartz widens her 2004 margins in Montgomery County due to NARAL and Planned Parenthood.  The latter groups demonize Taylor as a religious zealot in Montgomery County via mailings. 

2008: Schwartz vs. Kenney
Schwartz 56-Kenney 44.  George Kenney is getting a lot of pressure from Brendan Boyle who many analysts say will finally take him.  His wife urges him to run for Congress since his children are grown.  Does well in divisions close to his, but has trouble elsewhere.

2010: Torsella vs. Fox

Torsella 63-Fox 37.  Allyson Schwartz abandons the PA-13 seat to run for Arlen Specter's Senate Seat.  Jon Fox, a Montgoemry County Republican, makes a last ditch attempt to reclaim his former Congressional seat.  The GOP establishment likes this idea.  Joe Torsella, a relatively young and bright person, makes another run at this seat.  Fox's past ultra-conservatism comes out and Torsella smells like a rose.

More to come.  Keystone let me know if any changes.

[TeePee4Prez]

2030: Keystone Phil v. BacardiLimon.

Who knows...that might happen one of these days...

It may.  I'm thinking balpark 2020-2030.  We'll get to that one.  I'll revise 2010 as the following:

2010: Torsella vs. Weber

Torsella 53- Weber 47.  Allyson Schwartz abandons seat to run for Arlen Specter's open seat.  Former 2004 primary candidate Joe Torsella runs for this seat again and wins narrow primary against an ultra-lberal EMILY's List candidate.  Republican State Rep John Perzel is ebgged ot run, but declines.  The next most attractive choice is Melissa Murphy Weber.   

[TeePee4Prez]

2012: Torsella vs. Weber (yep again)

Torsella 57- Weber 43.  The 13th District is creeping left.  Torsella is incumbent (yawn).

2014:  Torsella vs. DeFelice

Torsella 52-DeFelice 48.  Battle of the Italians.  In this mid-term election, the Democrats yet again have some serious problems nationally.  Northeast Philadelphia Republican Joe DeFelice is popular and wins his home neighborhood of Mayfair overwhemingly after briefly representing them since John Perzel's retirement.  He pulls out a NE Philly victory, but NARAL rescues Torsella in Montgomery County.    

more....  

[TeePee4Prez]

2016: Torsella vs. some Montgomery County doctor

Torsella 58- theoretical doctor 42. Yawn.

2018: Shapiro vs. some current Montco YR I never heard of.

Torsella makes run for Joe Hoeffel's Senate seat due to retirement.  Shapiro wins!

..........

2030:  Guinan vs. Innamorato. DA DA DA!!

Two complete newcomers to this race both from Northeast Philadelphia Catholic high schools.  Who knows what the district will look like by then.    

[TeePee4Prez]

How does re-districting change the 13th in 2012?

Ah that's true. Take that into consideration, BL. I totally forgot about it. As for how it will change the 13th, Akno, we don't know. That's up to the State Legislature and it's too early to tell what they would do with the districts.

We may be in totally different districts by then and there may be some political newcomers by then we never even heard of.

[TeePee4Prez]

And I may move to Montco.  Hey you vs. Fabbi!  In 2030, I'll be 50 and Phil you'll be what 42?

[TeePee4Prez]

And I may move to Montco.  Hey you vs. Fabbi!  In 2030, I'll be 50 and Phil you'll be what 42?

Yes, I'd be 42 and I would win in a landslide against Fabbi 

You always underestimate that kid.

[TeePee4Prez]

Innamorado sounds a lot like 'enamorado', which is Spanish for 'in love'

My last name means "in love" in Italian.

Have no idea what mine means in Gaelic.

[TeePee4Prez]

And I may move to Montco.  Hey you vs. Fabbi!  In 2030, I'll be 50 and Phil you'll be what 42?

Yes, I'd be 42 and I would win in a landslide against Fabbi 

You always underestimate that kid.

We can debate this elsewhere but he's an absolute joke. Like I said, if you want to debate his ability in politics, that should be done elsewhere. Let's keep it to PA 13.

Yes, i'll stop.  We shouldn't talk about anyone.  To tell you the truth, I don't even know what my ability would be in politics.

[TeePee4Prez]

And I may move to Montco.  Hey you vs. Fabbi!  In 2030, I'll be 50 and Phil you'll be what 42?

Yes, I'd be 42 and I would win in a landslide against Fabbi 

You always underestimate that kid.

We can debate this elsewhere but he's an absolute joke. Like I said, if you want to debate his ability in politics, that should be done elsewhere. Let's keep it to PA 13.

Yes, i'll stop.  We shouldn't talk about anyone.  To tell you the truth, I don't even know what my ability would be in politics.

There are plenty of  Howard Dean liberals in Montco  

I know that.  I can probably switch gears to Mayfair tap rooms easily though.  Might help.  Funny I don't think many people confront candidates on abortion or social issues as much as they used to around here.  In the 1980s, I would say a lot moreso.   

[TeePee4Prez]

Well I think this should go to the PA 13 thread to avoid disgruntled folk in here.

[TeePee4Prez]

I'd like to hear some of your what if scenarios.

[TeePee4Prez]

2006 - Stack vs. Castor

Incumbent Allyson Schwartz decides that after only one term in the U.S. that she wants to take on Rick Santorum in the 2006 Senatorial race (which she loses by 10 points...).

State Senator Mike Stack, who recently moved into PA 13, decides that after winning re-election by 32 points, that he can win a Congressional race. He wins a tough primary against State Rep. Mark Cohen, winning by just 2 points.

On the Republican side, Montco DA Bruce Castor runs unopposed in the Republican primary (after Al Taubenberger drops his bid after only two months in the race).

The General Election arrives, Stack takes the NE by a good margin but Castor wins Montco easily.

Castor - 54%
Stack - 44%
Other - 2%

Won't happen.  Schwartz will hold this seat.  She'd be foolish to attempt the Senate.  Castor has said repeatedly he will not run.

2008 - Castor vs. Cohen

Cohen wins the Dem nomination with no competition but the General Election brings yet another big Castor win.

Castor - 56%
Cohen - 43%
Other - 1%

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The Dems will NEVER elect Cohen.  For crying out loud the guy's Quasimodo and has poor speaking skills.  The Dems will fins someone more articulate to beat him easily.  I do like the fact Cohen is involved with growing the party, but for Congress, NO WAY!

2010 - Taylor vs. McGeehan

Castor decides not to seek re-election. Instead, he runs in the GOP primary for Specter's open Senate seat. Rep. John Taylor of the Northeast Philadelphia runs in the GOP primary against Ellen Bard. Taylor wins big in the Philly section of the district but has a tough time in Montco. He still wins the nomination, though, and is starting his General Election campaign.

Mike McGeehan, recently elected to the City Council, decides to run in the Democratic primary. Allyson Schwartz, the former Congresswoman, decides she'd like to take the seat back. She jumps in the race and is seen by most to be the favorite. The Primary arrives and the upset happens. McGeehan unites the NE Dems and has a big turnout at the polls. McGeehan - 51%   Schwartz - 49%.

Taylor vs. McGeehan is seen as a battle for the NE in the General Election. In the end, Taylor wins the NE by a narrow margin: 51-49.  Montco is another big fight but with Castor's vocal support for Taylor, the Republican State Rep. wins the county.

Taylor - 51%
McGeehan - 48%
Other - 1%

More to come tomorrow...

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Funny, I like McGeehan.  Despite the fact he's pro-life, I would consider him.  Race would NEVER come to fruition though.

[TeePee4Prez]

I'll admit though the Republicans may in fact have this seat for about 6 of the next 24 years.  Thing is the 13th could be in Central PA and completely new districts could be the result of the next Census.  Now I like the Boyles, but they would not make it out of a primary because they are pro-life if the 13th were to stay intact. 

Oh geez, I'm not that liberal.  I'm probably a tad to the right of Schwartz.  I'll admit that between Schwartz and Torsella in terms of ideology, I probably was closer to Schwartz, but Torsella's potential winnability was the key factor in my decision.

[TeePee4Prez]

Oh geez, I'm not that liberal.  I'm probably a tad to the right of Schwartz.  I'll admit that between Schwartz and Torsella in terms of ideology, I probably was closer to Schwartz

The way I see it, you would run on economic issues in the NE and I would focus more on social issues in an Innamorato-Guinan race.

DING! DING!

[TeePee4Prez]

Just to comment from a Montco perspective:

You are right, Weber has a good chance of picking her seat back up in 2006...the only reason she lost this year was because of the Rendell flap.

KP is right Jon Fox is done with politics, after losing a state house race by 10 points (also considering it was held by a very popular Republican), I highly, highly doubt we'll hear from him again.

Josh Shaprio will run for PA-13 before 2018.  I expect him to run when Schwartz goes for the open seat vacated by Specter in 2010 or perhaps a state office sometime sooner.

Keep posting here more often, I clueless to Montco politics.  All I know is the Dems out there are mostly ardent social liberals, but you apparently are the exception.  How often do you find a pro-life Montco Dem?  I sometimes find myself the minority in many places in NE Philly for being pro-choice even among Dems.     

I hope Gerber can keep his seat and I think he just may.  Do you think we'd ever hear from Ellen Bard again? 

[TeePee4Prez]

Bicardy Lemon is his name. and people wonder why the northeast is going down hill. its all drunkin white trash democrats.

Learn how to spell.  Oh and what is your problem?  Yeah I'm glad to see another Democrat from the city here, but to call me white trash, you have one nerve pal.  I like to drink, but what does that have to do with you calling me white trash? 

[TeePee4Prez]

Bicardy Lemon is his name. and people wonder why the northeast is going down hill. its all drunkin white trash democrats.

Learn how to spell.  Oh and what is your problem?  Yeah I'm glad to see another Democrat from the city here, but to call me white trash, you have one nerve pal.  I like to drink, but what does that have to do with you calling me white trash? 

learn how to spell? i am sorry for not being an expert on the spelling of beer. white trash, i classify that as someone who calles elected officials bastards and pricks etc for no apparent reason. I consider white trash to be a drunk who enjoys drinking so much that he feels the constant need to advertise it by making it his name.
you and i are right on the issues! we are right! but nobody listens because you have to make us look bad by insulting people and dragging their names through the mud. i come from south philly where this happens all the time and it makes me sick. i just felt the need, and will keep doing so until you stop, to give you a taste of your own medicine. because i am tired of being a philly democrat and not being taken seriously because of people like you.

Read Akno21's post.  Yes, I have a college degree and have worked on a campaign.  Ok, I may result to name calling a lot, but hey I'm from Philly.  Then again, you come on here and start calling me white trash and you don't know me.  I find it very odd that your first few posts were directly aimed at me and belittling me to boot.

The Philly Democratic party is VERY strong, but at the same time factionalized.  I feel it's because of the makeup of certain localities.  Northeast Philadelphia Democrats, for example, have a tightrope to walk.  They can't get too close to Street and other black pols or else their neighbors will get pissed and say their pandering to the blacks, but they need to be close for support and financing.  A lot of our problems stem from a few things my friend:

   -  The Catholic church's GOP bias on selected issues
   -  The false notion that federal tax dollars get diverted from hard 
      working whites to pay for "black" programs
   -  The "tough cop" mentality prevalent in a lot of NE and South Philly
       neighborhoods

I'll put these topics out for now, but I'll elaborate on them later.  Think about these before you bash me for being such a horrible Democrat.

[TeePee4Prez]

Keystone, this is an in-house scuffle between 2 Democrats.  I don't feel like going over the other points with you again because we already have.  The GGW thing was a joke.  Don't take it to heart. 

[TeePee4Prez]

Keystone, this is an in-house scuffle between 2 Democrats.  I don't feel like going over the other points with you again because we already have.  The GGW thing was a joke.  Don't take it to heart. 

Infighting between 2 Democrats but my comments had a point. You are asking what DownTheCenter's problem is and I want to know what your problem was. GirlGoneWild wasn't a joke. It was a desperate attempt on your part to save yourself a job. You found an opportunity to attack me on a personal level by disguising yourself. And to say that we went over your comments that were directed towards me is a flat out lie. My point: Don't complain about people attacking you personally when you have done the same thing.

Ok, I apologize to you for my immaturity.  Thing is though we've been on here for some time so we are going to trade online barbs.  This guy hasn't introduced himself or made any political talk and goes right to bashing me.  I find it very odd this guy's from South Philly and you're quick to defend him.  Just a thought.