2023 New Zealand general election (14 October)

[DL]

Well if NZ swings right it could be part of larger trend where progressive leaders be it Sanna Marin, maybe Pedro Sanchez (but today's election inconclusive), and Ardern who are were all seen as examples progressives looked up to.  Yes you still have Macron and Trudeau although Macron pretty centrist so as was case when Trump won in 2016, it once might again fall to Trudeau is the champion for progressive policies in West.

We still have Joe Biden and in a year's time there will be Keir Starmer.

Macron only seems "progressive" because he faced off against Marine LePen twice, but he has been a very rightwing President more cut from the cloth of Valery Giscard d'Estaing than anyone from the French left.

[DL]

Well if NZ swings right it could be part of larger trend where progressive leaders be it Sanna Marin, maybe Pedro Sanchez (but today's election inconclusive), and Ardern who are were all seen as examples progressives looked up to.  Yes you still have Macron and Trudeau although Macron pretty centrist so as was case when Trump won in 2016, it once might again fall to Trudeau is the champion for progressive policies in West.

We still have Joe Biden and in a year's time there will be Keir Starmer.

Macron only seems "progressive" because he faced off against Marine LePen twice, but he has been a very rightwing President more cut from the cloth of Valery Giscard d'Estaing than anyone from the French left.

Joe Biden true although quite centrist and not charismatic like Obama.  Keir Starmer likely also in office but Biden, Scholz, and Starmer all sort of your boring types which is fine but get less attention.  But still you are right Biden could be described as somewhat progressive.

We don’t here much about Australian PM Albanese who remains quite popular after his first year

[DL]

Why is ACT suddenly polling so well? They used to be just a one seat party and now they seem set to win a dozen. In what way are their policies any different from the National Party?

It’s actually always surprised me that New Zealand has remained as much of a two party system as it is given it has an electoral system that would favour the formation of many smaller parties

[DL]

How much of a difference will it make to the program of the new government that National+ACT did not get a majority together and that they need to also deal with Winston Peters?

[DL]

New Zealand seems to be one of the few remaining places in the western world where the rightwing party still does reasonably well in major cities. In Canada, the US, the UK, increasingly Australia and also in France...cities are now strongholds of left of centre parties and urban conservatives are on the endangered species list

[DL]

New Zealand seems to be one of the few remaining places in the western world where the rightwing party still does reasonably well in major cities. In Canada, the US, the UK, increasingly Australia and also in France...cities are now strongholds of left of centre parties and urban conservatives are on the endangered species list

True in general although even there only true in Auckland and there seems heavily split on income.  In fact Auckland almost looks like Vancouver did provincially back when BC Liberals were in power with right doing well in well off and heavily Asian areas while left in more working class and heavily Pacific Island areas.

But there are some exceptions here as Madrid is 3rd largest metro area in Western Europe (only London & Paris larger) yet it is very conservative.  Oslo and Helsinki right only wins because left shows bigger splits as parties to left of Social Democrats do well there while struggle in rest of country.  Italy also sort of does as very central parts of Milan vote left, but city as whole and especially metro area quite conservative.

I'm not so sure about Madrid being "very conservative" - I think the right narrowly controls the Madrid region which includes outlying exurbs and satellite towns - but Madrid itself has a leftwing mayor. and in the last Swedish election Stockholm swing somewhat left while the rest of the country swung right

[DL]

UK at least in London while Labour as a whole, Tories do win the central London seats (may lose next election though) like Kensington, Cities of London & Westminster, Chelsea & Fulham.  Now true some like Battersea and Putney swung away recently despite rightward swing nationally.  And in three mentioned margins have come down in last few elections in contrast with national numbers.

I get impression when left wing alternative is a liberal socially progressive type, wealthier urban areas have easier time voting for them (Canadian Liberals, US Democrats for example) then when a social democratic party.

I also think wealthier urban areas turn left when the traditional right of centre party morphs into a rabidly populist, xenophobic anti-intellectual party. Notice how in the recent election in Alberta the strongest swings from UPC to NDP were in the wealthiest ridings in Calgary. Look at how in Manitoba where the PCs tried to play the race card they got annihilated in Winnipeg and the premier came within 200 votes of losing the richest seat in the city that was previously considered a rock solid safe Tory seat.

I wonder when and if there will be a similar pattern in New Zealand?